2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at Monroe Dr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University

PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will be made available for review on-line at: cba.ulm.edu/cber

The Change in Real Louisiana GSP State Rank % changeRank % change Oregon113.6%31-2.7% Wyoming213.0%119.6% Utah312.5%110.2% Texas410.2%15-0.3% Arizona510.0%46-5.9% Louisiana50-6.5%64.1%

State Rank% changeRank% change Louisiana50-6.5%64.1% Arkansas313.4%100.6% Mississippi215.0%90.8% Texas410.2%15-0.3% The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued

Metropolitan Area State Rank % change State Rank % change Lafayette116.7%34.6% Alexandria26.7%7-2.3% Shreveport-Bossier City33.3%19.3% Monroe41.9%6-1.6% Baton Rouge5-7.9%41.8% New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner6-11.3%25.8% Lake Charles7-31.3%50.4% The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA

Population Change by MSA: change in US = 9.7% change in LA = 1.4%

Population Change in NE Louisiana: Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696 NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800

Index of population change (1980=1): US, LA, NELA Hispanic as % of Population Louisiana2.35%4.25% United States6.45%16.35%

Other Economic Indicators

New Light Trucks/Vans: State/Year Louisiana157,665126,57492,10598,783 NE Louisiana10,2018,4186,2817,057

New Automobiles: Louisiana98,08389,25865,78261,637 NE Louisiana4,4624,3763,2543,399

NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles: Source: Cross-Sell Reports

Building Permits:

Housing Permits Ouachita Parish Building Permits Total Cost (millions $) $103.6$89.5$68.0$47.3$38.5$37.3 Building Permit Value: Source: U.S. Census

% Change Median Price RankState% change North Dakota10.2% 2Oklahoma4.0% 3Iowa3.0% 4Louisiana2.6% 5Nebraska2.2% Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States Northeast LA = +3.2% United States = -12.7% Source: National Association of Realtors

And the lowest ranking states: RankState % change in median price California-17.8% 47Idaho-17.9% 48Florida-26.4% 49Arizona-28.6% 50Nevada-31.8%

%chg Baton Rouge $165,000$163,000$169, % New Orleans$160,500$160,100$159, % Monroe$129,000$134,000$135, % Shreveport$138,500$147,000$156, % % Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s: Source: National Association of Realtors

Home Price less than $200, Close price $115,000$118,000$114,500 Price per Sq Foot$71.05$73.49$72.11 Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200, Close price $252,000$249,900$252,000 Price per Sq Foot$106.41$106.33$ All Existing Homes Close price $128,850$133,000 Price per Sq Foot$77.12$80.81$79.73 Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise… Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS

Under $200, $200,000 and up Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA:

listings sales Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union

And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0 Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%) Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%) U.S (+13.8%) Source: U.S. Federal Court Ouachita Parish Foreclosures Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate):

The Labor Market

Total Covered Employment (Jobs): Figures as of 2 nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.

Construction:

Manufacturing:

Retail Trade:

Finance and Insurance:

Health Care & Social Assistance: *US data contains both education and health care

Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):

Unemployed Dec-07Dec-10 Alexandria2,5464,720 Baton Rouge13,52927,103 Houma2,6795,213 Lafayette3,5964,656 Lake Charles3,5306,379 Monroe3,5246,139 New Orleans17,07238,136 Shreveport7,79912,079 Unemployment Rate (%) Dec-07Dec-10 Alexandria Baton Rouge Houma Lafayette Lake Charles Monroe New Orleans Shreveport Unemployment by MSA: Source: Laworks.net US 12/2010=9.1% LA 12/2010=7.2%

Dec-09 RDec-10 R Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana 1,890,0001,899,300 Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana1,518,7001,534,700 Dec 2007 RDec 2009 RDec 2010 R Mining & Logging51,60047,30052,300 Oil & Gas Extraction7,9008,9008,600 Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext7,8008,6008,000 Support Activities for Mining39,20036,40039,600 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells9,6007,3009,000 Louisiana Employment: LA continued weekly unemployment claims = -24.2% US continued weekly unemployment claims = -20.5%

Regional Outlook

Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years: Manufacturing Autos Food processing Telecommunications Financial Services/Information

Jobs (f/t equivalent): 2, , % - 8.2% HH Income($ millions):$ $ % - 7.5% 5 year estimates of growth (range): % change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes

Threats to local economic activity: Next Auto fails to obtain Federal Loan Cuts to State Government Higher Education Amounts unknown K-12 education Probably not

The Impact of Gardner Denver Thomas F/T Equivalent JobsHH Income Direct Effects230$9.2 Million Indirect Effects300$7.5 Million Total Impact530$16.7 Million Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas:

Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA. 100% of Spending F/T equivalent JobsHH Income From University Spending5,830$340 million From Student Spending2,020$37 million Total Impact7,850$377 million 5% Cut in Spending F/T equivalent JobsHH Income -292-$17.0 million -101-$1.85 million -393-$18.85 million And a 5% cut in State funding: Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents

Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit. ?’s