Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution in Europe Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Methodology

GAINS model: GHG-Air pollution Interactions and Synergies Objectives Integrated assessment of international emission control strategies: Quantification of national emission control potentials and costs For exogenous projections of activities Balancing of efforts across countries/economic sectors for –different objective functions, and –different exogenous constraints Considering interactions between GHGs and air pollutants Taking into account co-benefits between air pollution control and GHG mitigation

GAINS integrates multiple pollutants and their multiple effects Emissions and control measures for air pollutants PM BC OC SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 Impacts Health impacts: from fine particulate matter  from ground-level ozone  Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops)  Acidification (forests, water)  Eutrophication (biodiversity)  Emissions and control measures for air pollutantsand greenhouse gases PM BC OC SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs PFCs SF 6 Impacts Health impacts: from fine particulate matter ()() from ground-level ozone ()() Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops) ()() Acidification (forests, water)  Eutrophication (biodiversity)  Radiative forcing: - from direct greenhouse gases  - via aerosols and ozone ()()()()()()()()()()()()

Building blocks of GAINS Energy/agricultural projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions Costs PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI, IEA, nat. projections Simulation/ “Scenario analysis” mode

The GAINS optimization mode Energy/agricultural projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Costs Environmental targets OPTIMIZATION PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI, IEA, national projections Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions

Applications for the Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone Adopted in November 1999, 26 parties, entered in force in May 2005 Sets country-specific emission ceilings for 2010 for SO2, NOx, VOCs, and NH3 Reductions in Europe (relative to 1990): –SO2 – 63%, –NOx – 41% –VOC – 40% –NH3 – 17%. Based on RAINS analysis Benefits: –Less ecosystems with excessive acidification (78 Mha) and eutrophication (57Mha) –Number of days with excessive ozone levels halved –47,500 fewer premature deaths –Exposure of vegetation to ozone 44% lower Currently under revision; GAINS used as a scientific tool

Current and future (2020) emissions of air pollutants in Europe and Russia, kilotons Europe Russia – European part

Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months 2020 Baseline (4.7 months) 2000 (8.2 months)

Emission control costs of further reductions in health effects of PM

Loss in statistical life expectancy - base year and optimized 75% reduction in health effects from PM

Costs for achieving 75% improvement of health effects from PM

Use of GAINS to explore co-benefits of climate policy for air pollution

Low carbon strategies have significant co-benefits Low CO 2 strategies result in less SO 2, NO x and PM emissions, lower damage to health and vegetation from reduced air pollution, cost savings for air pollution control equipment, which compensate (part of) GHG mitigation costs. CO 2 emissions vs. health impacts (YOLLs) ● EU-27 ● China ● India

On-line calculator on the Internet

Why actively participate in integrated assessment ? 1.Better understanding of preparatory work for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol 2.Correcting current information in GAINS 3.Possibility of analyzing effects of national pathways and control strategies like: - different demand for energy, - emission reductions, their environmental impacts and costs of technologies from technical annexes - effects of grace periods or derogations in technology implementation 4. Analysis of co-benefits of climate scenarios for air pollution 5. Analysis of costs of reduction of GHG (GAINS GHG Mitigation Efforts Calculator)

The GAINS model is freely accessible on the Internet: Access to on-line versions: –Europe –China and East Asia –South Asia –Annex I countries Policy reports, user tutorials, model documentation.