Life Expectancy-1930

Life Expectancy-1960

Life Expectancy-1990

Factors Affecting Human Population Size

Current Status World Population Size: 6.8 billion World Growth Rate: 1.4%, ~84 million/year U.S. Population Size: million 6.1 billion people are breeding exponentially. The process of fulfilling their needs and wants is stripping Earth of its biotic capacity to produce life.

Birth & Death Rates Birth and death rates are coming down, but death rates have fallen more sharply than birth rates. Hence more birth than death occur. *

Population Growth World’s population will double in 52 years

Population projections by regions (1999 – 2025) Over 95% of this increase will take place in “Developing Countries”

Total fertility rates in 2000

Total fertility rates for the US

Infant Mortality Rates

3. Human Carrying Capacity Can the world/biosphere provide an adequate standard for the increasing population or are we at the limit?

The Limits to Growth (1972) predicted economic & environmental collapse Computer Models

U.S.: 278 million people fertility near replacement rate; continued population increase because of immigration.

India: 1 billion =1/5 of world’s population 1952 first national family planning program; program disappointing; fertility still 3.5.

China: 1.3 billion people =1/5 of world’s population since 1970 efforts to better feed people & control population growth; strict population control measures prevent couples from having more than one child; although considered coercive, the policy is significantly slowing population growth.

How to Reduce Population Growth? improve access to family planning & reproductive health care; improve heath care for infants, children, & pregnant women; improve equality between men & women; increase access to education, especially for girls; increase the involvement of men in child rearing & family planning; reduce poverty; reduce & eliminate unsustainable patterns of production & consumption.

Current Situation Each year nearly 11 million children die before the age of five,30,000 every day,largely from preventable causes. 50% of these deaths occur in only six countries; 90% of these deaths occur in 42 of 192 countries. 41% of these deaths occur in Africa, which has only 10 % of the world’s under-five population. 33% of all child deaths occur in the first month of life.

~11 Million Children Die/year (70% From 5 Major Causes) Malnutrition 56% Birth Trauma Neonatal Deaths Tetanus Fever Low Birth Weight

Causes of Death in the World Age<5 yrs % of Deaths

Main Causes of Death Disease or ConditionProportion of Under- five Deaths Neonatal Illnesses33% Diarrhea22% Pneumonia21% Malaria9% AIDS3% Measles1% Other9% Malnutrition is an underlying cause of 53% of all child deaths Source: The Lancet. Vol.361, June 28, 2003

Deaths per 1,000 Live Births Year Under-Five Mortality Rate: Regional and Global Averages Source: UNICEF Times Series Estimates, 2000

Neonatal Mortality Relative to Infant Mortality Deaths per 1,000 Live Births Country Source: Demographic Health Surveys

Tuberculosis prevention, control & treatment Malaria prevention, control & treatment Anti-microbial resistance Local capacity for surveillance and response Infectious Diseases

Gaps in Child Survival Gaps in child mortality are increasing between rich and poor countries. Mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa average 175 per 1,000, compared to 6 per 1000 in industrialized countries. Within countries, gaps in mortality rates between rich and poor children are also increasing.

Urban/Rural Under-five Mortality Rates by Country Deaths per 1,000 Live Births Country Source: Demographic Health Surveys

We Know What Works Six million children each year could be saved with basic, cost-effective measures such as: vaccines, antibiotics, insecticide-treated bed nets, breastfeeding, micronutrients, and health and nutrition education. We know what it takes to improve child health but increased resources are needed to ensure all children have access to these proven measures.

Child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 1997

Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child mortality rates

DALYs Disability Adjusted Life –Years QALY= Quality Adjusted Life-Years Both are attempts to express burden of disease in a single number

Most significant public health achievements in the U.S. in the 20 th Century Vaccination Motor-vehicle safety Safer workplaces Control of infectious diseases Decline in deaths from coronary heart disease and stroke Healthier mothers and babies Recognition of tobacco as the major killer and cause of disease

20 th Century Environmental Health Events 1906 Pure Food and Drug Act 1918 Flu Epidemic 1948 Donora PA. Air Pollution Episode 1952 London England Air Poll. Episode 1958 Mercury Poisoning Minamata Bay 1962 Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring” 1970 Earth Day-Sen. Gaylord Nelson

20 th Century Environmental Health Events Cont U.S. Clean Air Act, EPA, OSHA Created 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Consumer Product Safety Act 1974 Superfund Act 1975 Safe Drinking Water Act 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act –Toxic Substances Control Act 1979 Three Mile Island 1984 Bhopal India 1986 Chernobyl