Global Market Trends & Traps Produced by: Robert Parker, Senior Advisor, Credit Suisse March 2010

Slide 2 Key questions for global markets & investment strategy  What is the risk of economic recovery fading in the developed economies?  Is there a fundamental switch in growth occurring in favour of the emerging economies?  Is the recent upturn in inflation sustainable or will there be a return to deflation?  What future credit and market shocks will occur?  Will the positive equity returns of 2009 be repeated and how will the pattern of equity markets both by geography & sector, evolve?  Is the rally in credit in fixed income over and given budget deficits, how much risk exists in government bond markets?  Can the strength of the US dollar continue in 2010 and what are the risks of a US dollar reversal?  Given the strength of emerging market demand, will commodities outperform?

Slide 3 The global recession ended in mid-2009 and in early 2010, the recovery is robust Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 4 The growth recovery is led by Asia Last data point: Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC

Slide 5 PMI data indicates further strength in activity Last data point: Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IMF, PMIPremium, Credit Suisse / IDC

Slide 6 In the next six months, the UK and the Eurozone PMI’s should lag the US & Asia Last data point: Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

Slide 7 Japan still has deflation, while inflation in the US & Europe is peaking Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 8 Cumulative interest rate expectations over 12 months Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: In the US and Europe, interest rate tightening will be slow. Japan will not raise rates

Slide 9 Central bank balance sheets Liquidity withdrawal will be slow Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 10 The US housing market is forming a base, but there is no immediate recovery Strong correlation between house price growth and home building activity Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 11 The increase is US savings will constrain growth Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 12 High Euro unemployment will constrain growth Capacity utilization has begun to improve. However, inflation risks look low for the foreseeable future Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 13 Budget balance as % of GDP (BRIC, Japan, Euro Area, UK, USA) Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 14 Japanese Exports - Rising importance of China vs. US Regional trade is growing significantly reducing the dependence on the US Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 15 China interest rates and reserve requirement ratios Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: China is tightening monetary policy, but slowly

Slide 16 Performance - MSCI World Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC Last data point: The equity return over the past decade has been flat

Slide 17 CS risk appetite Last data point: Source: Credit Suisse / IDC

Slide 18 Global defensives to cyclicals ratio Increase equity exposure to high quality defensive sectors Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide month forward P/E - MSCI World Equity valuations are attractive Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 20 US EPS & leading indicators Last data point: Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

Slide 21 Latin America vs. Asia vs. EMEA Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide month forward P/E - BRIC Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 23 10Y Government Bond Yield. Yields are likely to trend higher Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 24 CDS Spread selected EU governments vs. USA & UK Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 25 US credit spreads by rating categories Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: The credit rally is vulnerable to profit-taking

Slide 26 Eurozone corporate bonds by sectors. Financials are relatively cheap Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 27 Fair Value (FV) Deviation in % vs. USD Source: Datastream, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 28 DXY Dollar and 2Y Swap Spread USD minus weighted G6 yields Interest rate spreads are still not in favor of the USD against other currencies which over the long term is likely to limit upside for the dollar Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 29 GBP/USD and 2Y Swaps (since 2004) Rate spreads are likely to remain narrow as BOE is stuck at 0.5%. We see more GBP/USD upside due to our bearish USD view, targeting 1.70 in 12M Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 30 USD/JPY and 2Y Swaps (since 2004) Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 31 AUD/USD and 2Y Swap Spread Interest rate differentials have widened and are supporting AUD/USD Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 32 Credit Suisse commodity indices Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 33 Commodity Valuation: CRB Index Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 34 Source: EIA, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: Global crude oil demand and supply growth Global oil demand continues to recover and supply has started to grow as well. We think the oil market has started a new cycle and expect moderately higher prices in 2010

Slide 35 Copper price vs. inventories Falling ore grades should keep supply tight, while demand prospects look promising. We anticipate a tighter market balance in 2010 and therefore expect higher prices Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 36 Gold price vs. speculative net longs Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 37 Platinum price vs. speculative net longs Platinum supply might remain flat at best, while demand from the car industry is likely to increase in the coming months. The market should tighten accordingly and price pressure should build to the upside Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 38 Wheat price vs. speculative net longs We think that over the longer term wheat prices are likely to benefit from rising demand, while medium-term upside potential is likely to be capped due to the supply surplus Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point:

Slide 39 Conclusions and strategy  US and Japanese growth should surprise positively in 1H10, but fade thereafter  UK and European growth will be mediocre with the weaker Euroland economies and Eastern Europe struggling to emerge from recession  Growth leadership will come from Asia and Latin America  Japan remains in deflation, inflation in Europe is slowing and the upturn in inflation in the US and the UK will reverse  The upturn in inflation in emerging markets is being met by tighter monetary policies  After the set-back in equity markets in early 2010, equity markets should now advance for the rest of the year  Defensive high quality sectors will outperform

Slide 40 Conclusions and strategy  During 2H10, emerging markets should start to outperform again  Dollar strength against the Euro and the pound should reverse during 2H10 as the US economy fades  Asian and Latin American currencies will continue to be subject to upward pressure  The credit rally will now consolidate, bank debt and emerging debt are attractive  Government bonds will see moderate selling pressure

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