Dr. David M. Kohl Professor Emeritus Agricultural and Applied Economics Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA (540) (Alicia Morris) (540) (Angela Meadows) Weekly Website Columns: Ag Globe Trotter: Road Warrior of Agriculture:

Future Agricultural Business Environment 2025 l 70% of North American farm ground will change hands by 2025 l one size will not fit all local, natural, organic traditional large complex business l special interest groups & consumers will drive business models l water & oil will be the limited resources l media & information technology management challenges l women & minorities will drive business models l economic moderation in G-20 nations l emerging economics / BRIC Nations critical in planning l volatility will be the new normal l balance in business & life

Five Dimensions of Agriculture Food Fiber Life Experiences Life SciencesFuel

Percentage of World GDP

Century of Super Cycles Commodities Boom Rapid Global Real Growth (average annual % change) N/A4.8%4.0%3.5% Conflict & Geopolitical Uncertainty First World warKorean warYom Kippur & Vietnam wars Iraq conflict InflationWidespreadLimitedWidespreadLimited Significant Infrastructure Investment First World warPostwar reconstruction NoneChina Centered onMetals, agriculture Oil, agriculture Oil, metals, agriculture % Increase in Prices (previous trough to peak) 34%47%59%131% Years of Rising Prices Prior to Peak 4325 Common Characteristics: Source: World Bank

World Growth Source: U.S. 0.1% Brazil -1.2% GDP Growth % 2010 Latest Quarter Figures February 11, 2010 Australia 0.6% Mexico -6.2% China 10.7% Japan -5.1% Indonesia 5.4% Canada -3.2% France -2.3 % Euro zone 4.0% Britain -3.2% South Africa - 2.1% India 7.9% South Korea 6.0% Germany -4.8% Iceland -7.2% Russian Fed %

Final Thoughts on the Road Ahead l interdependent vs. independent l people skills- emotional intellect l total systems management l interconnections local national international l scenario planners l business planner & strategy execution l P = O + C + L + M 2