Business (as Usual) and the Environment Mortar Board Last Lecture March 3, 2004

My teachers.

Economy - Environment economyenvironment

Business View economy environment

An Environmentalist View economy environment

Sustainable View economy environment

Global Warming

MARCH 19, 2003 “After a Cold Winter, Europe Asks the US to Increase Global Warming” BRUSSELS — After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, leaders of the European Community have appealed to the United States to do more to increase global warming. BRUSSELS — After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, leaders of the European Community have appealed to the United States to do more to increase global warming.

BBC News Friday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMT “Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today.” “Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today.” - Sir David King, UK government’s chief science adviser

Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide – fossil fuel combustion. Carbon dioxide – fossil fuel combustion. Methane – fossil fuel production, decomposition of organic wastes. Methane – fossil fuel production, decomposition of organic wastes. Nitrous oxide - agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels. Nitrous oxide - agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels.

Humans emit 24 billion tons per year. Atmospheric CO 2

Average Earth Temperature increased 1 o F during 20 th Century

Current temperature is the highest in 1000 years.

Projected Global Temperature Change

Temperature Increase: 3 o F – 10 o F by 2100

Impacts Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level, Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level, Change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies Damage ecosystems. Damage ecosystems. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands.

Extinction of Species

Recent Letter in “Nature” Extinction risk from climate change Nature 427, (08 January 2004); doi: /nature02121 On the web at

Results of the Study “ When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate- warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid-range (24%) and maximum-change (35%) scenarios.”

Between 1/5 and 1/3 of all species will become extinct in your lifetime!

Most of us ignored this report. Most people ignore environmental problems, do not understand them, remain inactive, hope everything works out well, or don’t connect the science with reality.

A few were skeptical. There is a very strong consensus among scientists that global warming has a dominant anthropogenic component.

The US has not developed a CO2 Reduction Plan Bush administration emphasizes energy production and consumption.

Why is the US responding in this way? Since global warming will affect us, our friends, our families, and the world around us, we should take responsible actions to mitigate its effects.

Compare to US response to air pollution! By 1970, air pollution had become a major US health problem

Pollutants Gases – CO, SO x, O 3, NO x, and VOC Gases – CO, SO x, O 3, NO x, and VOC Particulates and aerosols Particulates and aerosols

Photochemical Smog Ozone is formed when UV radiation, high temperatures, Nitrogen oxides, and VOCs combine. Automobiles are the main source.

Acid Rain Sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) and nitric (HNO 3 ) acid are formed and precipitated on vegetation in lakes and streams. Automobiles and coal plants are the main sources.

The Environmental Protection Agency Created in 1970

EPA Environmental Protection Agency Mike LeavittChristine Todd Whitman

Clean Air Acts 1955, 1963, 1970, 1990

Command and Control Strategy Automobile emission standards are an example of the “Command and Control” strategy. Automobile emission standards are an example of the “Command and Control” strategy. Emission standards are set and enforced by EPA. Emission standards are set and enforced by EPA.

Catalytic Converter Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, CO2 Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, CO2 Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium or a ceramic. Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium or a ceramic. Add $500 to cost of car. Add $500 to cost of car.

Have EPA Strategies Worked for Pollution Emission by cars? Pollutant VOC 16.9 (41*) 4.9 NOx 11.5 (28*) 8.2 CO 163 (400*) 75 Emission by On-Road Vehicles ( million short tons) Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual. Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles. Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual. Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles.

Power Plant Emissions Use Cap and Trade strategy.

Cap and Trade Utilities are assigned allowances - permission to emit a ton of sulfur dioxide Utilities are assigned allowances - permission to emit a ton of sulfur dioxide Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry them over into the next year. Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry them over into the next year.

Scrubbers Remove SO2 from coal plant exhaust. Adds at least 10% to the cost of a coal plant.

The Clean Air Act Worked!

Why is dealing with Global Warming so much more difficult?

Global Warming is not a clear and present danger.

Global Warming does not immediately threaten human health.

