Making better reinsurance decisions… Measuring seismic risk in Turkey: Latest modelling techniques Karl Jones June 3, 2003 ©Copyright 2003 Willis Limited.

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Presentation transcript:

Making better reinsurance decisions… Measuring seismic risk in Turkey: Latest modelling techniques Karl Jones June 3, 2003 ©Copyright 2003 Willis Limited all rights reserved.

Making better reinsurance decisions… The Turkish Catastrophe Management System (TCMS) Developed under the Turkish Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Programme (TEFER) Produced earthquake and flood risk modeling for the whole of Turkey at ilçe (district) resolution Implemented as Turkish Catastrophe Management System (TCMS) icMap Earthquake generator

Making better reinsurance decisions… 52 staff from 14 organisations, including the leading experts on Turkish earthquake risk Prof. Aydinoglu, Prof. Erdik & co. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University Prof. Barka and Prof. Ansal, Istanbul Technical University Prof. Gülkan and Asst. Prof. Selçuk, Middle Eastern Technical University General Directorate of Disaster Affairs State Institute of Statistics Dr Julian Bommer & co., Imperial College Dr Spence & co., Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd Dr Acar, Zemcka Ltd Assoc. Prof. Ulusay, Hacettepe University Imagins-TED, Istanbul Oracle Corporation Limited

Making better reinsurance decisions… Transparent design process subject to academic and peer review Design workshop Technical design documents and review Research and data collection Model and systems development Testing and review Technical report and model implementation Expert review Academic paper for Journal of Seismology - peer reviewed Seismic source zone map

Making better reinsurance decisions… Synthetic earthquake catalogue Over 1,000 earthquake events with magnitude > 5.5

Making better reinsurance decisions… TCMS uses the latest earthquake modelling developments Spectral displacement (HAZUS) Non-linear soil amplification Explicit use of earthquake duration Projected plane earthquake triggers 14 Turkish residential building types with fragility curves based on Turkish data Source: CAR

Making better reinsurance decisions… Projected plane earthquake triggers Fault rupture plane Dip angle Surface rupture Strike angle N Plan view Using projected plane source Point sourceLine source Projected plane source Ground surface Hypocentre (focus) Epicentre

Making better reinsurance decisions… For 14 residential building types in 900 geocodes, a unique spectral displacement value was calculated ICMP TM Hazard database magnitude, M duration, D distance, d geocode, x Earthquake generator

Making better reinsurance decisions… Source: CAR Fragility curves based on Turkish data: Low-rise RC poor seismic design

Making better reinsurance decisions… Fragility curves based on Turkish data: Mid-rise RC buildings TC1MP Poor seismic design TC1MG Good seismic design TC1MRF Retrofitted Source: CAR Fragility curves: mid-rise RC buildings, TC1M

Making better reinsurance decisions… Buildings database - the ‘portfolio’ Model that represents Turkish building stock Analysis at district and sub-district State Institute of Statistics Buildings data, census data Linked to 14 building types in model “Earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do”

Making better reinsurance decisions… Turkey Catastrophe Management System (TCMS) A market-leading risk assessment system for Turkey Coverage: countrywide, modelled at district level Assessing the effect of earthquakes for entire country  User-defined hypothetical earthquake scenario generated using icMap TM earthquake generator  Re-runs of historical events  Event based probabilistic loss estimation using the synthetic earthquake catalogue Use of Graphical User Interface (GUI) for visualisation Mapping functionality Embedded with ICMP TM - Willis’ proprietary loss calculation engine

Making better reinsurance decisions… Input - Hazard intensities Earthquake generator

Making better reinsurance decisions… Input - Portfolio data Data contains: Geocode Policy count Sum insured Building type Mapping portfolio data using icMap TM

Making better reinsurance decisions… Output - Loss by geocode

Making better reinsurance decisions… Output - Loss exceedance curve

Making better reinsurance decisions… Major earthquake events in the Sea of Marmara region since 1500 according to Parsons et al. (2000)

Making better reinsurance decisions… Magnitudes of major historical earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara

Making better reinsurance decisions… Magnitudes of major historical earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara

Making better reinsurance decisions… Reduced risk in Marmara sea?