PWLLAI 10 Jan 2007 1 HONG KONG STOCKMARKET OUTLOOK 2007 By Peter W L LAI.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Evolution and trends for the duty free & travel retail industry —————
Advertisements

Trade in Developing Countries 2/27/2012 Unit 2: Trade Policy.
Economic growth in developing Asian countries
1 FDI Confidence Index ® 2003 FDI Confidence Index ® The Global Business Policy Council Press Slides September 2003.
ISI Far East Things will never be the same again …
Economic Growth and the Wealth of Nations Chapter 16
Ilian Mihov Professor of Economics Novartis Chaired Professor of Management and the Environment Tel Aviv December 2009 New Alignments in the Global Economic.
Chapter 13 International Trade Patterns
1 Stock Market Liquidity and Country Fundamentals Ser-Huang Poon Michael Rockinger Konstantinos Stathopoulos.
TOURISM IS THE BIGGEST INDUSTRY IN THE WORLD! BIGGER THAN AUTOMOBILES, DEFENCE, AGRO AND MANUFACTURING.
The Double Dip Recession in Asia Real GDP Growth (Annual Percent Change) (est.)2006 (est.)2007.
The Natural Resources Paradox. The Natural Resources Paradox refers to the paradox that countries and regions with an abundance of natural resources,
Macau and the Asian MICE Industry MCEA Forum Outlook of the Asian MICE Industry and Macau’s Role and Positioning in this Development.
Andrew Sentence CBE Senior Economic Advisor, PwC ECONOMIC INSIGHT.
Figure 14.1 Economic Growth in the ADE/ASR model.
Investing in the UAE CH 10. Investing in the UAE Introduction Why Investing in Global Markets? 1. Additional investment opportunities 2. Growth potential.
Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation By Shelby and LOLA THE DESTROYER.
Craig James Chief Economist, CommSec, July 2011 The Australian & Global Economy ediscoveryconsulting.blogspot.com.
The Global Economic Environment
Copyright ©2001, South-Western College Publishing Contemporary Economics: An Applications Approach By Robert J. Carbaugh 1st Edition Chapter 10: Gross.
1 3 March Economic outlook Government Economist.
Indonesia and Global Economy Growth in Developed and Developing Countries Dr. Adrian Teja.
Chapter 6 The Political Environment I. Sovereignty - Nationalism II. Embargoes and Trade Sanctions III. Export Controls IV. Political Risk - Types -
The Rise of China & India. Rapid Economic Growth in China Economic Growth rates of 9.5% are expected to continue Economic Growth rates of 9.5% are expected.
1 CASA ASIA Economic Congress 2004 ‘The Recovery of the Japanese Economy and Its Influence in Asia’ November, 2004 Takashi FUKAYA.
PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006.
Regional Financial Co-operation: Initiation and Way Forward Stephen Yan Leung CHEUNG City University of Hong Kong.
PRT 2008 Lecture 11. International agricultural trade Total merchandise trade Total merchandise trade Malaysia trade performance ( ) Malaysia.
Private Banking in Asia and the Philippines 5 October 2012 InterContinental Manila.
Globalization Pg Globalization Globalization – the process by which national economies, politics, cultures, and societies become integrated with.
A Global Economic and Market Outlook November 2012 Presented by Dr Chris Caton.
Giordano International Limited (Stock code: 709) May 22, 2008 (Thursday) 2008 First Quarter Results.
PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE June 2006.
Stages of Economic Development
Asian Economic Overview. Dave Perrett Regional Strategist PPM Asia 15th Nov, 2000.
The Global Economic Environment The Coming Boom Wealthy Industrial Countries Developing Countries East Asia South Asia Latin America
Why Foreign Investors are Smarter than Indian Investors? Samir Arora Helios Capital Management December 2010.
The Global Economic Environment Global Marketing.
8 - 1 Chapter 8: Location Strategies Outline  The Strategic Importance of Location  Factors That Affect Location Decisions  Labor Productivity.
Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Asian Century? Pacific Asia’s pre-1997 high growth.
Why Are Some Nations Wealthy?
Global Impact Awards Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada China France Germany Greece Hungary India Indonesia Israel Italy Japan Korea Malaysia.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE LECTURE 1: The World of International Economics.
SAUDI ARABIA THE BUSINESS GATEWAY TO THE MIDDLE EAST October 2015
Energy Demand Outlook by Mohamed Ariff Based on Data from The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
The United States The Economy. What is GDP ? Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The total market (or dollar) value of all final goods and services produced.
Overview of the Singapore Economy 2000 –GDP = US$92 bil (0.9% of US economy) –Per Capita GNP = US$24,700 (ranked 19th in the world)
MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY SINGAPORE’S ECONOMIC PLANNING.
OPEN FOR BUSINESS An introduction to New Zealand August 2014.
An Economic and Business Outlook October 2011 Presented by Dr Chris Caton.
Assessment Of The Global Construction Market And Growth Trends In Global Economy, 2021 Published: Apr 2017 Single User PDF: US$ 4950 Order this report.
Manufacturing in Nigeria: Opportunities for Investment
Research Center For China-EU Economic Cooperation (CCEEC), UIBE
Global Manufacturing – India
Part 3 The relative importance of Manufacturing to Different Countries is changing. What are NICs? Who are/were the Asian Tigers? China’s changing role.
Relative Size and Wealth of the Australian Market
The Most Visited Countries
Japan Recovers How did Japan recover from the ruins of World War II?
The World Market.
Economic Crisis International Finance April 28, 2009.
Asian Development Bank
Citi Virtual Card Accounts – Continued Global Expansion
Status of EQ-5D-5L Valuation Using Standardized Valuation Methodology
Asian Tigers, NICs, and BRICS
Fertility Rates.
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)

