U.S. Challenges in the Middle East since 1990 Peter L. Hahn Ohio State University

U.S. Challenges in the Middle East since 1990 Persian Gulf War, Containment of Iraq, Rise of terrorism, 1980s-1990s Invasion of Afghanistan, Invasion of Iraq,

Persian Gulf War, Origins –Saddam Hussein and Iranian revolution –Iran-Iraq War, –Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, August 1990

Persian Gulf War Origins U.S. Responses –Deterrence (re. Saudi Arabia): Operation Desert Shield

Persian Gulf War Origins U.S. Responses –Deterrence (re. Saudi Arabia): Operation Desert Shield –Liberation of Kuwait: Operation Desert Storm Air (Jan.-Feb. 1991) Land (Feb. 1991)

Persian Gulf War Origins U.S. Responses –Deterrence (re. Saudi Arabia): Operation Desert Shield –Liberation of Kuwait: Operation Desert Storm Air (Jan.-Feb. 1991) Land (Feb. 1991) –Iraq Liberation deferred

Containment of Iraq Aims

Containment of Iraq Aims Means –Financial sanctions –Restrictions on military mobility –International inspections –Occasional military strikes

Containment of Iraq Aims Means –Financial sanctions –Restrictions on military mobility –International inspections –Occasional military strikes Assessment

Terrorism Global and historical context Rise of Islamic fundamentalism

Terrorism Global and historical context Rise of Islamic fundamentalism Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda

Terrorism Global and historical context Rise of Islamic fundamentalism Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda War below the radar –Terrorist attacks –U.S. responses

Terrorism Global and historical context Rise of Islamic fundamentalism Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda War below the radar 9/11

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Background –Soviet invasion, –Civil war leading to Taliban control,

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Background Low intensity war, –1998 U.S. missile attacks –1999 U.N. financial sanctions –2001 assassination of Ahmad Shah Masood

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Background Low intensity war, Military conquest, –Post-9/11 U.S. assault, October 2001 –NATO establishes ISAF, January 2002 –NATO takes command of Kabul, 2004; whole country, 2006

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Background Low intensity war, Military conquest, State-building, 2001— –Bonn summit 12/01 forms interim government –Loya Jirga elects Hamid Karzai as president, to 2004 –Loya Jirga adopts constitution, 2004 –Elections: pres.: 2004; parl.: 2005

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Background Low intensity war, Military conquest, State-building, 2001— Recent trouble –Taliban resurgence

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Recent trouble –Taliban resurgence –Political tensions Karzai re-elected 2009, but political instability Opium production and corruption

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Recent trouble –Taliban resurgence –Political tensions –U.S. military dynamics Bush: “quiet surge,” 4,500 troops, Obama: 30K new troops (100K total), 12/09 NATO: in 2010, indicated departure by 2014 Nov 2011: U.S. talks with Karzai re. 10-year pact

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan Recent trouble –Taliban resurgence –Political tensions –U.S. military dynamics –Peace talks with Taliban??

U.S. Invasion of Iraq Origins: Bush decision for war –Pitfalls of containment –Impact of 9/11 –Fear of WMD –Personal and psychological factors Maneuvering toward war

U.S. Invasion of Iraq Origins: Bush decision for war Maneuvering toward war The Twenty-One Day War

U.S. Invasion of Iraq Origins: Bush decision for war Maneuvering toward war The Twenty-One Day War Occupation –U.S. errors –Mounting insurgency –Surge, 2007— –Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, 12/11 –Balance sheet