Matthew J West On behalf of Space Pole STAC EUMETNET, Apr, 2013 Space Weather Services at Space Pole

Royal Observatory of Belgium Royal Meteorological Institute Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy Space Pole has three research institutes and collaborates with other Belgian and European institutes to provide space weather products Space Pole

Space Pole Space Weather Tools & Products Space Pole have several groups researching, reporting and developing tools to study the Sun and space weather. I will focus on the tools we have that may be of interest to you. These Include: PROBA2 Science Center – Operates the PROBA2 solar satellite. STAFF – Solar Timelines viewer (for AFFECTS). AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring communications Through Space - European FP7 project Humain – Radio-astronomy station CME Speed Calculator International Sunspot Number – Record and Maintain USET – Ground based Solar Telescope Regional SDO Data Archive SoFAST - Automated Flare Detection Cactus – CME Tracking System Solar Demon – Dimming and EUV wave Monitor (for AFFECTS). CME arrival alert (for AFFECTS). Space Weather Forecasting Interactive Flare Tool Interactive Solar map Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre COMESEP – Forecasting Storms K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Solar Weather Browser jhelioviewer SAA Coordination Centre

PROBA2 Microsatellite in sun-synchronous orbit Launched on November 2, km altitude ☀ Period: ≈100 min Commanding and data processing at P2SC (ROB, Brussels).

Instruments – LYRA - SWAP SWAP LYRA LYRA (Lyman Alpha Radiometer) – X and UV photometer (4 passbands) Multi-wavelength analysis of flares Short time-scale events, especially quasi-period pulsations Variability of long term solar spectral irradiance SWAP (Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System Detector and Image Processing)– An EUV imager Observes the Suns lower atmosphere (≈1 MK)

SWAP – showing the Suns Variability Solar Activity as observed by SWAP and LYRA 13 th Jun 2012, at 11:29 UT, an M1.2 flare occurred in AR11504 Source Region seen by SWAP Power recorded by LYRA

Tools Used With PROBA2 (& Future Missions)

Interactive Flare Tool PROBA2 data is used in our Interactive Flare Tool. A product produced to help forecasters locating the origin on Flares or other activity. The user clicks on the light curve and the source and details are highlighted.

Interactive Solar Map /Solarmap.html Provides flaring stats and probabilities per AR

SoFAST: Automated Flare Detection Tool -Uses SWAP EUV imager (with a view to be used with future missions). -It will monitor, record and warn of EUV flares detected. ( Typical one day output

AFFECTS

No.CountryInstitutionScientific Contact 1GermanyGeorg-August-University Göttingen Dr. Volker Bothmer, project coordinator 2BelgiumRoyal Observatory of Belgium Dr. Ronald Van der Linden, Dr. Cis Verbeeck 3UkraineSpace Research InstituteDr. Aleksei Parnowski 4GermanyFraunhofer IPMDr. Raimund Brunner 5NorwayUniversity of TromsøProf. Chris Hall 6GermanyGerman Aeropace Center Dr. Norbert Jakowski, Dr. Jens Berdermann 7GermanyAstrium GmbHWilfried Pfeffer 8U.S.A.Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAADr. Rodney Viereck 9GermanyPlanetarium HamburgThomas W. Kraupe A space research project under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union. AFFECTS will provide early space weather warnings to protect communication systems. The following institutions are involved in AFFECTS:

STAFF - Solar Timelines viewer

Solar Demon - Dimming & EUV wave Monitor for SDO-AIA What? - Solar Demon is a tool to automatically detect and characterize EUV waves and dimmings Why? - Aid space weather applications by providing extra information on a front side CME, and gain better understanding of underlying physical mechanisms. How? - Automatically analyzing SDO/AIA 211Å quick-look images When? - Solar Demon will run in near real-time at the fall of 2013 ( October 23, Dimming mask created from base difference image

Solar Demon - example events Left: off-disc event detected on October 28, Center: event detected on March 9, Right: small event detected on October 23, 2012 Complex dimming event. 07/03/12. Solar Demon interface EUV Wave Characteristics. 09/03/12

Machine readable CME arrival alert CME heading towards Earth: containing XML file is sent Currently in test phase Provides input for AFFECTS Early Warning Message for GNSS users ( Contains: Measured: CME departure time, principle angle, coronagraph Estimated: CME arrival time, probability of arrival at Earth, max K value

Solar & Space Weather Tools

CACTus - Computer Aided CME Tracking CME Parameters Applicable to different coronagraphs Difference movies Halo Alert service Products

CACTus – CME catalogs SOHO-LASCO: since 04/1997 STEREO/COR2 A and B: since 03/2007 Real-time: based on LASCO Quick-look; – STEREO data has a latency of 3 days.

