GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Safety and Effectiveness of operations at Sea F.J.M. Davidson 1, A. Allen 2, G. B. Brassington 3, O. Breivik 4, P. Daniel 5, B. Stone 6, M. Kamachi 7, S. Sato 8, B. King 9, Fabien Lefevre 10, Marion Sutton 10 »1 DFO, St. John's, Canada »2 USCG, Groton, USA »3 CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia »4 Met No, Bergen, Norway »5 Meteo France, Toulouse, France »6 CCG, St. John's, Canada »7 MRI, Tokyo, Japan »8 JCG, Tokyo, Japan »9 APASA, Surfers Paradise, Australia 10 CLS, Ramonville-St.Agne, France

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Outline Need Search and Rescue Applications Other safety applications Efficiency applications Concluding remarks

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Drifter Deployment GODAE ocean forecasting adds Value added information for the Search and Rescue Coordinator GPS ARGOS

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Drift Prediction occurrence: Japanese Coast Guard Nakhodka Tanker Oil spill 1997 motivated need for better drift prediction, research and development

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Canadian Example Drifter Release Where you are. Where Coast Guard is looking for you … In the wrong place. Old New

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Australia: Blue Link Eastern Australian Current: Validation exercise Drifter’s overlayed on computed circulation

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Comparison to 5 day drift Drifter Validation 6 buoys released in Eastern Australian Current Drogued at 15m Example from APASA*/CSIRO *Australian engineering group building support/decisions tools for oil drift, chemical spills and search and recue drift 10 km NCOM Blue-Link Error (km)

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Impact of 4 D Var Assimilation System Lat. Initial position of Buoy Buoy (84631) Buoy (25141) Jason-1 geost. current Assim: COMPASS-K Assim: MOVE Long. Coast Guard uses Geostrophic currents + COMPASS-K (1/4o) currents MOVE system use for drift is starting

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Impact of 4 D Var Assimilation System Improvements from assimilation visible 5 day forecast error under 25 km 30km radius search zone = 2000 sq km’s Jason-1 geost. current Assim: COMPASS-K Assim: MOVE Distance(km) Distance from obs. buoy Lead time (hr)

Canadian Coast Guard 5 search and rescue centers Environmental data is duplicated in all 6 centers Search and Rescue Coordinator can run drift prediction locally and create search plan within 5 minutes. Min-Max method used Transition to Monte Carlo method makes better use of current forecasts Environment Canada provides winds DFO provides surface currents Canadian Coast Guard Search and Rescue Operations

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Search and Rescue structure in Japan Japanese Coast Guard –11 regions –Central Tokyo data server and drift prediction –Remote operations from regions –Data and Forecast system thus centralised Both Japan Meteorological Agency and Coast Guard run drift predictions –<3 days  JCG –>3 days  JMA Monte Carlo method used for drift Coast Guard Modifies ocean current field based on observations

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France US SAR OPS US Coast Guard uses central environmental data base server Forecast products retrieved by 45 search and rescue centers on request. Select time and location for data to download. SAROPS: uses Monte Carlo method. Location likelihood updated based on search

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France US SAR OPS SAROPS: Particle distribution and surface currents from NOAA North Atlantic HYCOM model RTOFS.

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France The Norwegian SAR system Monte Carlo based model formulation similar to the USCG system Forcing from high-resolution (1.5-4km) ocean model current fields and 12km resolution wind fields Recently upgraded to include coastline contours for more exact stranding of particles New object categories recently added from field work off the Norwegian coast in collaboration with the Norwegian Coast Guard, IFREMER (France) and USCG

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Norwegian: Drift service interface Oil spill forecast order form Menu for drift services and visualization WMS client for simple visualization

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France The impact of high-resolution current fields (1) Open-ocean conditions: 1.5km resolution vs 4km resolution (currently the operational model). In open-ocean conditions the two models are virtually identical

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France The impact of high-resolution current fields (2) Near-shore trajectories: 1.5km 4km

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1.5km 4km

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1.5km 4km

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1.5km 4km

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1.5km 4km

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1.5km 4km The trajectories are highly influenced by the strong coastal current present in the high-resolution current field New Development Stranding particles on a high-resolution coastline contour (GSHHS)

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Ocean routing Shipping company needs –Security: Crew+ Equipement –Quickest route * –Stick to time of arrival Constraints: Panama, Suez –Reduce of fuel consumption Solution: Use GODAE ocean forecast to take advantage of the current Guadeloupe

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Route recommendation – example 2 Leg2 : 21°5 N, 85°50W to 16°N, 78°20W Passage planning Best_current Distance (nautical miles) Travel time (hrs) Mean Speed (knots) Mean Current effect (knots) Example of a route recommendation to BROSTROM in the Gulf of Mexico for the route Houston to Pozos

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Route recommendation – example 1 BROSTROM: Trinidad to Houston

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Route recommendation – example 1 BROSTROM: Trinidad to Houston GPS speed Rel. speed

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Need for Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean-Ice Forecasting system Prévision Nuage bas (48 heures) Coast Guard Requires advanced knowledge of Ice Free route Manages safety along “ice free” route Asks ships to follow official route Coupled Atmospheric Ocean Ice Forecast System required: EC-DFO collaboration Plan to extend this system for North West Atlantic

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Other requirements for GODAE products Ship routing tools through Ice zones Ice and current forecast for operational fisheries management

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Ocean currents for iceberg forecasting Mercator ocean currents used as input to the Canadian Ice Service iceberg forecast model produced results improves on operational model

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Concluding Remarks GODAE ocean forecast products: Allready in use in different applications –Search and rescue –Marine routing: efficiency and safety through strong currents and ice covered waters When it comes to ship routing and searching…. You can do better by using ocean forecast products instead of climatology Outreach/Interaction needed

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Concluding Remarks GODAE products have been evaluated on individual cases Long hindcasts/reanalysis runs need to be used Set standard benchmark data base for surface drifters for inter-comparison (include coast guard buoys) Develop model forecast vs observed drift error statistics to adjust future application of forecast systems

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Rescueing is a big effort we need ocean knowledge to make it efficient