Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: Betty Kibaara, Joshua Ariga, Thomas Jayne and John Olwande Conference on: Agricultural Productivity, Competitiveness and Rural Poverty in Kenya: Laying the Foundation for Vision September, 2008

Presentation Outline  Background  Objectives of the Study  Data and methods  Trends in land ownership and cultivated land  Contribution of crop income  Trends in productivity  Factors contributing to productivity growth, decline or stagnation  Policy implications

Background Agricultural productivity levels in SSA below that of other regions in the World Since 2000, productivity growth in SSA impressive In the past, agricultural production largely a function of acreage, further growth will have to be driven by productivity growth Local and Regional strategies Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture (SRA) Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) Kenya Vision 2030

Objectives To examine trends in the Kenyan agricultural productivity Cereal (maize) Industrial crops( tea, coffee and sugarcane) Horticultural crops ( Irish potatoes and cabbages) Dairy Explore factors driving or hindering productivity growth Draw implications for policy and suggest actions needed for sustainable productivity growth

Contribution (%) of Crop Income to the overall Annual Household Income Zone Coastal Lowlands Eastern Lowlands Western Lowlands Western Transitional High Potential Maize Zone Western Highlands Central Highlands Marginal Rain Shadow Overall Sample

Trends in Owned and Cultivated Land 6% decline in mean per household owned land (from a 6.1 in 1997 acres to 5.8 acres in 2007) Cultivated land declined slightly from 3.5 acres in 1997 to 3.4 acres per household in 2007 Commodity Mean Cultivated acres/HH that produced the commodity Maize Tea Sugarcane Coffee Cabbages Potatoes

Mean Maize Productivity Zone kg - bags/acre Coastal Lowlands Eastern Lowlands Western Lowlands Western Transitional High Potential Maize Zone Western Highlands Central Highlands Marginal Rain Shadow Overall Sample % growth

Maize Productivity- Pure stand Vs Intercrop YearOverallPure standIntercrop (90 –kg bags/acre) % of Total maize area is intercropped

Drivers of Maize Productivity Growth Fertilizer adoption (% of hhs) Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) Increased use of organic fertilizer % of hhs adopting High yielding maize varieties % of hhs using fertilizer plus hybrid maize seed Distance to fertilizer seller Distance to seller of hybrid maizeN/A Number of maize seed varieties planted Western Transitional1727 High Potential Maize Zone2332 Western Highlands918

Tea Productivity (Kgs of green leaf per acre/year) ZoneDistrict High Potential Maize ZoneBomet4,0173,7653,8783,704 Western HighlandsKisii2,1423,1543,3584,278 Vihiga8971,6242,6424,549 Central HighlandsMeru4,3644,4445,5105,147 Murang’a4,7224,4614,2154,674 Nyeri4,6534,2954,5144,706 Overall Kg/acre3,9313,8694,2064,507 Overall kg/tea bush % growth

Drivers of Tea Productivity Growth Increasing fertilizer adoption (% of hhs) 84% to 98% Increasing fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) Western highlands (Vihiga & Kisii)

Coffee Productivity (Cherries in kg/acre ) Zone Eastern Lowlands Western Lowlands Western Transitional High Potential Maize Zone Western Highlands9861,2851, Central Highlands1,9332,6161,8101,639 Overall Sample1,4591,8261,5771,285 30% decline since 2000

Factors affecting Coffee productivity Fertilizer adoption (% hhs) Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) No. of hhs producing coffee Management problems Declining international prices

Sugarcane Productivity (tonnes/acre) ZoneDistrict Western LowlandsKisumu Western TransitionalBungoma Kakamega Overall Sample % productivity decline since 2000

Factors contributing to decline in Sugarcane productivity Fertilizer adoption (% hhs) Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) No. hhs producing s/cane Poor cane varieties Low sucrose level & high fibre content Take long to mature

Cabbage Productivity (Kg/acre) ZoneYear Mean productivity (kg/acre) % of hhs using fertilizer No. of hhs producing cabbages Area under production (acres/hh) High Potential Maize Zone19978, , , , Central Highlands19976, , , , Overall Sample19977, , , , % Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating

Irish Potato Productivity (Kg/acre) ZoneYear Mean productivity (kg/acre) % of hhs using fertilizer No. of hhs producing potatoes Area under production (acres/hh) High Potential Maize Zone19972, , , , Central Highlands19972, , , , Overall Sample19972, , , , % Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating trends

Annual Milk productivity (liters/cow/year) Zone Coastal Lowlands Eastern Lowlands Western Lowlands Western Transitional ,022 High Potential Maize Zone1, ,3131,692 Western Highlands9021,0051, Central Highlands1,8561,9692,2431,991 Marginal Rain Shadow1, ,4881,434 Overall Sample1,1641,0791,2981,371 18% productivity growth

Drivers of Milk Productivity Growth Partial Factors Households growing fodder (%) Proportion of cultivated land allocated to fodder (%)36712 HHs with improved cows (%) Nominal prices of milk in Ksh/lt Constant prices of milk (GDP deflator)

Other cross cutting services Distance to Motorable roads Distances to Tarmac roads Distance to crops extension service (private and public) Distance to veterinary service % received agricultural credit

Sources of Agricultural Credit Sources of Agricultural credit Commodity Based credit providers (KTDA, sugar company etc) Informal money lenders Traders/Input stockists Cooperatives/SACCOs Agricultural Finance Corporation MFI/NGO Commercial banks

Benchmarking Kenya’s Agricultural Productivity CommodityTegemeo PanelBenchmarking countries ( FAO) Maize (bags/acre) 9 SA- 13 bags/acre Argentina-31 bags/acre Tea (kg/acre) 4,507 Malawi – 3,523 India – 2,774 Uganda- 2,601 Coffee ( processed) (kg/acre) 214 Brazil- 345 Colombia – 436 Uganda Sugarcane (tonnes/acre) 28 – 25 Egypt – 40 Malawi – 43 Sudan - 42 Dairy (litres/cow per year) 1,371 Argentina – 4,773 South Africa – 3,093 Malawi- 461 Uganda 331

Summary of the Productivity Trends Increased Productivity Maize Tea Dairy Declined Productivity Coffee Sugarcane Fluctuating Productivity Horticulture (cabbages Irish potatoes)

Key drivers of productivity growth Infrastructure improvements Increased fertilizer use Technology generation and adoption Improved seed varieties Uptake of improved dairy cows Role of markets

Policy Implications Sustainability of high fertilizer adoption against rising global fertilizer prices requires innovative financing through Private Public Partnership. Transaction costs of inputs could be reduced through investment in ‘public goods’ such as physical infrastructure. Emerging role of input dealers in input delivery system. Up scaling the agro dealer training program could further improve access to inputs Given the declining land sizes within the smallholder farming sectors of in Kenya, land allocation and land settlement will need to be on the policy agenda. Introduction of early maturity and high yielding sugarcane varieties would increase efficiency and raise rural household incomes Irish potatoes are a good substitute and especially with the current rise in maize prices. However, there is no certified potato seed growers in the country. Provision of clean seed could be jointly undertaken by the private sector, development and the government