Arms conversion for a low carbon economy Dr Stuart Parkinson

Introduction There has long been pressure for UK to adopt less aggressive foreign/ military policies and cut back on military industry 1970s/80s arms conversion initiatives not very successful – e.g. proposals to convert Lucas Aerospace and Barrow shipyards to renewable and other civilian technologies End of Cold War led to some shift in 1990s

UK remains major military spender/ exporter UK military budget is world’s 4 th largest – Up 21% since 1999 UK is home to 2 nd largest arms company UK is 5 th largest arms exporter UK spending per person is 2.5 times that of Russia and 17 times that of China UK spending per person/ per unit GDP is much larger than EU average

Military v climate spending Some example figures from UK (2008): – Sector Military equipment budget: £13.4bn Renewable energy subsidies: <£1.0bn – Research & development (publicly funded) Military: £2,220m Renewable energy: £66m – Technology One eurofighter typhoon costs ~£90m For this cost, a 90 MW wind farm could be built

Current major UK military procurement NumberEstimated procurement cost Typhoon fighter aircraft232£21 bn Trident replacement (including submarines, nuclear warheads & infrastructure) -£15-20 bn Aircraft supercarriers (including aircraft) 2£12-14 bn FSTA tanker aircraft14£13 bn FRES armoured vehicles3,500£6 bn Type-45 destroyers6£3.6 bn Astute submarines3£3.5 bn Total: at least £74 billion

But... “How can it be that it takes 20 years to buy a ship, or aircraft, or tank? Why does it always seem to cost at least twice what was thought? Even worse, at the end of the wait, why does it never quite seem to do what it was supposed to?” Ministry of Defence report (leaked to The Times, 24 August 2009)

Lifetime cost estimates Trident replacement – Including 3-4 submarines, missiles, warheads, infrastructure, operation (30y) – About £97 bn Aircraft supercarriers – Including 2 carriers, fighter aircraft, surveillance aircraft, operation (50y) – At least £31 bn

Military v civilian job creation Military industry is capital-intensive – Expensive – Low job creation for investment – Highly specialised jobs – High use of materials and energy Civilian sectors – Generally more labour-intensive, including renewable energy, energy efficiency and public transport sectors

Job creation potential SectorNumber of jobs created Number of jobs relative to defence/ military spending Defence/ Military8,555- Tax cuts10,779+26% Health care12,883+50% Education17, % Public transport19, % House construction & efficiency improvements 12,804+50% Overall Employment Effects of Spending $1 Billion for Alternative Spending Targets in U.S. Economy, 2005 Source: University of Massachusetts (2007)

Resistance to change Highly specialised industrial workforce Committed to standards and procedures required by Ministry of Defence Working to specific technical requirements which are not generally applicable to other industrial areas of work Jobs directly and indirectly dependent on government policy

Job dependency Jobs directly dependent on MoD equipment spending – Only approx. 2% of manufacturing sector; 0.3% of total UK employment – Most jobs in regions of high employment (e.g. South East England) – Regional development assistance can be directed to areas which are more vulnerable to job losses, e.g. Barrow (Cumbria)

Past shifts from military to civilian industry in UK Post-conflict demobilisation – e.g. After World Wars Closure of (US) military bases As Cold War drew to a close – Jobs in military/defence sector fell from 625,000 in 1985/86 to 410,000 in 1995/96 Similar shift could take place now, with decommissioning (e.g. Trident) providing some jobs during the transition period

Potential job creation in UK from arms conversion StudyPolicy changeInitial job lossEventual job creation York University (2001) Cut arms exports by 50% 49,00067,000 BASIC (2007) – scenario 1 Cancel aircraft super-carriers 20,00030,000 BASIC (2007) – scenario 2 Cancel Trident replacement 65,000105,000

Conclusions Spending on military sector is considerably higher than climate sector Climate (and other civilian) sectors have much greater job creation potential than military With political will and careful planning, a major shift could be achieved which would inject tens of billions into the low carbon economy