Weather Forecasting This chapter discusses: 1.Various weather forecasting methods, their tools, and forecasting accuracy and skill 2.Images for the forecasting of 6 cities

Analysis to Prognosis Figure 14.1A Figure 14.1B

Three important forecasting steps are: 1) Assess the present state, called the analysis, by plotting 6 hourly surface and 12 hourly sounding data 1) Assess the present state, called the analysis, by plotting 6 hourly surface and 12 hourly sounding data 2) Predict a future state by either running a computer model of weather changes or using some other forecast method. 3) Interpret the model results, called a prognostic chart, given forecasting experience Here are two different model 500 mb progs. Here are two different model 500 mb progs.

Viewing Data with AWIPS Figure 14.2 Viewing weather images, overlays, and graphs in multiple windows is facilitated with the National Weather Service's Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), which gathers data from the Automated Surface Observing System among other sources.

WSR-88D Doppler Radar Weather Surveillance Radar Doppler, also known as next generation radar (NEXRAD), detects severe weather size, movement, and intensity. Data received by the NEXRAD unit are processed by algorithms to assist the forecaster in weather interpretation. Figure 14.3

Meteogram Display Predicted trends in several weather variables are plotted for a 60 hour period on a meteogram. Patterns in variable response, such as rising pressure and a stop in precipitation, are readily observed. Figure 14.4

Vertical Sounding Profile Figure 14.5 Radiosonde instruments attached to pilot balloons are launched twice daily to profile weather variables with height. These January 14, 1999 data show winds veering from easterly at the surface to southwesterly aloft that may change the freezing rain in the saturated lower atmosphere to non- freezing rain.

Probability Forecasts Figure 14.6 Climate records, often 30 years of data, are used to generate probability forecasts for a given event. In this case, most of Texas has a less than 5% chance of snow on December 25th, while northern Minnesota has had snow on that date for each of the past 30 years.

Weather Forecasting Methods Figure 14.7

Several methods are used to forecast weather, and include: 1) Persistence - the future will be like the present 1) Persistence - the future will be like the present 2) Trend - the future will be like upwind weather 3) Analogue - the future will be like weather that historically occurred when similar conditions were present In this figure, the forecasting method is called weather types, which is a type of long range analogue forecast.

Weekly & Monthly Forecasts Figure 14.8A Stationary weather systems often allow for trend based extended weather forecasts, while multiple runs of numerical weather models, known as ensemble forecasts, allow for 30 to 90 day outlooks. Figure 14.8B

Forecasting with Surface Charts Figure 14.9 Many of the following figures analyze and predict weather for 6 U.S. cities. This simplified 6 AM Tuesday surface weather map is useful for short time interval predictions of fronts and associated weather.

Surface Chart Predictions 3-hour pressure tendencies plotted on isallobar maps help predict the movement of highs and lows and indicate how rapidly pressure systems are changing. Lows tend to move toward the region of greatest pressure fall, while highs move toward the region of greatest rise. The low from the previous map will likely move to the NE, while the high will move to the SE. Figure 14.10

Upper Level Charts Upper level winds, particularly those at 5500 m, which is a common elevation for the 500 mb surface, often guide the path of surface pressure systems. These upper level winds, however, travel at nearly twice the speed as the surface systems. Here again, we see the low will head to the NE, while the high will head SE. Figure 14.11

Observed Movement of Fronts Figure Surface weather observations from 6 PM Tuesday and 6 AM Wednesday show how the fronts, pressure systems, and precipitation have moved as predicted.

Surface Weather for 6 AM Wednesday Figure 14.13

Surface Weather for 4 PM Sunday Figure 14.14

500 mb Chart for 4 PM Sunday Figure 14.15

Computer Drawn 12, 24, &36 hr Progs Figure 14.16

Surface Weather Map for 4 AM Sunday Figure 14.17

500 mb Chart for 4 AM Sunday Figure 14.18

Infrared Satellite Image for 6: 45 AM Monday Figure 14.19

Surface Weather Map for 4 AM Monday Figure 14.20

Visible Satellite Image for 9 AM Tuesday Figure 14.21