Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas. Methane, Nitrogen oxide, and CFC’s are also contributors. These gasses trap heat from the sun. They have a delicate balance in the atmosphere – too few and we freeze, but too many and we get too hot. Greenhouse Gasses Image / quotes to go in this side bar location

Climate Variability and Climate Change Normals Climate Change Climate Oscillations Climate Variability Normals Short term: (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries) Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO)

Warming doesn’t happen equally everywhere

Causes of Rising Natural Disasters Global Trends in Frequency of Major Natural Disasters Biological Geological Hydrometeorological Adaptation Deficit Number of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 – 2005

Temperature – Past and Future

Is 1 C warming important? Scenario of projected shifts in ecosystems in Glacier National Park

Precipitation – Past and Future

Warming is predicted through 21 st century Increase average temp 2-3 degrees C by 2050s Increase in winter precipitation 1-13% Decrease in summer precipitation -4 to -10% Global Climate Models - Scenarios for Columbia Basin Future climate will be different than the past

What is climate change adaptation? Prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of climate change –The future will be different than the past –Ensure a resilient community

Changes to temperature & precipitation can impact communities in a variety of ways: Impacts: Anticipate Changes What are your risks?  Infrastructure  Local Economy  Health and Safety  Others What are your opportunities?  Agriculture  Recreation  Climate refugees  Others

What changes are you observing that may be related to Climate Change? Identifying Current Impacts

Planning Lifespan Street layout Buildings Infrastructure Unavoidable “surprises” Global peak oil Additional 0.8 degrees warming Global -50% emissions Plan for a different future

Concern: Increasing rain events during winter as temperatures warm Some Considerations: No existing policy to encourage reduction of runoff on properties Will climate change make it better or worse? Can we easily undertake adaptive actions? Process: Assess Vulnerability Example: Stormwater management in Elkford

Process: Risk Assessment Risk = Vulnerability x Probability of an impact Process StepSummary Description Purpose Vulnerability assessment Identifying the “weak” spots Figure out which risks can be adapted to more easily, and which will require substantial resources or other changes. Risk assessmentWhat to pay attention to first Figure out the biggest risks requiring action

Wildfire Create defensible space adjacent to existing structures – reduce forest Require new developments to have defensible space – example: no construction within 300 metres of the dense forest, and the forest adjacent to new development thinned Process: Develop Adaptation Strategies Flooding Identify no-development zones where runoff water may be temporarily stored during a flood event Build flood protection infrastructure / dyke systems Require developments to use pervious materials in driveways and parking lots, and build roads without curbs and gutters Two Examples of Strategies from Elkford

Additional Adaptation Ideas Tourism & Recreation Snow security strategies for ski resorts Increase mountain biking opportunities Food Security Backyard gardens and markets Planting trees on municipal land that provide fruit Community greenhouses Health Community cooling centers Planting shade trees

Role of Local Governments: responsible for local community development and hazard mitigation; can influence the degree to which a community will be prepared for climate change impacts. Climate Change is a global trend…… and impacts will be felt most locally

Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past. Use scenario based planning to evaluate options (rather than the historic record). Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach. Plan for the long haul. Key things to remember