La Crosse ASHRAE Meeting December 9, 2008 Larry Butz GEA Consulting Environmental Update

Agenda Ozone Depletion Refrigerants Global Warming/Climate Change Energy Alternatives Buildings Energy Use Water Shortages

Ozone Hole Stabilizes The size of this year's Antarctic ozone hole is slightly above the 10-year average in both depth and overall area. Last year's ozone hole broke records for both ozone loss within the critical layer and for the size of the area affected Nov 2008

Radiative Forcing Long-Lived GHGs WMO GHG Bulletin 2008

Halocarbon Concentrations WMO GHG Bulletin 2008

Refrigerants Coke deploys 100,000 CO2 units by 2010 Ben & Jerry’s tests 50 HC units GE unveils plans for first HFC-free household refrigerator to be built and sold in the U.S.; Submits hydrocarbon refrigerant for EPA approval (isobutane) HCFC 22(new equipment) phaseout 1/1/2010 DuPont and Honeywell make HFO-1234yf progress

GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach Last update: 26 September 2008 Carbon Budget 2007 Global Warming & Climate Change

Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC : 0.9% y : 3.5% y Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)

Regional Shift in Emissions Share Percentage of Global Annual Emissions Kyoto Reference Year FCCC Kyoto Protocol Adopted Kyoto Protocol Enter into Force Current J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication 62 % 57 % 49.7 % 47 % 38 % 43 % 50.3 % 53 %

Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Carbon intensity (KgC/US$) Kg Carbon Emitted to Produce 1 $ of Wealth Photo: CSIRO

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005 Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y -1 Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y -1 Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y Tropical deforestation 13 Million hectares each year Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change 1.5 Pg C y -1 Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm [2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions: = 10 Pg]

Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) 1.5 Pg C y Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 46% 4.2 Pg y -1 Land 29% 2.6 Pg y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3 Pg y -1

Climate Change at 55% Discount Natural CO 2 sinks absorb 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions slowing down climate change significantly. They are in effect a huge subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS).

1.The rate of CO 2 emissions. 2.The rate of CO 2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans: –Land: CO 2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, … –Oceans: CO 2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, … Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

% CO 2 Emissions in Atmosphere Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 2006 Decline in the Efficiency of CO 2 Natural Sinks Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere Emissions 1 tCO 2 400Kg stay Emissions 1 tCO 2 450Kg stay

Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

65% - Increased activity of the global economy Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy 18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks : 2.0 ppm y – 1979: 1.3 ppm y – 1989: 1.6 ppm y – 1999: 1.5 ppm y -1 Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO 2 To: Economic growth Carbon intensity Efficiency of natural sinks (calculations based on the period )

Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are growing x4 faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving slower than previous decades. Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon than Developed Countries. Conclusions (i)

The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO 2. All these changes have led to an acceleration of atmospheric CO 2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected. Conclusions (ii)

Global Warming 2008 Set To Be About 10th Warmest Year – La Nina kept a lid on temperatures in 2008 despite an underlying warming trend, Carbon dioxide was up most in It increased to ppm, ½ % more than the 2006 amount. Methane and nitrous oxide rose by lesser amounts, "CO2 alone is responsible for 90 percent of the greenhouse gas warming over the last five years,"

Water Vulnerabilities

Freshwater Global water consumption is doubling every 20 years, Water, unlike oil, has no substitute Climate change is altering the patterns of freshwater availability in complex ways It is often grossly underpriced—and hence squandered The water footprint of China is about 700; Japan 1150; U.S m3 per year per capita. Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed water supply. – For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.

Water Shortages by 2025, two-thirds of the world's population will face periodic and often severe water shortages In sub-Saharan Africa 42% of the region's population lacks access to a safe water supply aging infrastructure, inadequate treatment facilities, and contamination pose more problems. Freshwater already is exported via tankers between France and Algeria and Turkey and Israel.

To Produce - 1 cup of coffee we need 140 liters of water - 1 liter of milk requires 1,000 liters of water - 1 kg of rice requires 3,000 liters of water - 1 kg of beef we need 16,000 liters of water Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed water supply. For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.

WaterFootPrint Network Seven global groups, including WBDSC, joined forces to set up the Water Footprint Network, with the aim of working towards a common approach to water footprint measurement, accounting and reporting.

Clean Energy 2008

Renewables Benchmark EUAs traded down to euros a tonne on Friday, the lowest level since March 2007 and 50 percent below a 2-year high of euros hit last July. "In places that rely on carbon credits to support new projects, such as China, India and Latin America, the fall in price will delay or possibly kill the marginal, less economically viable projects, In 2007 new investment in sustainable energy reached record levels of $148.4 billion, 60% higher than in 2006.

New international agency to promote renewable energies – International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). – is meant to be the first truly international organisation offering both industrialised and developing countries support The EU has adopted a binding target to source 20% of its energy needs from renewables by 2020 Renewables

Energy Efficiency the only by-product of energy efficiency is wealth, in the form of lower fuel bills and less spending on power stations, pipelines. Etc greater efficiency accounts for two-thirds of anticipated emissions savings energy intensity is lower in countries where electricity prices are higher

Energy Efficiency in Buildings

Buildings Buildings already account for up to 40% of primary energy use and demand will grow rapidly with economic development, population growth and changing lifestyles

The vast majority of energy consumption occurs during a building’s occupation.

Costs to LEED Certify

Cost of Efficiency Gains

Information Links IPCC: World Meteorological Organization: Waterfootprint: International Energy Agency: Alliance to Save Energy: World business Council for Sustainable Development: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: California Institute for Energy and Environment: Center for Energy and Climate Solutions: CleanEdge: Consortium for Energy Efficiency: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. DOE: Energy Information Administration, U.S. DOE: ENERGY STAR, U.S. EPA: Industrial Assessment Center, U.S. DOE: Industrial Technologies Program, U.S. DOE: www1.eere.energy.gov/industry International Association of Energy-Efficient Lighting: North American Insulation Manufacturers Association: Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships: U.S. Green Building Council: World Energy Efficiency Association:

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