What are the lead indicators telling us
Economic Issues Week 2-6: Part 1
Presentation transcript:

PWLLAI 10 Jan HONG KONG STOCKMARKET OUTLOOK 2007 By Peter W L LAI

PWLLAI 10 Jan

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 First 10 biggest world stock market capitalization and PE Market CapPEYTD chanage As of 13 Nov 2006US$bnx% United States17, Japan4, United Kingdom3, France2, Hong Kong1, Germany1, Canada1, Switzerland1, Italy1, Spain

PWLLAI 10 Jan First 10 biggest world stock market capitalization and growth As of 30 Dec 2006US$bn% Market Cap2006 performance United States17, Japan4,873(1.6) United Kingdom3, France2, Hong Kong2, Germany1, Canada1, Switzerland1, Italy1, Spain

PWLLAI 10 Jan Asian individual stock market capitalization and PE Market CapPEYTD chanage As of 13 Nov 2006US$bnx% Japan4, Hong Kong1, South Korea India China Taiwan Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia

PWLLAI 10 Jan First 10 biggest Asian stock market capitalization and growth As of 30 DecUS$bn% Market Cap2006 performance Japan4,873(1.6) Hong Kong2, China India South Korea Taiwan Singapore Malaysia Thailand

PWLLAI 10 Jan Economy Outlook I INTERNAL: Minimum intervention/maximum support from HKSAR Remain world’s most free city (for 15 years from 1991) Positive and Encouraging economic figures --improving job market, income, birth rate……. Abundant inflow of fund --more IPOs….. Positive impact from strong economic growth of China  ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO BOOM

PWLLAI 10 Jan Economy Outlook II REGIONAL China Economic Policy Reform – money supply/RMB re-valuation Stock reforms Potential tax reforms Industrial reform – oil sector/telecom sector Policies to Hong Kong -more open and supportive S E Asian countries -political stability -economic development (competitors?)

PWLLAI 10 Jan Economy Outlook III GLOBAL: US Economy -- interest rate drop (?) -- sustain healthy growth Oil price – drop (?) Political stability – US Vs Terrorists Relations among big countries -- US, Russia, China, Euro, Middle East (Iraq/Israel/Iran…….)

PWLLAI 10 Jan Risks Liquidity Flows Outflow of fund Large scale profit-taking Epidemic Diseases Natural Forces Tsunami/Earthquake/Typhoon Terrorists Attacks

PWLLAI 10 Jan CONCLUSION 1) INTERNAL GOOD 2) REGIONAL STABLE 3) GLOBAL UNCERTAIN UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES  POSITIVE OUTLOOK IN HONG KONG ECONOMY Stock market forecast: --liquidity driven --news oriented --sentimentally driven  CHOPPY

PWLLAI 10 Jan RECOMMENDATIONS Property Cheung Kong (1) Sun Hung Kai (16) New World (17) Telecommunications China Tel (728) Conglomerates Hutchison (13) Bank China Construction Bank (939) Bank of Communications (3328)

PWLLAI 10 Jan Hotels -Jinjiang (2006) -Regal (78) China Retailers -Mengniu Dairy (2319) Olympic Concept -Li Ning (2331) -Win Hanverky (3322) Pharmaceutical -Guangzhou Phar (874) -Tong Ren Tang (8069) Automobile - Denway (203)