B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BPA Energy Efficiency Preliminary Strategies for BPA Evaluations March 24, 2008

BPA Energy Efficiency Objectives and Agenda Goals: Inform RTF of preliminary evaluation strategies Receive feedback on approaches Provide opportunity for regional collaboration Evaluation Strategies: Commercial New Construction: ESD Office Package Energy Smart Grocer Evaluation Strategy DHP (brief, time-permitting)

BPA Energy Efficiency Commercial New Construction: ESD Office Package In 2007 RTF approved CNC Small Office package with savings estimated at 2 kWh/sqfoot Requested evaluation of cost effectiveness of implemented program BPA has developed a pilot program: Energy Smart Design Office Package Intention of precursor to packages for other small commercial construction buildings Evaluation strategy is an integrated process and impact evaluation

BPA Energy Efficiency CNC – ESD Office Package: Process Evaluation Process Evaluation Process evaluation will be in the field early, to see how program is working; test the program logic model Stakeholders to be interviewed include Builders and designers (including non-participants) Retail utilities NEEA and Betterbricks program Staff of BPA, RTF, Council and ETO Timing: 6 months after program kickoff. Likely to provide an interim memo after the first one to three buildings are complete. Improvement feedback will be continuous.

BPA Energy Efficiency CNC – ESD Office Package: Impact Evaluation Primary goals of the impact evaluation: Estimate savings and cost-effectiveness of program Provide feedback to the RTF’s prototype models Data collection: Rebate requires: Building architectural drawings, certification by the building design professional, cooling system cut sheets, window NFRC labels, and checklists for economizer commissioning, integrated design and lighting controls For baseline cost data, evaluator will collect information during early process evaluation with stakeholders and sub- contractors Some additional sub-metering may be required

BPA Energy Efficiency CNC – ESD Office Package: Impact Evaluation, cont’d Estimation of Savings Limited options due to difficulty of baseline (no pre-bills, matching populations tricky) To estimate savings per square foot for buildings: Create an engineering-based energy use model of each building as it is built and operated Calibrate model with actual metered data Likely monthly bills, but sub-metering will be considered Normalize for weather Estimate consumption for standard efficiency baseline when program measures are “removed” Difference between baseline and as-built represents the estimate of gross savings. Extrapolating to the program level is problematic and therefore, the evaluation will strive for a near-census Due to small sample size and heterogeneity of population, results are unlikely to prove/disprove RTF prototypes. Will provide indication of reasonableness.

BPA Energy Efficiency Energy Smart Grocer: Background In 2007, RTF reviewed measures for grocery stores; provisionally deemed some measures, reviewed GrocerSmart software of PECI Requested an impact evaluation to estimate cost-effectiveness of program BPA’s EnergySmart Grocer program targets businesses with refrigeration equipment (convenience stores, restaurants, specialty retailers, institutional kitchens and liquor stores). Implemented by PECI. Currently, 66 customer utilities are enrolled in the program, including Snohomish PUD and Seattle City Light. Offered measures can be categorized into four different types based on the type of ex-ante savings estimates: No Savings: auto-closers and gaskets do not have proven energy savings Deemed Measures: CFLs, other lighting measures, solid door freezers and refrigerators Provisionally deemed. LED case lighting, anti-sweat heat controls, evaporator fan controls, vending machine controllers, evaporative motors in display cases and walk-ins, and night covers. Deemed Calculated: condensers, cases, motors, multiplex compressors and controls, doors and suction line insulation.

BPA Energy Efficiency Energy Smart Grocer: Process Evaluation Process evaluation to assess strengths and weaknesses of program, including direct acquisition structure Interviews will include: BPA program and field staff PECI program and field staff Participating utility DSM and customer account staff Small sample of end-use consumers (stratified by utility, customer type and energy savings) Examples of topics to be addressed include: Is the incentive structure effective and consistent with industry approaches? Are utility customers satisfied with the program offerings and support services, including outreach, initial customer contact, audit results, audit follow-up, delivery services, PECI communication, quality control, measure installations, program comprehensiveness? What aspects of program design/contracting led to administrative efficiencies or burdens? Are end-use consumers satisfied with the program offerings and support services? Are end-use customers signing up for an increasing amount of energy savings measures?

BPA Energy Efficiency Energy Smart Grocer: Impact Evaluation Two-stage impact evaluation to assess cost- effectiveness of program and estimate savings deemed calculated and provisionally deemed measures

BPA Energy Efficiency Grocer Smart Evaluation: Stage 1 Impact Evaluation Stage 1 is bottom-up, engineering based assessment of total program savings No savings measures: Research is currently being conducted. Stage 1 savings will be consistent with the current RTF ruling on these measures. Deemed measures: Installation will be verified, deemed savings values used. Provisionally Deemed measures: Based on resources available, engineers will estimate as-installed savings of provisionally deemed resources and provide feedback to RTF. Deemed Calculated measures comprised over 60% of program savings as of late 2007, including floating head pressure and floating suction controls. Completed Project Review: An engineer will conduct thorough review of the inputs and calculations used in the GrocerSmart software for completed installations of deemed-calculated measures. On-site inspections will be conducted with approximately 10 sites, prioritized by estimated energy savings. Targeted M&V: Sites will be chosen and monitored prior to measure installation. Pre-data collection for 2 weeks. Results provide estimates of measure-specific and overall site savings. Results will be compared with EnergySmart software calculations. Costs will be collected from PECI. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be conducted and recommendations for improvement will be provided.

BPA Energy Efficiency Grocer Smart Evaluation: Stage 2 Impact Evaluation Impact evaluation must estimate total energy impacts and cost- effectiveness of the EnergySmart Program. Performed using a statistical analysis of pre- and post-installation energy consumption characteristics. Multiple methods may prove to be successful in estimating energy savings, including a fixed-effects regression or a statistically-adjusted engineering (SAE) approach. Robust regression analyses require minimal variation in the sample characteristics. No sites will be removed, methods will be used to reduce bias in regression results. E.g., account for customer types, square footage and number of meters; separate analysis into subsets of buildings with known size variances Due to the heterogeneity of the population and measures installed, it may be difficult to estimate savings measure categories. To extent possible, analysis will provide granular savings realization rates, e.g., end-use category, building type, size of facility. Impact results from the analyzed sample will be extrapolated to the population and cost-effectiveness will be recalculated.

BPA Energy Efficiency Ductless Heat Pumps BPA is close to offering a pilot rebate for ductless heat pumps, with participation requirements BPA is working closely with NEEA to coordinate implementation Evaluation is one area where regional coordination is likely necessary Suggestions welcome of best regional way to proceed with the effort BPA has reviewed the RTF scope of work for DHP and is committed to: 50 units of sub-metering (quad) of retrofit sites for 1 year, ASAP 14 already in the field, will sub-contract analysis and installation of additional 35 Billing analysis starting in summer of 2009 Will require basic participant statistics and billing data (at time of participation and one-year later)