1 Strengthening Risk Governance Capacities for Climate Risk Sanny R. Jegillos UNDP Asia-Pacific Regional Center

2 Risk Governance integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. - International Risk Governance Council

3 Increase in severity of events Tropical Cyclone (TC) Nargis in Myanmar (2008) TC Ketsana, Parma and Mirinae which affected the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Lao PDR (2009) Historic flooding in Thailand and in Pakistan ( )

4 EM-DAT/CRED 2009 Report number of victims from hydro meteorological disasters have increased from 35 million on average per year during to 50.2 million in 2009 out of the 245 disasters in 2009, 224 were weather related, accounting for 55 million people out of the 58 million people affected, 7000 out of 8900 of those killed, and US$15 billion out of the US$19 billion in economic damages.

5 Trends Experienced based Lessons learned Changes in laws, policies, institutional arrangement, approaches. Hyogo Framework for Action

6 But- Recent experiences are confusing ; Hotspots and new historic levels of impact; Past experiences are no longer reliable predictors of future events; changing characteristics of hazards in terms of frequency magnitude, location and other characteristics. Substantial differences in estimating probability of risk?

7 Why is this critical for human development ? Poverty reduction programmes will be at risk. Human development faces constraint. Uncertainty due to climate change is a significant risk to achieving organizational goals.

8 The Millennium Development Goals 1.Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. 2.Achieving universal primary education 3.Promoting gender equality and empowering women 4.Reducing child mortality 5.Improving maternal health 6.Combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases. 7.Ensuring environmental sustainability 8.Developing a global partnership for development

9 Example of disaster impacts on effort to meet the MDGs

10 MDG-Based poverty reduction strategies

11 Paths to attending MDGs: with/without DRR

12 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Direct impacts –Damage to housing, service infrastructure, savings, productive assets and human losses reduce livelihood sustainability. Indirect impacts –Negative macroeconomic impacts including severe short-term fiscal impacts and wider, longer-term impacts on growth, development and poverty reduction. –Forced sale of productive assets by vulnerable households pushes many into long-term poverty and increases inequality.

13 2. Achieve universal primary education Direct impacts –Damage to education infrastructure. –Population displacement interrupts schooling. Indirect impacts –Increased need for child labor for household work, especially for girls. –Reduced household assets make schooling less affordable, girls probably affected most.

14 3. Promote gender equality and empower women Direct impacts –As men migrate to seek alternative work, women/girl bear an increased burden of care. –Women often bear the brunt of distress ‘coping’ strategies e.g. by reducing food intake. Indirect impacts –Emergency programmes may reinforce power structure which marginalize women. –Domestic and sexual violence may rise in the wake of a disaster.

15 4. Reduce child mortality Direct impacts –Children are often most risk, e.g. of drowning in floods. –Damage to health and water and sanitation infrastructure. –Injury and illness from disaster weakness children’s immune systems. Indirect impacts –Increased number of orphan, abandoned and homeless children. –Household asset depletion makes clean water, flood and medicine less affordable.

16 5. Improve maternal health Direct impacts –Pregnant women are often at high risk from death/injury in disasters. –Damages to health infrastructure. –Injury and illness from disaster can weaken women’s health. Indirect impacts –Increased responsibilities and workloads create stress for surviving mothers. –Household asset depletion makes clean water, food and medicine less affordable.

17 6. Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases Direct impacts –Poor health and nutrition following disasters weakens immunity. –Damages to health infrastructure. Increased respiratory diseases associated with damp, dust and air pollution linked to disaster. Indirect impacts –Increased risk from communicable and vector borne diseases, e.g. dengue and diarrheal diseases following floods. –Impoverishment and displacement following disaster can increase exposure to disease, including HIV and AIDS, and disrupt health care.

18 7. Ensure environment sustainability Direct impacts –Damage to key environment resources and exacerbation of soil erosion or deforestation. Damage to water management and other urban infrastructure. –Slum dwellers/people in temporary settlements often heavily affected. Indirect impacts –Disaster-induced migration to urban areas and damage to urban infrastructure increase the number of slum dwellers without access to basic services and exacerbate poverty.

19 8. Develop a global partnership for development. Direct impacts –Impacts on programmes for small island developing states from tropical storms, Tsunami etc. –Impacts on commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – nationally and internationally.

Critical Knowledge Needed Improve understanding of Disaster and Poverty Linkages 20

Intensive & Extensive Risks – Sri Lanka 21 Intensive Risk Extensive Risk Mortality Houses Destroyed

Intensive Risk Concentrated in seismically active regions, coastal zones, flood plains and cyclone track zones; Changes over time with changes in vulnerable populations, economic assets and lifeline infrastructure exposure; Catastrophic in scale thus received formal support in relief and recovery and where structural mitigation measures are implemented. 22

Effects of Intensive Risk to Poverty In El Salvador, the two earthquakes in 2001 led to an estimated per cent increase in poverty. In Honduras, the percentage of poor households increased from 63.1% March 1998 to 65.9 % in March 1999 as a consequence of Hurricane Mitch in October In Vietnam, it is estimated that a further 4-5 per cent of the population could be pushed into poverty in the event of a disaster. In Aceh, Indonesia, the 2004 tsunami is estimated to have increased the proportion of people living below poverty line from 30 to 50 percent. 23

Intensive & Extensive Risks – Nepal 24 Intensive RiskExtensive Risk Mortality Houses Destroyed

Intensive & Extensive Risks – Tamil Nadu 25 Intensive RiskExtensive Risk Mortality Houses Destroyed

Extensive Risk Increasing in Asia due to greater frequency and intensity of extreme climate events; More frequent, dynamic and widespread, affecting livelihoods and poverty: Invisible in official reporting, risks that are unaccounted for and disguise an increasing burden of risk to low income households and communities; Invisible to official response systems, increase burden for coping with consequences of impact since formal support for response recovery and institutional disaster risk management programmes are lacking if not absent. 26

Extensive Risk UNACCOUNTED: 10% more deaths, 80% more affected, 20% more economic loss, 50% more houses damaged, 83% more injured, 45 % more schools damaged and 55% more damages to health facilities 93% are hydro meteorological hazards ( ) in 20 countries studied Comparative analysis at sub national level reveal that risk is increasing most rapidly in small and medium sized urban centers with weaker capacities to manage urban growth, deforestation and destruction of coastal ecosystems are magnifying risk; landslide and flood risk at the local level are closely associated with poverty 27

Recommendations for improving analysis Build and maintain quality disaster loss databases (historical) Improve poverty datasets Use intensive/ extensive analysis to draw attention of policy makers to extensive risks which provide “real time” information for risk accumulation that will eventually result into intensive risk or catastrophic event 28

29 Trends in Climate Risk Impact is unfavorable to Least Developed Countries The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change that “ major natural disasters today can cost an average of 5% of GDP of LDCs ” and further say that the “cost of climate change in South East Asia could be as high as a 9-13% loss in GDP by 2100.“

30 Climate Risk: Cambodia and Timor Leste Relatively low to medium exposure to natural hazards. Vulnerability is a dominant reason for climate risk. Evolution of vulnerability and exposure will depend on the risk management and good governance approaches that will be taken.

31 Capacities (1) Risk Sharing Technology and Infrastructure Institutional and regulatory Risk avoidance Early Warning Systems and Risk Knowledge Research, Education and Risk Communication Community coping mechanism

32 Capacities (2) Capacity to Reduce Vulnerability Capacity to Monitor Risk Capacity for Early Warning and Preparedness Capacity to Respond Capacity to Recover

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