Henwood Consulting What’s Up ? California Electric Generation Markets Gary L. Hunt Managing Director.

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Presentation transcript:

Henwood Consulting What’s Up ? California Electric Generation Markets Gary L. Hunt Managing Director

Henwood Consulting About Henwood Consulting Henwood is a market leading energy technology and consulting firm based in Sacramento. Henwood’s power generation planning, market simulation and power plant performance optimization software are used by more than 130 of the world’s largest electric generators and utilities to manage their asset portfolio. Henwood’s newest service, TermDesk is an energy buyer-focused gas and power origination service providing on-line energy auction and procurement services to assist buyers manage price risk and supply reliability. Henwood Consulting provides strategic consulting and power market analysis services to clients worldwide focused on electric asset valuation, portfolio development, power market analysis and energy price risk management. For more information contact: Henwood Consulting 2710 Gateway Oaks Drive, Suite #300N Sacramento, CA Gary L. Hunt is Managing Director of Consulting for Henwood. He is an expert in electric power markets, industry restructuring and competitive strategy development. Gary has 25 years experience as a state public utility regulator, electric power executive and strategic consultant. Gary served as Minnesota Deputy State Public Service Director and was chief of Staff at the Illinois Commerce Commission. He was CEO of MMWEC, a wholesale power producer in New England, Assistant City Manager for Utilities in Austin, Texas, and Assistant General Manager-Operations at EBMUD. Before joining Henwood, he was Director of Electric Power at Cambridge Energy Research Associates and was a Principal in the Utility Economics Practice of Standard & Poor’s. Gary Hunt , ext # 341

Henwood Consulting Forces Reshaping the Competitive Energy Markets Consolidation Tight supply Slow growth Low share price Valuation B2B models Internet

Henwood Consulting Electric generation is still a regional market play

Henwood Consulting Before Electric Restructuring Rates set by the CPUC based upon capital invested Rates “averaged” masking true price volatility. Non-utility generators offered to build power plants at prices lower than utilities’ proposed new projects. No major generation additions since 1980’s.

Henwood Consulting After Electric Restructuring Utilities divested most generating assets Utilities as “buyers” in the marketplace. Prices not “average cost” over long periods of times Tight Supply/Demand balances Lead to price spike volatility

Henwood Consulting WSCC Electric Power Markets by the numbers 160,000 MW installed capacity 60,000 MW of PNW Hydro 130,000 MW current peak load 1.9% electric load growth 9,000 MW new power plant construction 50,000+ MW of announced new plant

Henwood Consulting WSCC Supply Curve

Henwood Consulting Cal-PX Daily On Peak Price Volatility

Henwood Consulting Spot Market Prices

Henwood Consulting Wildcards Nuclear retirements Hydropower output % of normal % of normal Continued Economic Expansion Power Plant Construction Schedules

Henwood Consulting Futures Prices of Electric Power

Henwood Consulting Competitive Power Market Evolution Rational markets will evolve over the next couple of years as new plants are brought on line. Peak hour prices will still to be volatile but the number of hours, and the magnitude will be mitigated during normal conditions. Expect new electric products to evolve to help consumers manage price risk and meet different interests of consumers (retail and wholesale)

Henwood Consulting WSCC Average Annual Expected Electricity Prices