© 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Political Barometer Survey: Political Parties, Presidential Aspirants Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya Release Date: 2 nd October 2012 Synovate is now Ipsos Synovate

 Political party support  Presidential candidate preference  Public opinion on runoff elections 2 Contents

3 Methodology

Survey Methodology 4 Dates of polling 24 th – 28 th September 2012 Sample Size 2,229 respondents Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level Computer Aided Telephonic Interview (CATI) July/August survey – face to face, sample of 2,000

5 Sample Structure Statistics Province Sample Frame statistics (September 2012) % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central ,548,03813 Coast1969 1,711,5499 Eastern ,907,29315 Nairobi ,042,77010 North Eastern ,1585 Nyanza ,547,98013 Rift Valley ,795,48225 Western ,980,09010 TOTAL2, ,462,360100

6 Political Party Support

Political Parties Act Registration of political parties  According to the office of the registrar of political parties, there are 51 registered political parties in Kenya today Various political parties / presidential aspirants have since the beginning of the year staged a launch or re-launch 7 Political PartyDate of Launch / Activity URP15 th January POA12 th February RBK22 nd April UDFP2 nd May TNA20 th May New Ford Kenya24 th June Narc Kenya3 rd July (campaign secretariat) ODM5 th July (campaign secretariat) Federal Party of Kenya20 th August Narc2 nd September

8 “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” Political party support (analysis of those who mention any party) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

9 “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” (by total sample) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” Time Series Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

11 “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” (by total sample) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Presidential Candidate Preference 12

13 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Total) 33% 23% 7% 12% 9% 4% 1% 7% 2% July 2012 survey September 2012 survey Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Base: n=2000 (All respondents) Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

15 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

16 Presidential Aspirant Support vis a vis Political Party Support Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Run-off Analysis 17

The New Constitution stipulates that “a candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives more than half (over 50 per cent plus one) of all votes cast in the election” and these survey results indicate the probability of a runoff election 18

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...” Base: All Respondents (n=2,229) Proportion of those undecided is too high for the run off results below to be conclusive. The undecided respondents have a potential to change the political landscape once they decide and could swing the vote either way.

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...” – April 2012 Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) April 2012

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta”?(by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Uhuru In a run-off, Raila would; Maintain 94% of his supporters from round 1 elections In a run-off, Raila would; Maintain 94% of his supporters from round 1 elections In a run-off, Uhuru would Maintain 98% of his supporters from round 1 elections Benefit most from William Ruto’s (81%), Kalonzo Musyoka’s (63%), Martha Karua’s (53%) and Musalia Mudavadi’s (58%) supporters In a run-off, Uhuru would Maintain 98% of his supporters from round 1 elections Benefit most from William Ruto’s (81%), Kalonzo Musyoka’s (63%), Martha Karua’s (53%) and Musalia Mudavadi’s (58%) supporters April 2012 survey Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka?” (by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Kalonzo April 2012 survey Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi?” (by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Mudavadi April 2012 survey Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and William Ruto?” (by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Ruto April 2012 survey Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Conclusions  Change in landscape attributed to;  Supposed announcement that KANU would support ODM  Prof Saitoti’s demise as leader of PNU  The outcome of the by-elections in Kangema, Kajiado and Ndhiwa  Defections or “threatened” defections  Key factors to influence  Final list of candidates on ballot box  Running mates  Pre-election party alliances  Voter turn out 29

What next from Ipsos Synovate? 30

The French Elections 2012 (Round One) Sample size (n=1,000) Data collection methodology (telephonic interviewing)

The French Elections 2012 (Run-Off Elections ) Sample size (n=1,000) Data collection methodology (telephonic interviewing)

33 Ipsos Synovate will continue conducting political polling in Kenya Key focus over next 6 months are issue based polls Ipsos Global supports Ipsos Kenya in Opinion Polls Ipsos Global President in Kenya 4 th to 6 th October 2012

Questions? Comments? 34

For further information contact: Margaret Ireri Managing Director Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls Follow us on 35