The Future of Foresight in Technology and Innovation Policy for Development Luke Georghiou University of Manchester Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca UNIDO

Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight – Present and Future Part I

The New Global Setting Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; electronics, ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells, nanotechnologies New international regulations and standards, trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage Global value chains and production networks emerge in all types of industries managed by multinational companies and global buyers Companies and governments in developing countries are even more affected by changes on global setting

Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional framework Under-developed technology and innovation promotion capabilities Short-term thinking and reactive mode action System linkage failures and poor coordination Disconnection of application of new technologies from socio-economic problems Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary focus Low technology and innovation intensity in industry Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis (brain drain, demography) Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure

Response to emerging challenges and opportunities Redefining policies compatible with global industrial interconnections –Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for competitiveness and sustainable development Connecting national industries to global value chains –Need of global positioning of national industries Through comparing performance and drivers –Up-grading industrial capabilities Enhancing industrial governance Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight methodologies

National economy boundary Domestic industrial cluster Global customers Large-scale, multi- outlet retailers Small-scale retailers Global buyers Buyer and export agents Local customers Large-scale or multi- plant manufacturers Small-scale manufacturers Small-scale suppliers Global industrial interconnections

Global industries Industrial Clusters Connecting national industry to global value chains Systems Supp ort Systems Support Governance system Framework conditions

Global Links Linking, liberating and learning FDI and domestic capability building Import of capital goods Trade performance Capabilities Human Capital Technology and innovation Modern infrastructure Enabling business environment Regulatory framework Credit ranking Infrastructure Cost of doing business Cost of production Governance Industrial governance Economic transformation index Corporate social responsibility Economic freedom Performance GDP per capita Competitive industrial performance PovertyEnvironment Gender development Trade diversification Global Positioning of National Industries

Drivers Country position First Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Last Quartile PerformancePerformanceX Business EnvironmentBusiness EnvironmentX Technology and InnovationTechnology and InnovationX Global linkagesGlobal linkagesX GovernanceGovernanceX Comparing Performance/Drivers

Up-grading Industrial Capabilities

Industrial Governance GOVERNMENT Guides the overall strategy process and focuses on strategic tasks and policy issues PRIVATE SECTOR Identify and assess challenges and opportunities and organize collective responses SUPPORT SYSTEM Analyze trends Support clusters Strengthen capabilities and global links REGIONS Promote and Support the development of local clusters

Promotion of a foresight culture and application of the foresight methodology Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process Introducing a forward-looking attitude Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socio-economic issues

UNIDO Initiative on Technology Foresight

Development objectives Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potentialContribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levelsFoster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmesDefinition of innovation policies and R&D programmes

Components Awareness building and foresight cultureAwareness building and foresight culture National and Regional / Supra-national capabilitiesNational and Regional / Supra-national capabilities Regional and International coordination – Partnerships promotionRegional and International coordination – Partnerships promotion

UNIDO support International Conferences and workshops on best practices and methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate)International Conferences and workshops on best practices and methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate) Promoting industry participationPromoting industry participation Task force of experts and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercisesTask force of experts and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercises Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countriesConducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countries Cooperation in the post-foresight processCooperation in the post-foresight process

Tools and methodologies Book on International Practices on Technology ForesightBook on International Practices on Technology Foresight UNIDO Manual on Technology ForesightUNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight Web page: page: CD-ROM collectionCD-ROM collection Delphi on-lineDelphi on-line TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)

Regional or Supra-national dimension Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmesForesight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmes Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networkingEnhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networking Reduce costs by sharing common activitiesReduce costs by sharing common activities Awareness of global and regional trendsAwareness of global and regional trends Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problemsJoint vision and solutions for cross-border problems Concentration of plurinational production chainsConcentration of plurinational production chains

Foresight Exercise for Production Chains Products Production processes Markets Identification of: Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries Required cooperation for technology up-grading

Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Participation of different countries Plurinational Complex production chains Multisectorial

Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises Supra-national levelSupra-national level National levelNational level Sub-national levelSub-national level Company levelCompany level

Regional or Supra-national foresight exercises and activities Some issues have to be examined on higher than national level or international cooperation is required Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-7) Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7) Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food industry and Automotive industry (2003) Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6) Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7) Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries ( )

National foresight programmes Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood, construction Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology, energy and transportation and logistics Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and capability

Sub-national foresight Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies of large countries Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation

Corporate Foresight Technology Fairs of the Future Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia

What for Technology Foresight in developing countries? Improve decision makingImprove decision making Guide technology choicesGuide technology choices Generate alternative trajectories for future developmentGenerate alternative trajectories for future development Enhance learning and improve preparedness for emergenciesEnhance learning and improve preparedness for emergencies Motivate changeMotivate change

Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process

Future UNIDO efforts Support companies in developing countries and economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework.

