Announcements… The end of the quarter is this Friday ▫Check your grades online ▫Turn in any missing assignments Quiz Friday--Voting ▫Expect a study guide on Wednesday ▫If you are not going to be here on Friday—you will need to make up the quiz when you come back from spring break ▫This quiz may or may not be included on the end-of-quarter grades. Assume that it will be.

Poll Survey of public ▫a questioning of the population or of a representative sample to tally opinions or gather other information

Issue Poll Survey and measurement of the public on a particular issue

Favorability Polls Measuring the quality or degree of being viewed favorably or positively

Margin of Error Statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results ▫The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures

Public Opinion How is it formed?

Public opinion Attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters of government and politics ▫Public opinions ▫Opinions of different publics

Multiple Publics Not many issues capture the attention of all—or even nearly all—Americans

Multiple Publics Public opinion includes only those views that relate to public affairs ▫Politics ▫Public issues ▫Making of public policies

Public Opinion Must involve something of general concern and of interest to a significant portion of the people as a whole

Expression Oral ▫Town Hall Meetings on health care reform

Expression Written

Expression Protest demonstration

Expression Film Fahrenheit 911 Trailer

Expression Billboard

Expression Vote for or against a candidate

Influences/political socialization ▫Family  Children first see the world from the family’s eyes ▫Fundamental attitudes  Authority and rules of behavior  Property  Neighbors  People of other races/religions ▫Education  Teach children the values of the American political system ▫Age, race, income, occupation, residence, group affiliations, etc. ▫Mass media ▫Peer groups ▫Opinion leaders ▫Historic events

In general: Voting Lobbying Books Pamphlets Magazines/newspapers Editorial comments Paid advertisements Letters to editors, public officials

Means don’t tell much about: ▫Size of the group ▫How strong the opinion is

Elections Vote for candidates Not always accurate measures of public opinion ▫Why are people voting? ▫Agreeing with every plank ▫Vague positions

Interest Groups Private organizations ▫Members share certain views ▫Work to shape the making and the content of public policy How many people does an interest group represent? How strong are the positions?

Media “Mirrors” and “molders” of public opinion Editorials, syndicated columns, news magazines, TV commercials… Often reflect only the view of the vocal minority

Personal Contacts Public officials use to keep in touch with large numbers of people ▫Job is to “read” the public’s mind Some are quite accurate Others are not ▫Only find what they want to find

Polls: The Best Measure Collect information by asking people questions Accurate polls are based in scientific polling techniques

Straw Votes Ask a large number of people the same question Highly unreliable ▫Nothing in the process ensures that those who respond will represent a reasonable accurate cross section of a total population ▫Quantity rather than quality

Polling: A Scientific Process Define the universe ▫-who makes up the population? Construct a sample ▫Poll everyone in a small group ▫Random sample  Law of probability ▫Quota sample  Deliberately constructed to reflect population  Less reliable

Study Guide: Chapters to review Political Parties and Campaigns ▫Ms. Berndt’s assignments History of Voting ▫6.1, 6.3 Voter Qualifications ▫Basically—who can vote? ▫How has this changed? Voter Behavior and Apathy; How people vote ▫6.4 PSAs: basic info from PPT Voter disenfranchisement/suffrage ▫6.3, suffrage worksheet Elections: basic ideas that we have talked about in class Electoral College ▫13.5

Preparing Valid Questions Wording ▫Try not to use “loaded” terms ▫Try not to shape answers

Interviewing Face-to-face or telephone/mail Same techniques must be used Pollster’s appearance Wording  Emotional reactions  “ought to” answer

Analyze and Report Findings Computers and other technologies

Evaluating Polls Difficult to measure ▫Intensity ▫Stability ▫Relevance Bandwagon effect

Limits Major—but not only—influence U.S. constitutional government ▫Does not give free, unrestricted power to public opinion, or even majority opinion ▫Separation of powers, checks and balances  Protect minority interests Not elections