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Sales from reported to like-for-like (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change SALES (reported) % Currency translation impact ($ and £) Changes in consolidation scope (Korea Ratings) SALES(like-for-like) %
Sales by company (reported) (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change FITCH GROUP Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) % Korea Ratings 19.2 Algorithmics % Intercompany eliminations SALES(reported) % (*) (*) Sales split of Korea Ratings (6 months) Ratings : €8.9m Other : €10.3m
Sales by company (like-for-like) (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change FITCH GROUP Fitch Ratings % Algorithmics % Intercompany eliminations SALES(like-for-like) %
2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) % 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % 1USA % % 2UK % % 3Germany % % 4 South Korea % % 5Netherlands % % 6France % % 7Spain % % 8Italy % % 9Japan % % 10Ireland7.81.2% % % of TOTAL SALES (reported) 80.9%81.1% Sales by geographic regions (reported)
From sales to recurring operating income (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change Sales (reported) % Operating expenses Recurring operating income (reported) % Currency translation impact ($ and £) Changes in consolidation scope (Korea Ratings) -2.6 RECURRING OPERATING INCOME (like-for-like) %
(in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change FITCH GROUP % Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) % Korea Ratings 2.6 Algorithmics Other (Parent company and holdings) RECURRING OPERATING INCOME (reported) % Recurring operating income by company (reported)
Recurring operating income by company (like-for-like) Operating margin (ROI / Sales) Operating margin (ROI / Sales) 19.0 % 20.1 % (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change FITCH GROUP % Fitch Ratings % Algorithmics % Other (Parent company and holdings) RECURRING OPERATING INCOME (like-for-like) %
From recurring operating income to operating result (reported) (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change Recurring operating income (reported) % Other operating income and expense OPERATING RESULT (reported) %
From operating result to net earnings (reported) (in € millions) 2005/2006 (oct 05 - sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) Change Change Operating result (reported) % Net interest expense Other financial income / (expense) Taxes Equity in net earnings of affiliated companies Net earnings from discontinued operations and in process of disposal (20% Fitch Group and 100% Facom Group)461.9 Minority interests NET EARNINGS Groupe share (reported)
Evolution of Fimalac’s shareholding 09/ 30/ / 30/ 2007 Majority shareholder 65.7 % 66.3 % Treasury stocks 3.7 % 6.9 % Including reserved treasury stocks (stock options) 1.1 % Others 30.6 % 26.8 % %
Cash and cash equivalents / (net debt) by company (in € millions) 09/ 30/ / 30/ 2007 Fitch Group Parent company and holdings Net cash position (excl. building) North Colonnade (London building) - 225
Fimalac share performance vs. CAC 40 and SBF 120 December 1992 to November 15, 2007 Dec-92Dec-93Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05 Dec-06 Nov CAC FIMALAC SBF
"Total Shareholder Return" over 10 years SBF120 companies Source FACTSET Ranking TSR Over 10 yearsAnnualized in % in % in % in % As at Nov. 15, 2007
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History
Fitch Group Structure 80%20% 100%
Fitch Group (including Korea Ratings) Revenue Growth In $ Mil
Fitch Group (including Korea Ratings) Operating Income Growth (EBIT)
Fitch Group (including Korea Ratings) Sales to Operating Income in US$ millions 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % Change Revenue % Personnel costs % External expenses % Total charges Total charges % EBITDA % Profit sharing plan Depreciation Intangible assets amortization Operating Income %
Key Figures by Company (in US$ millions) 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07 ) % Change Revenue FITCH GROUP % Fitch Ratings % Korea Ratings Algorithmics % Intercompany revenue EBITDA FITCH GROUP % Fitch Ratings % Korea Ratings -5.2 Algorithmics Operating Income FITCH GROUP % Fitch Ratings % Korea Ratings -3.4 Algorithmics
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Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Revenue growth (in millions of US$)
Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Revenue by Segment (in US$ millions) 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % Change Structured Finance Corporate Finance % Subscriptions /Training % TOTAL FITCH RATINGS % %
Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Revenue by Region (in US$ millions) 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % Change North America % Europe, Middle East & Africa % Latin America % Asia Pacific % TOTAL FITCH RATINGS %
Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) EBITDA and Operating Income (in US$ millions) 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % Change Revenue % EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 40.4%40.9% Profit sharing plan Depreciation & Amortization Operating Income % Operating Income Margin 30.8%30.6%
Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Investment in Human Capital Headcount
Fitch Ratings Investment in Korea Ratings In April 2007, Fitch acquired 53% of Korea Ratings Corporation, the leading Korean credit rating agency Fitch and Korea Ratings first entered into a strategic alliance in 1999 Since then, Fitch and Korea Ratings have collaborated on the provision of credit ratings and risk management services, as well as hosting joint conferences and seminars. Fitch made its first equity investment in Korea Ratings in Korea aspires to become Northeast Asian financial hub. 2006 Domestic bond issuance – USD18.2 BN 2006 International bond issuance – USD16.8BN Expands Fitch’s footprint in the region 15 offices throughout Asia in 11 countries 230 professionals in the region
Important Trends in 2007 Strong market volumes through June Emerging credit issues in subprime Residential Mortgage Backed Securities evident in late 2006 began to accelerate Extension of subprime weakness into Structured products (CDOs, SIVs, Asset Backed Commercial Paper) and Corporates (Financial Institutions and Monolines) Significant deterioration in Structured Finance market volumes High grade Corporate issuance strong due to bank funding / capital needs, reduction of commercial paper, flight to quality by investors
Strong Market Volumes Through June Source: Thomson Financial
Emerging Credit Issues in Subprime Residential Mortgage Backed Securities Evident in Late 2006 Begin to Accelerate Rapidly growing subprime market in 2006 fueled by aggressive underwriting High combined loan-to-value ratios / piggyback seconds Higher number of loans with limited documentation Deterioration fueled by declines in home prices, rising interest rates, and lenders failing Losses will exceed the expectations inherent in our ratings, necessitating a total portfolio review and criteria / model changes Re-rated all 2006 and 2007 vintage subprime deals Over 250 transactions comprised of almost 4,000 tranches We have affirmed 88% (in $ volume) or 66% of the rated tranches A small portion of AAAs have been downgraded or put on Rating Watch Negative, mostly comprised of second-lien loans, some 2007 first liens
Extension of Subprime Weakness into Structured Products (CDOs, SIVs, and ABCP) and Corporates (Banks and Monolines) Downgrades of subprime RMBS have reverberated through the market as that collateral was prevalent in recent vintage CDOs, SIVs, and other market funded vehicles Credit concerns were exacerbated by the market disruption which created pricing dislocations Fitch reviewed all rated Structured Finance CDOs 431 transactions with current outstandings of US$ 300 billion 150 have been placed on Rating Watch Review to be concluded by mid-November, including projected downgrades of AAA tranches Fitch reviewed all ratings in Market Value Conduits, SIVs, and Asset Backed Commercial Paper A few downgrades, but we have a small presence in this market Losses reported at commercial banks and investment banks have merited select downgrades and renewed scrutiny of risk-management processes and appetites Fitch announced a review of the monoline insurance industry upon completion of the September 30 capital model
Significant Deterioration in Structured Finance Market Volumes Source: Inside Mortgage Finance US$ Billons
Worldwide CDO Issuance Source: Asset-Backed Alert US$ Billons
Volatility in ABS and CMBS Market Volumes US Securitized Asset Issuance US$ Billons Source: Inside Mortgage Finance
Resilient Demand for High Grade Corporates Record year (over US$ one trillion) for US investment grade bonds, the “flight to simplicity” Growing capital needs for financial institutions, stable economic environment, and contraction in commercial paper underlie the strong supply Growing demand from new emerging economies Continuing to invest in this business despite slowdown in structured finance Noninvestment grade issuance hurt by decline in CLO activity