Background and objectives of Technology Foresight Existing experience and extended mandate for Foresight Part II

Status of foresight Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name Content focus –Priority setting –Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities Structural focus (increasing tendency) –Reorienting Science & Innovation system –Demonstrating vitality of S & I system –Bringing new actors into the strategic debate –Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around problems Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously –All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains

Context of move to open innovation Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy Concept of innovation ecosystem Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies –Also an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters, platforms and supply chains –Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities and effective demand

Existing experience – in public policy Large body of experience logged by EFMN Multiple engagement but adaptation and experimentation rather than repetition Families of approach –Critical technologies; Delphi; Horizon scanning; Accession/transition

Existing experience - corporate Foresight in business vs Foresight for business Functions include anticipatory intelligence, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation and innovation catalysis Trend to “open foresight” in terms of participation, scope and delineation In developing countries particular challenge to build capability and to connect to wider environments

Five generations of Foresight FIRST GENERATION Technology forecasts SECOND GENERATION Technology and markets THIRD GENERATION Technology, markets and the social dimension FOURTH GENERATION Distributed Role in Innovation System FIFTH GENERATION Structural & broad policy focus

Policy Transfer & Learning in Foresight Gains from –Cost reduction through shared efforts –Accessing foresight expertise, training and experience –Accessing broader &/or complementary domain expertise –Addressing transnational problems Failure can result from: –Uninformed transfer borrowing country has insufficient information about the policy that is being transferred with the result the policy is imperfectly implemented. –Incomplete transfer crucial elements of a policy or programme that made the policy or programme a success are not transferred. –Inappropriate transfer insufficient consideration given to social, economic, political and ideological differences between the borrowings and the transferring country leading to programme failure All issues that become more important still when transfer is from developed economy to emerging, transition or developing –Role for UNIDO in helping policy transfer to be contextualised and informed by previous relevant experience

Extending the Mandate – structural focus Overcoming market and system failures Microeconomic climate for innovation Addressing deficiencies in firms –Resources –Incentives –Capabilities –Opportunities Also use foresight to address deficiencies in system capacity for strategic development Foresight as balancing and linking mechanism

Foresight for policy vs Foresight as policy For policy –Use as a tool to inform and develop policy in any area –Also for “joining up” policy across domains –In our domain normally areas of policy with a strong science/ research input As policy –Use as an instrument to implement budgetary, structural or cultural changes –In our domain as an instrument of research and/or innovation policy

A taxonomy of research and innovation policies

Strategic behaviour Impact of foresight involves interaction of foresight outputs with the strategic behaviour of policy and economic actors Two way lesson –Possibility to use as means to influence corporate/business strategy –Need for foresight design to build in interface with existing strategic processes where possible

Emerging role for foresight in New Wave Demand-side innovation policy Need to understand foresight in context of range of tools for innovation policy and how it can interact with, strengthen and be strengthened by combinations with other policies Particular opportunities in demand- oriented innovation policies –Clusters and technology platforms built on base of common visions –Public procurement for innovative goods and services again driven by shared visions

Conclusion (1) Extended mandate Present UNIDO role in foresight continues to be valid Opportunity for extended mandate –Promotion of foresight as instrument for innovation policy and as a means of bringing S&I to bear on wider policy domains –Support for UNIDO in delivering strategy of productivity enhancement for social advance

Conclusion (2)- Link to demand side innovation policy Promotion of foresight in new wave demand side innovation policy Need to engage users and regulators as well as developers of technology Fast track development of open innovation system Address areas such as clusters, platforms and procurement policy Implication that UNIDO needs to build capacity for innovation-linked foresight in range of sectoral ministries and agencies –Health, eco-innovation, food, housing, transport

Conclusion (3) – Situating foresight Combine elements of 4 and 5G foresight –Shift from monolithic national to distributed multi-level embedment in innovation system –Supporting firms in knowledge acquisition Also recognise role for foresight in restructuring innovation system UNIDO instruments largely unchanged but content extended to broader range of actors and themes within productive sectors Partnerships for foresight as core for knowledge based economic initiatives –Working with other international agencies

Conclusion (4) – and broader support for UNIDO activities Preparing global forum and technical cooperation programmes Incorporate technology trends work in the initiatives such as biotechnology, technology parks and centres, ICT, investment promotion, critical technologies for Africa Working with other technology related Branches of UNIDO – Agro-Industries and Sectoral Support, Private Sector Development, Trade Capacity-building, Energy and Cleaner Production, Research and Statistics as well as the Regional Bureaus and field offices.