Characteristics and Challenges of China ’ s Agricultural and Rural Statistics Zhang Shuying Director-General, Department of Rural Surveys,NBS 22 October, 2007, Beijing

1.Characteristics of agriculture and rural statistics 2.Technical measures and organizational guarantees 3.New challenges China ’ s agriculture and rural statistics facing 4.Ideas of Reform in the Future

China is a large agricultural country with billions of farmers in rural areas. The countryside stays stability, so does the country. It is our responsibility for truly understanding the actual situation of agriculture, rural areas and farmers (i.e. “ three rural issues ” ), and providing scientific policy foundation accordingly. Therefore, China's rural survey should focus on the development and changes of “ three rural issues" to establish the survey system, contents, and methodologies. 1.Characteristics of agriculture and rural statistics

1.1 System of Agricultural statistics Survey on factors of agricultural production Survey on output of agricultural products Survey on the prices of agricultural products Accounting of agricultural economy Agricultural census

(1) Survey on labor force engaged in agricultural production activities (2) Survey on agricultural land (3) Agricultural machineries and equipments (4) Agricultural water conservancy construction Survey on factors of agricultural production

The survey on labor force covers indicators such as the quantity, gender, education level, industries to reflect the input scale and demand changes of rural labors; Attach importance to the definition and flow of agricultural labor force. (2) Survey on agricultural land Indicator system: total agricultural land resource (main indicator) Data collection: annual report & census Coordination and organization: NBS & The Ministry of Land and Resources (1) Survey on labor force engaged in agricultural production activities

Focus on agricultural machinery power, and agricultural machineries & equipments to reflect the level of agricultural mechanization. Focus on the irrigation facilities, water-saving irrigation machineries, irrigation area and area benefited from water conservancy and other aspects. （ 4 ） Agricultural water conservancy construction （ 3 ） Agricultural machineries and equipments

（ 1 ） Grain: sample survey, field measurement （ 2 ） Cotton: Pilot sample survey （ 3 ） Improve the statistical scope of forestation area （ 4 ） Improve the approach of calculating output of aquatic shellfish （ 5 ） Explore survey instrument for animal husbandry （ 6 ） Improve survey program for fruits and vegetables Survey on output of agricultural products

1.1.3 Survey on the prices of agricultural products （ 1 ） Prices of agricultural products at rural fair markets （ 2 ） Producers ’ prices of agricultural products （ 3 ） Prices of agricultural products at wholesale markets

（ 1 ） Accounting of gross output value of primary industry （ 2 ） Accounting of value added of primary industry （ 3 ） Sample survey on intermediate cost of major agricultural products Accounting of agricultural economy

Since 2003, according to the industrial classification for national economic activities, the gross output value of primary industry covers the total value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and related service activities during a calendar year. Current prices as well as constant prices were adopted to calculate gross output value of primary industry historically. Since 2004, constant prices and the deflator index have been adopted to estimate the growth rate of primary industry. In the mean while, the use of current prices were stopped. （ 1 ） Accounting of gross output value of primary industry

The scope of accounting of value-added of primary industry is the same as that of the gross output value of primary industry; Production method is used to account the value added of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery. Income method or value-added ratio method is adopted to account the value added of service activities for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Frequency: quarterly and annually. （ 2 ） Accounting of value added of primary industry

Launched in 2000, to reflect the impact of changes of intermediate cost on agricultural production and farmers ’ incomes. Survey scope: all agricultural production units, including rural households and other units. Sample size: 9,000 agricultural production units. Survey contents: major types of products in the major producing areas Agricultural census （ 3 ） Sample survey on intermediate cost of major agricultural products

As China is at the initial stage of socialism, the prominent characteristics of the urban-rural economic structure is dualistic economy. To make administrative measures and socio-economic development policies, the rural areas should be noted as relatively independent unit. Therefore, the status of rural socio- economic development should be monitored and surveyed independently. 1.2 Rural statistics

Related surveys: (1) Survey on investment of fixed assets in rural areas (2) Statistics of regional basic information (3) Rural poverty monitoring survey (4) Monitoring on ‘ grain-for-green ’

1.3 Rural household survey  An integrated socio-economic survey  Rural households as respondents  Sample survey  To obtain the information of rural socio-economic development

1.3.1 Survey contents have been enriched continuously From income sources, consumption pattern to more diverse dimensions: production and living facilities, social security, etc Gradually standardizing data collection methods Combination of diary-keeping and one-time survey.

To sum up, China's agriculture and rural statistical surveys:  Indicator system: reflecting the 3D characteristics of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.  Survey methodology: combination of sample survey and administrative report.

 Sample size to satisfy estimation at national and provincial levels  Unified survey methodology and data collection tools  Data verification, assessment and management  Effective organizational guarantee system 2. Technical measures and organizational guarantees

Following surveys are representative at both national and provincial levels: survey on output of major agricultural products, survey on prices of agricultural products, rural household survey The nationwide agricultural and rural sample survey collected a total of 857 counties, 200,000 rural households, carried out more than 10 theme of the survey. 2.1 Sample size to satisfy estimation at national and provincial levels

Sample size of national surveys: Survey themeSample size Rural household survey7200 Villages, households Grain output 15,500 villages, 130,000 plots, more than 100 million small samples Sown area of crops20,000 villages, 200,000 farmers Pilot survey of cotton 8 main producing provinces, 292 counties, 870 villages, 7000 plots Rural investment survey7800 Village, households Agricultural intermediate cost survey 2300 Village, 8,000 farmers and 1,500 non-agricultural production units Prices of agricultural products 2300 Village, 23,000 Households and 1,500 non- agricultural production units Prices of agricultural products at rural fair markets 200 survey counties, 200 rural market fairs Prices of agricultural products at wholesale markets 30 provinces, 100 markets Poverty monitoring survey592 counties, 50,000 households

