Prepare For The Worst Hope For The Best

Potential and somewhat probable worst case disasters include: Epidemics Epidemics Terrorism Terrorism Tsunamis Tsunamis Earthquakes Earthquakes Hurricanes Hurricanes Flash Floods Flash Floods Dam Failures Dam Failures

Science Advisory Working Group Provide information relevant to improvements in tsunami hazard mitigation Provide information relevant to improvements in tsunami hazard mitigation

Topic For The Day REVISIONS TO EXISTING INUNDATION ZONES

Data Used For Existing Zones 1946 Aleutians 1946 Aleutians 1952 Kamchatka 1952 Kamchatka 1957 Aleutians 1957 Aleutians 1960 Chile 1960 Chile 1964 Alaska 1964 Alaska

Figure 1

Question: Are existing zones adequate?

Keys To An Answer: Historical Data Historical Data Modeling Modeling

TABLE 1 Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*

TABLE 1 (Cont.) Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*

Conclusion Bays, streambeds, valleys, low lying areas, and other inland waterways may be especially dangerous

Figure 2

TABLE 2 Comparative Runup Values in Feet for Northern Facing Coastlines in the Hawaiian Islands for Major Tsunamis Originating in the North Pacific*

Implications For Modeling Model everywhere? Model everywhere? Model many places? Model many places? Model at all? Model at all?

TABLE 3 Maximum Reported Runups of 15 or More Meters Near the Source Locations of Large Earthquakes Along Margins of the Pacific, and Maximum Runups in the Hawaiian Islands for Those Tsunamis*

Figure 3

Conclusion WE NEED TO MODEL

What Model? Fai Fai Mader Mader MOST MOST Kowalik Kowalik Japan Japan Others Others

Essential Requirements Curved Earth Curved Earth Detailed Bathymetry Detailed Bathymetry Reflections Reflections Refractions Refractions Multiple Waves Multiple Waves Waves on Waves Waves on Waves Inflow & Outflow Inflow & Outflow Multiple Sources Multiple Sources Variable Friction Variable Friction Time Factors Time Factors

Modeling Limitations Earthquake Source Tsunami Source

Reasonable Worst Case Ocean Surface Displacement in the Source Area

Table 4

Figure 4

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Figure 8

Kowalik et al. Off-Shore Wave Heights Location Wave Height (meters) Maximum Measured Runups* (meters) Indonesia , 48.9, 35.7, 34.9 Thailand Sri Lanka E. Africa * NGDC Data

TABLE 3 Maximum Reported Runups of 15 or More Meters Near the Source Locations of Large Earthquakes Along Margins of the Pacific, and Maximum Runups in the Hawaiian Islands for Those Tsunamis*

Conclusion Reasonable worst case source area sea surface displacement parameters Length:1000 km Width:200 km Wave Height To Ocean:15 m Wave Height To Land:15 m Period:15 to 30 minutes

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