When integrated models meet stakeholders and data (& vice-versa) WATER BASIN MODELS DATA STAKEHOLDERS POPULATION MODELLERS

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Objective n Describe the method followed in the global approach of : u Water basin management issues assessment u Stakeholders participation & empowerment u Models design u Calibration data gathering u Validation u Use

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Participative approach n Protracted cooperation with water council n Successive surveys & meetings: u Basin issues and representations (done, 7/00) u FIRMA presentation & reaction (done, 12/00) u Modelling tutorial (5/01) u Scenarios design (6/01) u Strategic decisions surveys (summer 2001) u Model re-engineering (end 2001) u … (Further steps of iterative process)

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S FIRMA : Orb planning European partners Cemagref Orb participants Models discussion Preliminary diagnosis Core modelling bases Defining focus / needs / models Test Orb models Regional models Propositions & viewpoints R R R R R R R Validation with scenarios Evaluation model Results comparison Results generalisation Evaluation results

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Orb : the basin issues n Objective of FIRMA in Orb : u Support water council for mediation n Issues : 1. Floods : big issue, but risky business 2. Irrigation & scarcity : not a big deal 3. Water quality :  bathing issue, fish 4. + Tourism & Agriculture BUT : Integrative objective for policy makers = local development…  Objective : keep together population & environment (W) in a touristic region

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Stakes / actors / usage system Floods Quality Quantity River restauration Agriculture Tourism Gravels Housing Energy Local actors and institutions Actions Decisions Evaluation vs stakes and W uses

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Basin survey : some results

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Cemagref background n Hydrology n Spatial analyis n Role playing games for negotiation support n Social simulation u Social networks dynamics n Stakeholders / stake representation models n Representation spaces design

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Possible models and usage choices  role playing games and models for collective management  prospective simulation of the basin, with population dynamics  negotiation models for flooded area TRY : Design a representation of the evolution of the Orb basin, unders various scenarios (weather, economy, migrations, water strategies), with outputs as water issues, economy & demography. Have this evaluated and modified by actors. Start actual process… TRY : Design a representation of the evolution of the Orb basin, unders various scenarios (weather, economy, migrations, water strategies), with outputs as water issues, economy & demography. Have this evaluated and modified by actors. Start actual process…

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Model’s structure (extended Thursday WP3)  Water environment + population (+ economy)  Time horizon : + 15 years (back  40 years)  Time step : ~ season (cf tourism)  Main processes : Migrations (housing & tourism) Migrations (housing & tourism) Land use evolution Land use evolution Water use changes (demand & wastes) Water use changes (demand & wastes) Tourism dynamics Tourism dynamics !!! A common model but different possible approaches of model use and degrees of realism of representations

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Model participative design Objective : design models structure & content with actors, to facilitate appropriation  ask for :  model focus  known environmental and social dynamics  main inputs and leverages  interesting descriptors  scenarios  past observed processes  validation of what’s done and results  Requires preliminary education ???

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Models, participation & surveys n Models for what ? What’s in (which agents, interactions and organisations) ?  Model design u Participatory n Model calibration u Participatory (role playing) u Surveys n Model validation u Participatory n Model use u Participatory

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Modelling strategy 2 incremental steps (decreasing abstraction) : 2 incremental steps (decreasing abstraction) : 1. CA model fitting population data & Water Population clusters dynamics Population clusters dynamics Group dynamics & water demands Group dynamics & water demands Attractivity = f (water, pop, economy) Attractivity = f (water, pop, economy) Cf. litterature review (Margaret)Cf. litterature review (Margaret) 2. Individual models (end 2001…) Practice choices with social influences Practice choices with social influences Local environment / decision model Local environment / decision model Attractivity = f ( self, others, environment) Attractivity = f ( self, others, environment) REAL WORLD VIRTUAL WORLD

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Multi-agent design n Heterogeneous interaction patterns in CA u 4 main layers : water, population, land use, economy u Cells composed with quasi-agents (incl. changing interactions & strategy for change) u Fitting statistical data & some (limited) surveys n Individual models u Multi-criteria model with social influence through versatile social networks u Fitting data and surveys

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Model use scenario 1. Appropriation (Alone / Group) Actors play with model Actors play with model 2. Modification, criticisms (A/G) Actors disagree, propose changes in the M Actors disagree, propose changes in the M 3. Scenarios designs and test (A) 4. Proposals and discussions (G) 5. Transmission to represented people (A  G) 6. Validation of decisions (A & G)

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Calibration & Validation n From data (existing and specific surveys) u Population models u Spatial grains design (crossing grids) u Individual strategic models with questionnaires u Physical (water, flows) time series n From knowledge (participation) u Dynamic relation between issues / objects (qualitative description) u Empirical validation (experts)

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Data needs & requirements  Environment Landuse Landuse Water Water  Population Water demand & use Water demand & use Structure and evolution Structure and evolution Migration preferences & change decisions Migration preferences & change decisions Social networks Social networks  Economy Costs and benefits Costs and benefits

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Population behavior surveys ??? n Characteristics of interviewee (ref pop. data) n Behavior vs. : u Mobility and housing u Water use n Process of change u Self evolution u Social influences

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Problems & questions… 1. Disagregation level & heterogeneous scales 2. Interface for models & participation 3. Relevant parameters (indicators) vs. data 1. Environmental 2. Management 4. Cross-validation 5. Attractivity of waters for populations 6. Validation through role playing games

Barcelona meeting – March 2001 LISC – IRMO – UR3S Conclusion : agenda n FIRMA cooperation : u Can provide : F Actors representation surveys methodologies F Individual decision & population structure surveys F Role playing games methodologies F Hydrological models u Need : F Participative methods theory F Economic valuation methods… F Interfaces, ergonomy F Cognitive (deliberative) models F Qualitative models and representations