Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops 2010 Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Randy A. Hautea, Global Coordinator, ISAAA and Director, ISAAA SEAsiaCenter Public Forum on Science Communication, April 6, 2011, Biopolis, Singapore

Mission Help increase crop productivity and income generation, and bring about a safer environment and more sustainable agricultural development. Major Programs Facilitate sharing of information and experiences on crop biotechnology through a global network; Transfer and deliver appropriate biotechnology applications to developing countries About Us International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications Knowledge Experiences Technologies Capacities SHARING… Resources Information

Double food production on same/less land area, water, nutrients, energy by 2050 Increasing world population 6.5B to 8B by 2025 and 9.2B by 2050 Decreasing cultivable land per capita 0.45 ha. in 1966 to 0.15 ha. in 2050 Lower growth in grain yields Less than 1.0 % per annum in 1990s Malnutrition/Poverty ~ 1billion people malnourished or hungry >1 billion afflicted by poverty Climate change Limited water availability New pests and diseases The Global Challenge Producing More with Less in A Sustainable Way

Source: Compiled by Clive James, 2011 Rice Soybea n Maize Cotton High1, Prices of Commodities ($/ton) and Oil ($/barrel), January 2006 to December 2010

Can biotech crops produce more affordable food, feed and fiber, and are they safe? Can biotech crops produce more affordable food, feed and fiber, and are they safe? Can biotech crops contribute to sustainability? Can biotech crops contribute to sustainability? Can biotech crops help with climate change mitigation and adaptation? Can biotech crops help with climate change mitigation and adaptation? Can biotech crops contribute to food security and to the alleviation of poverty and hunger? Can biotech crops contribute to food security and to the alleviation of poverty and hunger? Global Society’s Questions re: GM/Biotech Crops Source: Clive James, 2011

ADOPTION OF OF BIOTECH CROPS BIOTECH CROPS

Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996/2010 Biotech Crops Surge Over 1 Billion Cumulative Hectares in 2010 Source: Clive James, M Acres 500 Million Hectares 1 Billion Hectares = USA land area 10 years 5 years

Increase over countries which have adopted biotech crops In 2010, global area of biotech crops was 148 million hectares, representing an increase of 10% over 2009, equivalent to 14 million hectares. Source: Clive James, Biotech Mega Countries 50,000 hectares or more USA Brazil* Argentina* India* Canada China* Paraguay* Pakistan* South Africa* Uruguay* Bolivia* Australia Philippines* Myanmar* Burkina Faso* Spain Mexico* Less than 50,000 hectares Colombia* Chile* Honduras* Portugal Czech Republic Poland Egypt* Slovakia * Developing countries Costa Rica* Romania Sweden Germany Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2010: by Country 10%

Source: Clive James, % Soybean 64% Cotton 29% Maize 23% Canola Conventional Biotech Million acres Global Adoption Rates (%) for Principal Biotech Crops (Million Hectares, Million Acres), 2010

Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2010: By Trait (Million Hectares, Million Acres) Source: Clive James, 2010

1 billionth hectare planted in 2010 – about same area as USA or China Increase from 25 to 29 countries: Pakistan, Myanmar and Sweden, and Germany resumed planting Strong 10% growth = 14 M ha = 2 nd largest gain ever 87-fold increase from 1996 to fastest adopted crop technology Top ten countries each >1 M ha, 8 are developing 15.4 M biotech farmers, up 1.4 M – 90% or 14.4 million were small and resource-poor farmers Stacked traits – 11 countries, 32 M ha (22%) SUMMARY – 2010 HIGHLIGHTS Source: Clive James, 2011

IMPACT OF GM/BIOTECH CROPS

IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Farm income gains $65 B from 1996 to % due to cost reduction 56% due to a production gain of 229 M tons - conservative estimate (spill-over from biotech to conventional) PROTECTS BIODIVERSITY – Double crop production on same area of 1.5 B hectares of crop land – Save forests/land/biodiversity – 229 M tons would have required additional 75 M ha of land to till – Enhanced farm ecology GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011 Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT – Reduce need for external inputs – Savings of 393 M kg pesticides from 1996/2009 = 9% saved – Saved 18 B kg CO 2 in 2009 – contribution to climate change, removing 8 M cars off the road – Conservation of soil & water through biotech + no low till SOCIAL BENEFITS – Contribution to poverty alleviation of 14.4 M small resource-poor farmers in 2010 & welfare benefits emerging. GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011 Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011

Safety of Biotech/GM Crops

THE FUTURE , , THE REMANING FIVE YEARS OF THE SECOND DECADE OF COMMERCIALIZATION 2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year 2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year

Key Requirements for Success POLITICAL WILL POLITICAL WILL ACCESS TO NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS ACCESS TO NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS APPROPRIATE AND EFFICIENT REGULATION IN DEV. COUNTRIES APPROPRIATE AND EFFICIENT REGULATION IN DEV. COUNTRIES The Future – Source: Clive James, 2011

Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015 Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015 Drought tolerance – principal trait–maize in US 2012 Drought tolerance – principal trait – maize in US 2012 Biotech rice – major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries Biotech rice – major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries Quality traits –Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others Quality traits – Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others More biotech crops developed by countries from the South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation More biotech crops developed by countries from the South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding”– MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response to more severe and rapid changes in climate change Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding” – MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response to more severe and rapid changes in climate change Asia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decade Asia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decade The Future – A WAVE OF The Future – A WAVE OF NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS Source: Clive James, 2011

Current Numbers and Estimations of Future Numbers of GM Crops Worldwide Source: Stein and Cerezo, 2010

Implementation of APPR0PRIATE REGULATION will spur adoption of biotech crops in AFRICA Source:Compiled by Clive James, ( 3 countries ) South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt 2015 ( up to 10 countries ) South Africa, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Mali, Togo, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Malawi

Projected Biotech Crop Countries in Asia ( ) 2010 India, China, Pakistan, Australia, Philippines and Myanmar 2015 India, China, Pakistan, Australia, Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh

Source: Clive James, 2011 ISAAA Prediction for 2 nd Decade, # of Biotech Countries 2229~ 40 # of Farmers Planting Biotech Crops 10 Million15.4 Million~ 20 Million Global Biotech Area m. hectares 100 Million Hectares 148 Million Hectares ~200 Million Hectares