CME Speed Calculator

Solar Weather Browser Software output Numerical information Observations Past – near real time Movies Zoom Combining Easy browsing

jhelioviewer We develop the jhelioviewer program. – Visualization program for Solar image data. Creates compressed solar images, allowing them to be quickly and easily viewed. Used to create movies and combine (overlay solar images).

Instruments and Data We Host at Space Pole

Data is available via website: Data will be available via the SODA (SOTERIA VSO) Info: USET Solar Telescope Uccle Solar Equatorial Table (USET) has three telescopes to look at the solar surface and lower atmosphere: White-light H-alpha Ca II K-images

USET in collaboration with other stations world wide helps produce: Provisional SSN. Definitive SSN. Daily sunspot index. SSN predictions. The Sunspot Number provides one of the longest running data series and is used for looking at long-term trends in solar activity. The International Sunspot Number (ISSN)

International Sunspot Number Info: Medium-term forecast of smoothed ISN

Humain Radioastronomy Station Project started in 2008, in the framework of the Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence. Provides near real-time monitoring of solar activity using Two kinds of instruments: Radiospectrographs: observation of radio bursts linked to flares and CMEs Radiometers: Single frequency flux monitoring for flares and daily irradiance variation (e.g.: F10.7cm) Provides radio data for the SIDC forecasts. Website: Info: Type II burst

SDO data archive at ROB Download images from ROB: use same routines but specify site=‘rob’ IDL> list=vso_search('1-aug :00','1-aug :02', inst='hmi’, site=‘rob’) IDL> a=vso_get(list[6:7]) latest movies: Info:

Space Weather Forecasting & Nowcasting

31 K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast K index value Quality Flag Registration Service Selection Alert (web based) Service Output: K index value - data files (ASCII), plots Quality Flag (QF) – data acquisition and processing quality assessment Alerts – web (verbose & colour code), Service Type: Nowcast: update – every 60 min Nowcast: latency less than 3 min

COMESEP Project ROB is in charge of WP 6: SPACE WEATHER ALERT SYSTEM Establish an operational European Space Weather Alert system to forecast SEP radiation storms and magnetic storms. Go beyond individual detection tools and models, by integrating their outputs into an automated start-to-end-service system. Disseminate the alerts and forecasts to the space weather vulnerable industries and other users using existing media on European level. The COMESEP Project: Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms and Solar Energetic Particle Events Input: Interchangeable Solar models. Output: Forecasts and alerts.

The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) COMESEP project (under development) To develop an open end-to- end (from Sun to Earth) space weather modelling system (“Virtual SW Modelling Centre”). Combine ("couple") various space weather models in an integrated tool,

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) coordination Centre We are part of the ESA SSA Program Host expert service centers for ESA Solar Physics input from ROB Radiation input from BIRA We host the SSA Coordination Centre

Flares: o Large and sudden release of energy in the solar atmosphere o Several classes of flares: C, M and X-flares o Estimate probability: 50% C, >50% M, >50% X-flares K-index: o Overall geomagnetic activity o Forecast over 3 days in intervals of 3 hours o Ranges from 0 to 9 o Daily A-index value is distributed to the wider communitee Proton events F10.7: o Solar radio flux at 10.7cm o Forecast over 3 days What do we forecast?

Daily Space Weather Bulletin Products format – software readableFree and Complete information

Fast & automated alerts Flare >M5 Sms* Presto Noticeable event Sms* CME >150 degrees Products *since 2011 Also for geomagnetism, all quiet, …

Monthly & weekly bulletins Provisional Sunspot Indices. Medium-term forecast of sunspot index. Table of Solar and Geomagnetic activity indices. Table of noticeable events (> M flare). Forecasts of returning major sunspot groups. Solar and Geomagnetic Activity report: – a general description of the solar and geomagnetic conditions during the month. If applicable: a “hot items” section. STCE Newsletter.

Worldwide RWC Data Products

Space Pole Space Weather Tools & Products PROBA2 Science Center – Operates the PROBA2 solar satellite. STAFF – Solar Timelines viewer (for AFFECTS). AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring communications Through Space - European FP7 project Humain – Radio-astronomy station CME Speed Calculator International Sunspot Number – Record and Maintain USET – Ground based Solar Telescope Regional SDO Data Archive SoFAST - Automated Flare Detection Cactus – CME Tracking System Solar Demon – Dimming and EUV wave Monitor (for AFFECTS). CME arrival alert (for AFFECTS). Space Weather Forecasting Interactive Flare Tool Interactive Solar map Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre COMESEP – Forecasting Storms K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Solar Weather Browser jhelioviewer SAA Coordination Centre