Leading During Times of Scarcity: Changing Conditions at the Top of the State Larry Kiley, PhD - Ex. Director, Rural Schools Association of NYS John W. Sipple, PhD - Director, NYS Center for Rural Schools

Our Goals -To describe the broad context of NYS -To narrow in on the “Top of the State” -To share our thoughts on the current Challenges, Advantages, Opportunities for leadership in your school districts - To share new resources for you.

Small District Summit March 25th - Syracuse NY 28 School districts serving fewer than 500 students Focus on current trends and future pressures Desire to continue the conversation with larger districts in regional settings.

Major Changes from 1990 to 2000: Fewer Youth 1-9; More Teens, 10-19; Fewer Young Adults 20-34; More Mid-Aged 35-64; Fewer Seniors 65-74; More Elderly 75 & Over

Job Change 1950 – 40% of upstate workers employed in manufacturing 2009 – less than 20% - closer to 15% work in manufacturing –70% of Rural New Yorkers employed in the service industry

Economic Impact (Personal Income) Increasing levels of poverty – average 11% closing in on national average of 12.4% Personal Income has grown at ½ the national average – lagged the country by 11% Workers receive lower wages than counterparts nationwide

School Impact Number of High Need Rural School Districts grew from 144 in 2004 to 158 in 2009 –More than 36% - Free & Reduced Lunch Count –Having lowest average expenditure per pupil ($12,975) –Lowest mean CWR (.48 or less) –Highest state aid ratio (66.8 or more)

Student Population Declined at rate of 1% per year since the year 2000 Rate of decline in High Need Rurals is 1.5% per year since the year 2000

Economic Impact (Property) Property Values on the Increase – particularly Adirondack Park and Catskill Mountains In Migration – Metro New York –Relocation –2nd Homes

Changing Demographics Expectations and Interest of Long Term Residents Expectations and Interests of New Residents Fastest growing Sub population is Hispanic– What does it mean?

Rural Schools Advantaged? Disadvantaged? –Size –Capacity –Expertise –Expectation –Isolation

Pressures? Two state commissions Economy falling off cliff Declining Enrollments Weakening property values Stagnant state-aid High academic standards

County Population Change Source: Program on Applied Demographics, Cornell University

County Population Projections Source: Program on Applied Demographics, Cornell University

Program on Applied Demographics

Table View

Assessed Value/Pupil

Income/Pupil

School Tax Rate (%)

What to do? Program – Look inside and out Any ‘Excess’ Capacity –Space, Staff, Healthcare, Pre-K, Technology Reorganization ( consolidation ) Functional Consolidation ( sharing ) Inter-municipal Agreements (collaborating)

SBHCs: My Experience The first and only “reform” that has absolute, uniform buy-in from school personnel who have one. Collaboration is built on trust and common goals.

Where are they?

1998 Ratio of UPK Slots to 4 yr olds

% of 4-year-olds in Pre-K (All Districts)

Non-School Resources

Empire State Poll (2009) If merger resulted in improved academic and after-school activities, how supportive of merger? 69% NYS, 59% Rural If merger resulted in reduced property taxes, 52% support, 29% not support (rural only)

Empire State Poll (2009) How can schools help local community? Improve preparation for college 58% NYS, 48% Rural Improve preparation for local employment 22% NYS, 25% Rural Desire no change 20% NYS, 27% Rural

Empire State Poll (2009) Among these choices, what would best help your local community? If schools provide... PreK - 27% NYS, 20% Rural Healthcare - 25% NYS, 27% Rural Services for immigrant children - 6% NYS, 7% Rural Services for Parents - 14% NYS, 14% Rural

New York State Center for Rural Schools Three Components Facilitation - Will act as a clearinghouse and conduit to ensure that the needs of rural schools and communities are heard and met Capacity - Expertise, Data, and Access to Data Research - Guided by REAC and the Field

Access to Data & Contact Info &

Questions What are the implications of what you heard today? For leadership in your schools? Communities? What can you take away that might help frame how you move forward? What are your priority areas?