Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 July 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Canada and US: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression #2 affected southern Texas, a slow-moving front enhanced rainfall across the plains, and a heat wave affected the eastern US. Over the next 7 days wet weather is forecast to continue for the nation’s mid-section, and drier than average weather is expected over western Canada and the Gulf Coast States. Mexico and Central America: Tropical Depression #2 brought a second week of heavy rainfall to northern Mexico, while an active convective pattern brought above-average rains to Central America. Enhanced tropical convection favors heavy rainfall potential for Central America over the next seven days. Eurasia: Above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation continued across western Russia, while dry conditions prevailed in southeast Asia and southern China. Tropical cyclone Conson is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the northern Philippines this week, while below-average precipitation is expected to continue in western Russia. Highlights

ENSO Current Status General Summary: ENSO neutral conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures (SST) continue to decrease across much of the Pacific Ocean. Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June-August During the last 4 weeks (13 Jun – 10 Jul 2010), SSTs were at least 0.5 deg C below average between 160 W and the South American coast. For more information go to:

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The MJO index is currently weak and centered over the Western Hemisphere. The GFS forecast of the MJO indicates some increase in amplitude and some eastward propagation into the Indian Ocean by Week-2.

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Seasonably dry conditions have persisted in the southwest US. During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near to below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in southeast Asia and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEPMonsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (4 Jul – 10 Jul 2010), anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation centers were located over the Mediterranean Sea and the Northeast Pacific, with anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers located over eastern North America and east-central Asia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C A A C

Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (27 Jun – 3 Jul 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over Mexico, southeast Europe and eastern Asia (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, a slow-moving frontal boundary brought repeated episodes of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain across the Upper Midwest and the Plains, while below-average precipitation continued across the mid-Atlantic and southeast US. Tropical Depression #2 brought enhanced rains to south Texas. Near average rainfall occurred across much of Canada.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Alex and Tropical Depression #2 have led to well-above average precipitation totals across south Texas. Enhanced moisture associated with these tropical cyclones have interacted with slow-moving fronts have contributed to above-average rains across the Plains. Below-average precipitation has been observed across the Mid Atlantic and southeast US, and in parts of the Canadian Prairies.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days heavy rain and thunderstorms have contributed to river flooding across parts of the central US, with enhanced rainfall over southern Texas from Hurricane Alex and T.D. #2. Below average precipitation has been observed in the southeast, mid-Atlantic, and parts of northern Canada.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum During the past 7 days temperatures were near average in the Canadian Prairies, with above to well- above average temperatures in southeast Canada Maximum temperatures reached 25 to 30C in the Prairies, and reached 30 to 35C in much of Ontario and Quebec. AnomalyExtreme Maximum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days, temperatures were above- average across the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States. A heat wave took place across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the early to middle part of last week. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s were common in these areas, with some locations breaking 100 degrees for at least 3 days. In Mexico, recent heavy rainfall and saturated soils over northern Mexico contributed to below- average temperatures. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 12 Jul 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts some rain to return to the mid-Atlantic and the southeast, an area in need of rain given recent dryness in these regions. Areas of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the Plains. Below-average precipitation is expected for the southeast, Great Lakes and western Canada. There are no organized areas of tropical cyclone activity evident in the tropics at this time, and disorganized activity is forecast to continue for the Atlantic basin.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts continued wet weather for the Plains, with daily shower and thunderstorm activity across the southeast. A return to dry conditions is expected for the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast. Forecasts from 12 Jul 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 28 Jun 2010 Valid Jul 2010 Forecast from 6 Jul 2010 Valid 6 – 12 Jul 2010 Observed 5 – 11 Jul 2010 Anomaly Total

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly For more information see: During the past 7 days, T.D. #2 brought enhanced rains to northeast Mexico. Slightly above- average rainfall occurred across parts of Central America.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, very heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Alex and TD #2 has led to well above-average rains in northeast Mexico.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 6 Jul 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 enhanced tropical convection is expected to result in above-average rainfall across Central America.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 12 Jul 2010– Week 2 For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts enhanced precipitation for most of eastern and southern Mexico, with drier than average weather across Panama.

Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 28 Jun 2010 Valid 5 – 11 Jul 2010 Forecast from 6 Jul 2010 Valid 6 – 12 Jul 2010 Observed 5 – 11 Jul 2010 Anomaly Total

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed across southeast Asia and southern China. The Yangtze River basin in central China and central India observed above- average rainfall. Near average precipitation was observed across most of Europe and the Middle East.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days above-average precipitation has been observed over southeastern Europe, parts of the Middle East, southern China and Indonesia. Below-average precipitation has been observed over northeast Europe, western Russia, northern China and southeast Asia.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum AnomalyExtreme Maximum During the past 7 days above average temperatures were observed for a second week in Europe, with highs over 30C in western crop areas.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Maximum Above-average temperatures were observed over western Russia with highs in the mid to upper 30s. The above- average temperatures are also co-located with areas that are in 30-day precipitation deficits. In the Newlands, temperatures were near to slightly cooler than average.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Maximum Above-average temperatures were observed across most of China. In India, temperatures were above- average in eastern districts and near average in western districts.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 12 Jul 2010 – Days 1-7 For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Monday at 4pm) For Days 1-7 below average rainfall is expected in western Russia and southeast Asia. Tropical cyclone Conson is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the northern Philippines in the next couple days. Moisture from tropical cyclone Conson may also impact southeast China. The developing La Nina supports wet conditions across Indonesia.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is expected in western Russia, central China and the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa, while above average precipitation is expected in western Indonesia and northern China. Forecasts from 12 Jul 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 28 Jun 2010 Valid 5 – 11 Jul 2010 Forecast from 6 Jul 2010 Valid 6 – 12 Jul 2010 Observed 5 – 11 Jul 2010 Anomaly Total

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