Presentation Title Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Health, Energy, Tourism, and Macroeconomics Bangkok October 2012

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Health Climate change will likely affect disease, ozone pollution, heat stress, and cold spells Climate change will permit vector borne diseases (e.g. malaria) to migrate to new areas Ozone will form more rapidly from precursors in warmer temperatures Heat waves could pose an increasing risk Cold spells likely to decrease

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Adaptation to Vector Borne Disease The prevalence of vector borne disease decreases rapidly as incomes rise- people and society can afford to take precautions- likely to be a smaller risk by the end of the century Spray and manage ecosystems to control mosquitoes and other vectors Use nets and repellants to reduce contact Treat disease when it appears

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Ozone controls Precursors to tropospheric ozone are nitrogen oxides and VOC emissions Reduce emissions to reduce ozone Reduce exposures by providing warning systems to populations of high ozone concentrations

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Controlling Heat Waves Temporary high temperatures (heat waves) are linked to acute premature mortalities, hospital visits, and asthma attacks Exposure can be reduced by providing cooled indoor refuges (e.g. shopping malls, sports halls) People can reduce outdoor exertion during hottest hours- alter workday away from heat

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Energy for Cooling Primary protection from heat is to increase cooling Cheap alternatives such as fans and high ceilings Expensive alternative- air conditioning; demand for energy will increase People have adapted to warmer climates and warmer days with more cooling capacity and more electricity for cooling Could become important issue in Asia as wealth increases including issues of inequality

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Energy for Heating Heating costs fall as climates warm; People change which fuel they use for heating depend on outside temperature People use much less fuel as temperatures warm Benefit of warming

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Tourism Tourism for indoor attractions such as historic buildings, museums, and churches are not likely to be climate sensitive Outdoor tourism will be affected by climate change because of relative preferences for temperature and ecosystem changes International tourism often motivated by people from cold places seeking warm places- warming of home and excessive warming of destination may be harmful

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Tourism Ecosystem changes could hurt locations with valuable ecosystems Loss of coral reefs will hurt island tourism Loss of rare or charismatic species will hurt ecotourism Longer warm season will likely help most outdoor tourism (especially water-related) Shorter cold season will hurt winter tourism (skiing)

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Tourism Adaptation Lengthen tourist season Dynamic conservation to protect valuable ecosystems Develop new tourist destinations in places formerly too cold

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Interactions Across Sectors Water and agriculture are bound together in Asia which depends heavily on irrigation Important to examine climate impacts on agriculture and water together so that plans to use more irrigation to solve agricultural issues are consistent with water availability Forestry and agriculture adaptations must be consistent with a fixed land base

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Macroeconomic Issues Large scale impacts and adaptation responses could alter wages and prices If they do, entering such changes into a macroeconomic model can give refined estimates of final impacts Important that macro models be accurately estimated or will give unreliable responses Difficult to sometimes include climate impacts in macro models

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Cautionary Tales Some macroeconomic models being promoted to developing countries give counterintuitive results –Tighter environmental controls will not be costly –Environmental controls will increase jobs If adaptation efforts or impacts are modest as a fraction of GDP, there is no need for macroeconomic models