The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) Australia change? Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia

Adoption of technology The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years. However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by:  policy measures and regulation;  consumer sentiment;  pricing advantage.

Roger’s diffusion curve

Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

Technology energy use

Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security

Trends in car prices and CO How clean are Europe’s cars?

Renewable energy growth Data IEA

Global renewables 2013? Data UNEP

Global electricity …

Global electricity growth - Europe

Australian electricity … Data ABARES

Australian electricity consumption 2012…

Data AEMO

Rapid change - Personal mobility

Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive Private transport

Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux light rail Bombardier wireless light rail Slim Ride -15 passengers Series 700 Shinkansen train – 285 km/h

Commercial vehicles Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids London Bus Haul Pak + Earthmover Mitsubishi Fuso Honda prime mover Oshkosh Military Vehicle

Flying and floating fuels February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight October 30, U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

Green cities Global  Tianjin Eco-City China  Ulsan Ecocity Korea  Masdar City UAE Australia  City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030  City of Melbourne  Stirling City Centre, Perth  City of Fremantle  Yanchep – 2 x Local government critical

Electricity pricing and renewables

Solar on Australian homes WA rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode 6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.

Solar on Australian homes WA rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode 6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.

Solar on WA homes City of Cockburn

Solar on your home

Making solar

Industry chamber for any businesses / enterprise in sustainable energy or being more sustainable Based in Perth, with around 350 members nationally Information, communication, and networking businesses Government advocacy (lobbying) Policy development Legislation, regs and taxation - barriers and incentives Education, skills and training Calls for government leadership - and procurement Industry mapping Energising Kids – energy for the next generation

When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills. Chinese proverb