S YNERGIES B ETWEEN M ITIGATION AND A DAPTATION T HROUGH A GROFORESTRY AND C OMMUNITY F ORESTRY Louis Verchot

Climate Change is Here Lake Tanganyika: Steady increase in rainfall over last century Steady increase in rainfall intensity (erosivity) over last century

Climate Change is Here Observed Changes Green = wetter Orange = drier (Source: Goddard and Graham, 1999)

What can we expect from climate in the future? Short answer: more of the same!

Maize yield Change in yields < >2000 Jones and Thornton (2003)

Despite the efforts of scientific and development organizations increase in agricultural productivity in SSA is slow. All cereals (5.2 hg ha -1 over 33 years) Maize (6.8 kg ha -1 over 33 years) Source: FAOSTAT

Since 1985 cereal yields have stagnated. Source: FAOSTAT

Increases in agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa have been largely through the extensification of agriculture. Source: FAOSTAT

The result is increasing food insecurity in SSA

How does all this relate to regional development aspirations? The combination of population growth, expansion of farming to marginal land, inappropriate agricultural practices, and climate change leads to some dramatic land degradation, which compromises future sustainable development.

We need to consider ‘adaptation’ for agricultural productivity because The primary drivers of  Clim are not going to stop Global conventions are not sufficiently effective to stop the increase of GHG concentrations Mitigation effects will only provide a partial ‘softening’ of the effects of CC Therefore, local climates and terrestrial ecosystems will change, threatening biota and human livelihood, Yet, we hope that food & fibre production, ‘environmental services’ and ‘rural livelihoods’ can improve, not just maintained

Farm level sustainability challenges Land access Markets (inputs, outputs; access, prices) Knowledge (basic principles, innovative cap.) Technologies (strategic & tactical interventions) Water (drought, flooding, irrigation, drainage) Soil fertility Pest & disease On-farm labour (HH size, off-farm act., illness) Weeds Potential production of germplasm used Angry neighbours Dissatisfied customers  C signal ** * * *

Agroforestry and community forestry can help reduce the pressure on forests by raising the productivity of land In addition to C sequestration

Short and Long duration fallows Senna siamea (Chipata, Zambia) Single species fallows of Crotalaria and sesbania (Mutumbu, w.Kenya)

Improved fallows can contribute to increased grain yield Data: Msekera, Zambia P. Mafongoya

Biological Nitrogen fixation (kg ha -1 ) by coppicing fallow species across sites in eastern Zambia.

Improved fallows decrease soil erosion losses Tephrosia Minimum tillage Tephrosia Conventional tillage Crotalaria Minimum tillage Crotalaria Conventional tillage Continuous maize Minimum tillage Continuous maize conventional tillage Soil loss (kg ha -1 )

Infiltration rates are higher under fallows (Msekera, eastern Zambia) Source; Nyamadzowo et al 2002

There are significant mitigation potentials through forestry sinks Source: IPCC LULUCF Report

C sequestration in AF and CF Primary Forest Managed forest Tree-based systems Crops, Pastures, Grasslands Vegetation Carbon (Mg ha -1 ) From ASB Climate Change Working Group,Palm et al.

Costs of enhancing sinks using CF and AF

Back of the envelope calculation IPCC LULUCF report suggested that within 10 years: 10% of land could be under improved pasture management 20 % of available land could be under improved agroforestry By 2040, 40% of the available land could be under improved agroforestry

Multistory systems with tree crops Examples: Pine, coffee, banana system, Indonesia Peach Palm, Peru Jungle rubber system, Indonesia Cacao systems, Cameroon Agroforest Production Systems

C accumulation in a model woodlot system in W. Kenya

Scenarios of C sequestration Permanent agroforestry (IPCC) Community forestry (ENCOFOR) Time (years) Land area (M ha) conversion of area (%) Rate of C gain (tC ha -1 y -1 ) C (Mt y -1 ) Rate of C gain (tC ha -1 y -1 ) Carbon (Mt y -1 ) Agroforestry

Costs over two rotations Plantation establishment – $780 Operational costs – $440 C monitoring – $190 C documentation – $60 Total costs – $1470 per ha Equivalent of $10.04 per tCO 2 e

Applying the concept of additionality, C finance only has to overcome the financial barrier in years 1-3 Rotation agroforestry $4.36 per tCO 2 e Permanent agroforestry $1.77 per tCO 2 e IRR = 22% w/o C finance

Recommendations Need to make C finance work for multiple benefits including poverty reduction. Need to make C finance work in countries that do not necessarily have high deforestation emissions levels Need for demonstration projects that generate real benefits in rural communities

Some first steps to accomplish this Overcome the technical constraints of measurement and monitoring Address institutional constraints in developing countries (CDM and JI are bureaucratic) Address the thorny issue of permanence within the context of sustainable development Establish standards of meeting the sustainable development goals We need project development tools for partners in these countries