GLOBIOM Methodology and implementation P. Havlík, M. Herrero, H. Valin, M. Obersteiner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya Agrimonde-Terra: Animal Productions. Food and feed future demand. CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013

Outline Model overview Livestock sector modelling Scenarios (SSPs) Results 5. Conclusions

1. Model overview

GLOBIOM: Global Biosphere Management Model Partial equilibrium model: Agriculture, Forestry, Bioenergy DEMAND SUPPLY

GLOBIOM Supply functions Demand functions Spatial equilibrium model a la Takayama & Judge Maximization of the social welfare (PS + CS) Recursively dynamic (10 year periods) Supply functions implicit – based on spatially explicit Leontief production functions: production system 1 (grass based)  productivity 1 + constant cost 1 production system 2 (mixed)  productivity 2 + constant cost 2 Demand functions explicit: linearized non-linear functions

Supply Chains Natural Forests Managed Forests Short Rotation Tree Plantations Cropland Grassland Other natural land Bioenergy Bioethanol Biodiesel Methanol Heat Electricity Biogas Wood products Sawn wood Pulp Livestock products Beef Lamb Pork Poultry Eggs Milk Crops Corn Wheat Cassava Potatoes Rapeseed etc… LAND USE CHANGE Wood Processing Bioenergy Processing Livestock Feeding

Main exogenous drivers: Population GDP Technological change Bio-energy demand (POLES team) Diets (FAO, 2006) Output: Production Q - land use (change) - water use - GHG, - other environment (nutrient cycle, biodiversity,…) Consumption Q Prices Trade flows

Spatial resolution Homogeneous response units (HRU) – clusters of 5 arcmin pixels Source: Skalský et al. (2008)

Spatial resolution Simulation Units (SimU) = HRU & PX30 & Country zone Source: Skalský et al. (2008)

Crops - EPIC Processes Major outputs: Weather Hydrology Erosion Carbon sequestration Crop growth Crop rotations Fertilization Tillage Irrigation Drainage Pesticide Grazing Manure Major outputs: Crop yields, Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon, nitrogen leaching) 20 crops (>75% of harvested area) 4 management systems: High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence

Crops - EPIC Relative Difference in Means (2050/2100) in Wheat Yields [Data: Tyndall, Afi Scenario, simulation model: EPIC]

Grasslands – CENTURY/EPIC Source: EPIC model (t/ha DM)

Forests – G4M Downscaling FAO country level information and forest growth functions estimated from yield tables Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)

2. Livestock in GLOBIOM

Gridded Livestock of the World – Robinson et al. (2011)

Livestock production systems distribution Sere and Steinfeld (1996) classification updated by Robinson et al. (2011)

Livestock sector coverage Livestock categories: Bovines: Dairy & Other Sheep & Goats: Dairy & Other Poultry: Laying hens, Broilers, Mixed Pigs Production systems: Ruminats Grass based: Arid, Humid, Temperate/Highlands Mixed crop-livestock: Arid, Humid, Temperate/Highlands Monogastrics Smallholders Industrial

Production systems parameterization Herrero, Havlík et al. forthcoming

Production systems parameters Livestock numbers 1000TLU Productivity kg/tlu/y FEED GHG emissions GRAZING kgDM/tlu/y Manure STOVER N_Excretion OCCASIONAL Entferm_CH4 kgCO2eq/tlu/y GRAINS ManmgtTot_CH4 Barl ManmgtTot_N2O Corn MansolTot_N2O Puls ManaplTot_N2O Rice ManprpTot_N2O SgMi Soya Whea CerO OlsO CrpO Anim Herrero, Havlík et al. forthcoming

Feed intensity of milk production Herrero, Havlik et al (forthcoming)

Non-CO2 intensity of milk production Herrero, Havlik et al (forthcoming)

3. Scenarios

IAM & IAV (“IPCC”)scenarios matrix approach SSPs x RCPs https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about

5 SSPs along 2 dimensions

Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). (O’Neil, 2012)

World population

World GDP per capita

Semi-quantitative elements: Land use and Agriculture

Crop yield development

Projected feed conversion efficiencies [kg protein product / kg protein feed]

Human diet preferences [kcal/cap/day]

Losses and wastes development in the Oilseeds&Pulses sector [%]

4. Results

Consumption per capita – Ruminant meat – World [kg/cap/y]

Consumption per capita – Monogastric meat – World [kg/cap/y]

Consumption per capita – Dairy – World [kg/cap/y]

Animal calorie consumption in 2050 [kcal/cap/day]

Production – Ruminant meat – World [000 tonnes]

Production – Monogastric meat – World [000 tonnes]

Production – Dairy – World [000 tonnes]

Feed – Coarse grains – World [000 tonnes]

Production – Coarse grains – World [000 tonnes]

Area – Coarse grains – World [mio ha]

Commodity price index

Bovine meat exports [000 tonnes]

Bovine meat imports [000 tonnes]

Bovine meat production by system [000 tonnes]

Average crop yield change over 2000-2050 [%]

Additional nitrogen consumption compared to 2000 [%]

Additional irrigation water consumption compared to 2000 [%]

Cropland expansion 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

Grassland expansion 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

Net forest area change 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

Greenhouse gas emissions - World [Mio tonnes CO2eq]

5. Conclusions

Further reading AnimalChange deliverables Journal articles D2.1. Storylines for livestock sector scenarios in EU, studied SICA regions and global level, consistent with the IPCC AR5 detailed for the livestock sector D2.2. Preliminary scenarios of the developments in agricultural commodity markets, livestock production systems, and land use and land cover Journal articles Havlík, P., Valin, H., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M., Baker, J. S., Herrero, M., Rufino, M. C. & Schmid, E. (2013). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95 (2), 442—448. Valin, H., Havlík, P., Mosnier, A., Herrero, M., Schmid E. and Obersteiner M. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environmental Research Letters, under review.

Thank you ! havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at www.globiom.org