(1) survey methods  PPS and MPPS  Sample rotation (in 1990, 1995, 2000 and ) 2.2 Unified the survey methodology and data collection tools

(2)Data collection  Dairy keeping by rural households + one-time survey by interviewers  Unified and standardized diary book, forms, questionnaires, account indicators, time point of survey, estimation procedure, and data processing software. 2.2 Unified survey methodology and data collection tools

 ‘ Standardized procedure for elementary works of rural sample surveys ’  ‘ Data quality assessment and evaluation methods of rural sample surveys ’  Super-integration of important data Rural household survey Survey on grain output 2.3 Data verification, assessment and management

 State vertical management  Provincial and county level survey teams  more than 30,000 assistant enumerator 2.4 Effective organizational guarantee system

3.New challenges China ’ s agriculture and rural statistics facing 3.1 The government of China sets higher requirements for rural statistics 3.2 The rapid development of rural economy generates new demands for rural statistics 3.3 Global society has higher demands for rural statistics 3.4 Increasing difficulty of rural statistical work 3.5 The system of rural statistics needs improvement

Recently ， the China ’ s government made a series of " three rural issues" strategic approaches and policies, especially proposed a major historic task — to build a new socialist countryside. The building of a new socialist countryside is rich in content, which focuses on the development of rural productivity and the development of rural production relations. Therefore, it also requires that the content of China ’ s rural statistics should be continuously enriched and improved, which reflects not only rural economic development, but also rural social development. 3.1 The government of China sets higher requirements for rural statistics

China ’ s agriculture and rural economic development has entered into a new stage of development. Compared with 20 years ago, China ’ s agriculture and rural economy has undergone tremendous changes. The supply-demand situation of major agricultural products has changed from long-term shortage to general overall balance, and surplus in good years. Agriculture structure is continuously adjusted. The part of rural households ’ income from agriculture is shrinking. Rural population move more frequently. The structure of farmers ’ employment is more diversified. 3.2 The rapid development of rural economy generates new demands for rural statistics

 The fluctuation of China ’ s agricultural production has significant impact on international community. Production of agricultural products International trade Ensure food consumption Poverty alleviation  Therefore, more and more attention has been given to the development of China agriculture, which brought about more researches on the situation of China ’ s agricultural production. => Demand for more statistical information about China ’ s rural development 3.3 Global society has higher demands for rural statistics

 Increasingly diversified survey subjects  Transition from traditional agriculture to modern one  Limited educational level of rural labors directly affects the quality of rural survey  Statistical facilities at grass-root level are still weak 3.4 Increasing difficulty of rural statistical work

 Sample surveys should be designed and improved for sown area and animal husbandry.  Sample design of the output of agricultural products takes the whole province as the population, which is inadequate for decision-making at lower administrative levels.  Indicators related to modern agriculture should be further incorporated to rural statistical system.  Attentions should be given to problems such as the duplication and overlapping in the contents and the indicators of the surveys. 3.5 The system of rural statistics needs improvement

4. Ideas of Reform in the Future China's long-term goal for statistical development:  Adapting to improving the socialist market economy system.  Learning from advanced international experience to reform institution, improve mechanism, strengthen the rule of law, establish the modern statistical system which not only conforms to China's national situation but also international rules.  Effectively improve data accuracy and timeliness, and authority of official statistics.  Providing quality and efficient statistical service for the government, national and international communities.

4.1 Building of new operational platform for rural surveys 4.2 Research and establish integrated sample management system which is in combination of periodical and all-year-round sa mple rotation 4.3 Gradual establishment of sample survey system of the output of agricultural products which takes the land plots as the population 4.4 Reform of rural household survey system 4.5 Promote the research on integrated rural-urban household survey system 4.6 Developing the research on the animal husbandry sample survey Ongoing research projects of reforming agricultural and rural statistics

Through Second National Agricultural Census, further improve the system of rural survey; regulate the rural survey work and construction of a new rural survey platform; improve the statistical survey system with census and sample survey as the main body, and other methods as the supplements. 4.1 Building of new operational platform for rural surveys

The survey on output of agricultural products, rural household survey, poverty monitoring survey have faced the problem of how to rotate samples scientifically. Under existing data availability and considering practical issues such as the timing of survey units, it is required to reasonably determine the duration and size of rotation, and to soundly deal with the connecting works in the implementation process. 4.2 Research and establish integrated sample management system which is in combination of periodical and all-year-round sample rotation

First, Use remote sensing technology to improve acreage sampling method; second, do research on related estimation of output. 4.3 Gradual establishment of sample survey system of the output of agricultural products which takes the land plots as the population

(1) Simplify and improve indicator system. (2) A new round of sample rotation (3) Improve household survey system. Combination and supplement of diary-keeping and one-time interview. (4) Appropriately reduce the existing items of the account for households ’ living expenditure 4.4 Reform of rural household survey system

(1)According to the objective of the integration, broadly collect internationally adopted standards as well as those recommended by international organizations and to seek for proper standards which suit for China. (2)Improve existing urban and rural household survey design, data collection methods and sampling methods. (3)Pilot research under the framework of an integrated survey system. 4.5 Promote the research on integrated rural- urban household survey system

 Among the output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, the output value of animal husbandry accounting for 1/3.  Among cash income from household business operation of rural households, 1/3 is from animal husbandry.  Animal husbandry has become a pillar industry of agriculture and rural economy in China.  Data accuracy of animal husbandry has critical impact on national economy.  However, as the survey methodology is not scientific enough, data quality of animal husbandry is to be improved. 4.6 Developing the research on the animal husbandry sample survey