Future prediction of tropospheric ozone over south and east Asia in 2030 Satoru Chatani* Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc. Markus Amann and Zbigniew Klimont.

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Presentation transcript:

Future prediction of tropospheric ozone over south and east Asia in 2030 Satoru Chatani* Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc. Markus Amann and Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Arabinda Mishra and Sumit Sharma The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Jiming Hao, Shuxiao Wang, Yuxuan Wang and Bin Zhao Tsinghua University 12th Annual CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC, October 28-30, 2013

GDP, energy, and CO 2 in Asia  Significant increase of energy consumption and CO 2 emission due to rapid economic growth. 2 （ IEA, 2012 ）  Predict effects of emission increases due to future economic growth on tropospheric ozone over south and east Asia.  Seek effective scenarios which suppress future energy consumption, CO 2 emission, and tropospheric ozone.

Flow of this study 3 Current energy consumption Current CO 2, NOx, and VOC emission Current ozone simulation Validation of simulated ozone Future energy prediction for multiple scenarios Future emission Abatement costs for multiple scenarios Future ozone simulation for multiple scenarios Best future scenarios Energy scenarios Emission inventory Air quality simulation

Structure of the simulation 4 Emission in China Tsinghua University Emission in India TERI Emission in other Asia IIASA Ship emission EDGAR ver.4.1 Biomass burning GFED ver.3.1 Biogenic VOC estimation model MEGAN ver Regional meteorological model WRF-ARW ver Global chemical transport model MOZART-4 Regional chemical transport model CMAQ ver Spatial allocation Speciation (Byun and Schere, 2006) (Skamarock et al., 2008) (Emmons et al., 2010) (Van der Werf et al., 2010) (European Commission, 2010) (Guenther et al., 2006)

Target domain  Mesh size 60×60 km  Vertical layers 41 (WRF) 28 (CMAQ)  Model top 5639 Pa (19.5 km)  Bottom layer height 34 m 5 Black : WRF Red : CMAQ

Simulated surface ozone  High concentration over mid-latitude from India to Japan in spring and autumn.  Shifted to north in summer. Maximum around northeastern China.  Shifted to south in winter. Decrease around northeastern China.  Low concentration around the equator for whole year. 6 Horizontal distributions of simulated seasonal surface ozone [8hr maximum within bottom 3 layers (134m)]  Target period : November 2009 – December 2010

Performance of surface ozone  Good except for overestimation in summer. 7 Comparison with EANET surface ozone data (Network Center for EANET, 2012)

Performance of vertical ozone profile  Good including upper troposphere. 8 Comparison with ozonezonde (WOUDC)

Performance of tropospheric NO 2 column  Good in absolute values, horizontal distribution, and seasonal variation. 9 Comparison with OMI tropospheric NO 2 column (OMNO2)

Performance of tropospheric ozone column  Similar features in horizontal distributions. 10 Comparison with OMI/MLS tropospheric ozone column (Ziemke et al., 2006)

Future scenarios  Designed to separately evaluate effects of potential energy and environmental strategies. 11 ScenarioYearEnergy strategiesEnvironmental strategies BASE2010 BAU02030 Assume current policies and compliance. PC02030 Assume new energy- saving strategies, including; life style changes, structural adjustment, and energy efficiency improvement. (Only in China and India) PC12030 Assume new pollution control strategies, representing the “best guess” of future environmental policies. (Only in China and India)  Change NOx and VOC only.  Ship, biomass burning, and biogenic VOC emissions are unchanged.

Predicted energy and CO 2  Significant increase of energy and CO 2 due to economic growth.  Potential energy strategies realize 30% decrease. 12

Predicted NOx and VOC emissions  Significant increase of NOx and VOC emissions due to economic growth.  Energy and environmental strategies realize comparable to (India) or lower (China) emissions than BASE. 13

Future simulation cases  Meteorological fields are the same as (Future climate change is not considered.) 14 CaseEmissionOther BASE BAU0noxBAU0 (NOx only) + BASE BAU0vocBAU0 (VOC only) + BASE BAU0 BAU0o3BAU0+5 ppb boundary O 3 * BAU0ch4BAU0+400 ppb background CH 4 * BAU0taBAU0-5 degC temperature PC0 PC1 *Based on Dentener et al. (2006)

Future changes of surface ozone  Significant increase for whole year in India and in summer in China.  Energy and environmental strategies could suppress increase. 15

Effects of NOx and VOC  Significant increase is mainly caused by NOx.  Negative effects of NOx are observed in eastern China in winter. 16

Effects of external factors  Effects of background ozone and CH 4 are compensated.  Warmer weather around India contributes to significant increase. 17

Effects of potential strategies  Effectively suppressed for whole year in India and in summer in China.  Negative effects disappear following decreasing NOx. -> Change regimes from VOC-limited to NOx-limited. 18

Overall effects on monthly ozone in regions  Increase in BAU0 and suppressed by strategies for whole year in India and western China.  Same in eastern China in summer, but opposite in winter. 19

Overall effects on annual ozone in regions  Negative and positive effects of NOx in eastern China are compensated. VOC and boundary O 3 are relatively important.  Effects of NOx are dominant in western China and India. Effects of VOC increase after significant NOx increase.  Potential strategies are effective to suppress ozone in surrounding countries as well as China and India. 20

Summary  A regional air quality simulation framework to simulate tropospheric ozone over South and East Asia has been constructed. Its performance was acceptable.  The simulations predicted significant increase of surface ozone for whole year around India and in summer around north eastern China in BAU0. It is mainly caused by increasing NOx. Warmer weather also contributes to it.  Potential energy and environmental strategies would effectively suppress significant increase of surface ozone.  Increasing VOC, background O 3 and CH 4 are relatively important on annual surface ozone around north eastern China. 21  It is desired that energy and environmental strategies assumed in this study are implemented to suppress tropospheric ozone as well as energy consumption and CO 2 over South and East Asia.

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Structure adjustment of power plants Share of various power generation technologies

Domestic energy use Urban Cooking & Hot water Rural Cooking & Hot water

Increase of EV and bio-fuel vehicles Electric vehicles -BAU Electric vehicles -PC Bio-gasoline developmentBio-diesel development

Emission control scenario for vehicles [0] [1]

Cost effectiveness analysis (power plants)