Global Warming is not the result of an impurity like sulfur in coal.

Global Warming is the direct result of consuming Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal. We get 85% of our energy from fossil fuel C + O 2  CO 2

There are no technical fixes like scrubbers or catalytic converters.

Costs of mitigating global warming are seen by some to be greater than costs of adapting to global warming.

Global Warming is not a local problem.

Compare to US response to stratospheric ozone depletion!

Depletion of the Ozone Layer

Antarctic Ozone Hole was a clear and present danger. Science was well-understood.

Human health as well as ecology was threatened.

Technical fixes and favorable economics led to international treaties.

Montreal Protocol 29 countries plus the European Union signed initially 29 countries plus the European Union signed initially All have agreed to a phase- out schedule All have agreed to a phase- out schedule Globally emission of ODPs has been drastically reduced to around 10% of original levels. Globally emission of ODPs has been drastically reduced to around 10% of original levels.

Kyoto Protocol The US does not support the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty to reduce global warming.

US Objections to Kyoto Developing nations not bound, initially. Developing nations not bound, initially. Reducing fossil fuel use would disrupt US and global economy. Reducing fossil fuel use would disrupt US and global economy.

But, we can not avoid our responsibility. US has 5% of world population, but emits 25% of GHG.

The scientific evidence is solid.

We can not wait to see what happens.

Species extinction is imminent.

Extinctions are permanent. Recovery from mass extinctions takes millions of years. Recovery from mass extinctions takes millions of years.

The next great extinction event will be caused by humans. KT Extinction Event KT Extinction Event All dinosaurs became extinct. All dinosaurs became extinct. 65 million years ago. 65 million years ago. Caused by meteor impact. Caused by meteor impact.

Global Change is our greatest environmental challenge. Threat is based on computer models not measurements. Threat is based on computer models not measurements. The damage is in the future, not the present. The damage is in the future, not the present. Mitigation may be expensive. Mitigation may be expensive. Mitigation requires global action. Mitigation requires global action. Effects are irreversible. Effects are irreversible.

What can we do?

Mitigation Reduce CO2 emissions by reducing consumption of fossil fuel. Reduce CO2 emissions by reducing consumption of fossil fuel. Protect rainforests and other CO2 sinks. Protect rainforests and other CO2 sinks.

Adaptation Protect endangered species with larger refuges. Protect endangered species with larger refuges. Avoid flooding risks. Avoid flooding risks. Protect water supplies. Protect water supplies. Protect grasslands and agricultural lands against overuse. Protect grasslands and agricultural lands against overuse.

Impacts depend on emissions.

We must switch from fossil fuels to sustainable energy

Future sustainable energy mix will include many sources. Conservation Conservation Passive solar Passive solar Active solar Active solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic Wind Wind Hydroelectric Hydroelectric Geothermal Geothermal Fuel cell technologies Fuel cell technologies Hybrid electric vehicles Hybrid electric vehicles

Reducing fossil fuel consumption alleviates environmental problems Reduce CO2 emissions Reduce CO2 emissions Reduce air pollution Reduce air pollution Reduce extraction impacts (e.g. oil spills) Reduce extraction impacts (e.g. oil spills) Reduce use of water and other resources. Reduce use of water and other resources.

Global Oil Resources will be increasingly concentrated in Middle East Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq11% Iran10% Kuwait10% UAE6% Russia5% United States 3%

Global Problem Requires Global Action We can learn from Less Developed Countries and we can help them avoid our mistakes

Switching from fossil fuel must be based on international treaties. Cap and Trade could work on global scale. Cap and Trade could work on global scale. Include the costs of current and future environmental impacts. Include the costs of current and future environmental impacts. Let market forces control global energy development. Let market forces control global energy development. Encourage innovation. Encourage innovation.

Sustainable Development Rio Declaration on Environment and Development Principle 3 The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations.

Sustainable Future? We must be concerned with the economic and environmental needs of future generations as well as our own needs.

Questions?