Key Issues for 2008 Balancing the short term business impact against longer term challenges and opportunities Dichotomy between Structured and Corporates, US and the rest of the world Ever increasing demand for quality due to the complexity of the capital markets and market volatility Longer term opportunity to distinguish ourselves Reputational and regulatory challenges to the industry Market confidence in rating agencies has been shaken Numerous regulatory bodies are interested in “fixing” the credit problems Reacting without overreacting Organizational changes Introducing new products to fill market voids Acquisitions to complement the business
Regulatory Issues Credit Rating Agency Reform Act passed by US Congress in September 2006 Fitch was officially recognized as one of seven NRSROs under new guidelines in June of 2007 IOSCO (International Organization of Securities Commissioners) will release a report in late 2007 on compliance with their Code of Conduct Fundamentals, and in spring 2008 regarding issues specific to structured finance ratings Recent market turmoil has led to increased attention from securities regulators globally, the European Commission, the US Congress, and Certain US States’ Attorneys-General We remain open and constructive in the dialogue, eager to find solutions to help restore market confidence in ratings Greater regulation seems inevitable
Conclusion The entire organization has rallied around the urgency of the credit challenges, aiming to be timely and transparent with our research and ratings Visibility into the months ahead is limited We do expect that corporate ratings will continue on a growth trend Less sure about the timing and extent of structured markets recovery
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Algorithmics Introduction Algorithmics is a leading provider in the development and delivery of enterprise risk solutions that enable growth, innovation and the efficient use of risk capital. Financial organizations from around the world rely on our software, content, delivery and advisory services to make risk aware business decisions and meet regulatory requirements.
Algorithmics Highlights Notes: 1 1 Top 100 banks according to “The Banker” 101 New License Orders 390 Software Solution clients (22 new) 169 Content and Data clients (47 new) 72 1 of the world’s 100 largest financial institutions 724 professionals in 19 global offices
Algorithmics Revenue by Region (in millions of US$) 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % Change North America % Europe, Middle East & Africa % Latin America % Asia Pacific % TOTAL ALGORITHMICS 122.3*139.4* % * Includes inter-company revenue of $3.9 million
Algorithmics EBITDA and Operating Income (in millions of US$) 2005/2006 (Oct 05 – Sept 06) 2006/2007 (oct 06 - sept 07) % Change Revenue % EBITDA Profit sharing plan Depreciation Intangible assets amortization Recurring Operating Income * Includes inter-company revenue of $3.9 Million in and (*)(*)
Credit and Capital Solutions 125 clients (108 in 2006) Market Risk Solutions 161 clients (128 in 2006) Operational Risk Solutions 104 clients (89 in 2006) Collateral Management Solutions 70 clients (68 in 2006) Algorithmics Solution Achievements
Algorithmics Recognized Leadership 2007 Chartis Research: Credit Risk Management Systems World ’ s most complete Credit Risk Management solutions 2007 OpRisk & Compliance Magazine: Technology Rankings Algorithmics voted top for Regulation and Economic Capital Modelling 2007 Synergy Award for Innovation Recognized by the Canadian Federal Government, Department of Natural Sciences and Engineering for innovation in partnership with the University of Toronto 2007 – Awarded a patent for "System and Method for Trading Off Put and Call Values of a Portfolio" methodology 2007 – Awarded a patent for "System and Method for Trading Off Put and Call Values of a Portfolio" methodology. An innovative framework for ranking investment funds on a risk-adjusted basis Media and Analyst Recognition
Algorithmics Market Drivers Adoption of ‘risk aware’ business applications in financial services, coupled with increased risk awareness. Increasingly complex financial markets and products which require more sophisticated tools Regulation for banks (more countries adopting Basel II), asset managers and insurance companies (e.g. Solvency II)
Algorithmics Investment Focus Expanding sales and services to support revenue growth Establishing presence in new geographical markets Investing in managed service solutions for asset managers and hedge funds Developing broader risk solution for the insurance industry Continued focus on core solutions