June 2014 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region Agenda June 19, 2014 Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO 09:30-10:30 Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (JJA) Forecast – El nino Update FAO, WFP, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, ACF, UNICEF, UNHCR ICPAC 10:30 -11:30 Presentation: Situation and Response Analysis Framework: A new approach to Contingency Planning. Response Analysis Subgroup

June 2014 CHANGING ROLES OF THE FOOD SECURITY & NUTRITION WORKING GROUP The FSNWG started around 2002 as an informal meeting of food security practioneers. In 2006, the FSNWG became part of Inter-Agency Working Group FSNWG has evolved since then and currently include regional government, donor, and non-government and academic bodies. With more recent changes within East and Central Africa, the FSNWG needs to be realigned with the new developments, such as the Resilience agenda and doing business differently. Once the functions and governance structure of the FSNWG is endorsed by IGAD and FSNWG members, the TORs for the FSNWG will be revised in line with the new changes.

June 2014 Current FSNWG Functions June 2014 FSNWG Early Warning / Monitoring Forum & Debate Subgroups Strategic Linkages

June 2014 FSNWG Proposed Expanded Functions June 2014 FSNWG Early Warning – linking to GHACOF /Food and Nutrition Security monitoring Information sharing and Management Identification of Research gaps that will enrich food and nutrition understanding Debate and inform food and nutrition security policy issues that are relevant to IGAD and member states Contribute to information on the Resilience Agenda and linking to the IDDRISI Analysis of cross border issues on food and nutrition security that are of benefit to the region & member states Regional IPC Analysis

June 2014 FSNWG Proposed Expanded Functions - Responsible for: Attending meetings contributing to information used in food and nutrition updates Participate in research to fill in identified Two annual meetings involving member states presentations will be held. Plenary sessions on food security will be bimonthly Ad-hoc meetings will be held as necessary and also for specific thematic topics -Membership: Open to interested NGOs, Private Sector, UN agencies, Donors FSNWG Plenary - Responsible for: Organizing meetings through the chair Taking minutes for meetings Maintaining and managing the FSNWG data and websites Sharing information with members -What Constitute the Secretariat Secretariat could either be funded by agencies; IGAD, etc; OR Agencies rotate on an annual basis Secretariat - Responsible for: Technical inputs for the food and nutrition situation Drafting the FSNWG annual work plan and strategy Reviewing the performance of the FSNWG Give direction to the Secretariat Help in organizing meetings and events for the FSNWG Members to include: UN agencies providing technical contributions to regional food and nutrition situation NGOS providing technical inputs Chair (focal persons) of the FSNWG working groups Chair (Focal persons) of the Food and Nutrition Sector/Working Group of member states IGAD relevant sector Technical Steering Committee - Responsible for: Policy direction Governance Resource mobilization - Members to include: IGAD preferred the ES or nominated Senior Official Selected relevant Heads of UN agencies Heads of one or two NGOs A Country Office selected by the member states Chair and Co chair of the FSNWG are the Secretariat A Donor funding the FSNWG will be coopted into the Committee Management Steering Committee - IGAD (The sector within IGAD to be decided by the ES) - Co-Chair (to be Selected from Agencies that are represented in the Technical Steering Committee) Chair

June 2014 PROPOSED FSNWG REFORM TIMELINE Consultation with IGAD secretariat- IDDRSI unit, member states and participating country. July-August Consultation with FSNWG members on the FSNWG reforms - August Finalizing TOR for the FSNWG August- Sept. Launch of the new look FSNWG - Sept

June 2014 FSNWG Proposed Expanded Functions WE NEED YOUR FEEDBACK

June 2014 Current Conditions: Regional Highlights Many regions are in stressed condition and specific areas are under crisis or emergency (CAR/DRC/South Sudan and part of Afar Region of Ethiopia). Some areas are at risk of further deterioration (South Sudan, CAR, Sudan)

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Without urgent action, famine is possible in localized sub ‐ county of Jonglei and Unity States during the coming 4 months South Sudan Impacts of conflict deepening for displaced populations and host communities, who are under severe food stress, especially in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile States. About 3.5 million people require humanitarian assistance 2.4 million people face Crisis (IPC Phase 3),1.1 million people face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity. Current EMOP targets1.3 million. About 50 percent of the population in Crisis and 70 percent of in Emergency are located in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile States. Over 1.3 million people have been displaced, 1.04 million are displaced internally and about 367,000 are in Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan and Kenya. Prevalence of acute malnutrition at emergency levels (15-30%) in Jonglei (except Pochalla county), Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Upper Nile. Lakes, Unity, and Warrap States are experiencing crisis levels of acute malnutrition (10-15%). Food prices in conflict areas exceptionally high and volatile. Sorghum prices up to three times higher than in other regional markets. Markets have been disrupted and access is impeded. Agricultural activities disrupted by limited access to production inputs, loss of capital, constrained access to farms/displacements. Households have reduced access to key food and income sources (firewood/charcoal, agriculture labor). Flooding likely to worsen situation for the IDPs and residents in Northern BEG, Lakes, Warrap, Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile. Risk of famine in Mayendit, Koch, Panyijar, and Leer Counties in Unity; Ayod, Duk, Uror, and Nyirol counties in Jonglei and Baliet and Panyikang in Upper Nile States.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Food insecurity worsens with record-high cereal prices and intensified conflict that is likely to continue (Tribal clashes and between SAF and SPLM-N) Sudan About 5 million people are acutely food insecure in Sudan, a 10 percent increase since April, due to conflict, restricted trade, constrained access to humanitarian assistance, reduced access to income sources‘, low production and high food prices. Continued conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile States has triggered additional displacements of up to 83,500 people. Majority of IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas are Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4). Another 20,000 South Sudanese refugees arrived in Sudan in April and May. Since the conflict began in December 2013, an estimated 80,000 people have crossed the border into Sudan to White Nile, Khartoum, and South Kordofan States. State authorities in South and East Darfur states confirmed large food deficits of 228,000 tons and 175,000 tons, respectively, due to last year’s poor harvest. Subsequently, staple food prices are rising and are atypically high - sorghum prices are over 50 percent higher than last year and up to 130 percent higher than the five-year average. Current assistance unlikely to cover food deficits; and FEWS NET expects significant food consumption gaps in North, East and South Darfur states. ToTs between sheep and sorghum have declined by up to 40 percent due to high sorghum prices which are highest in El Fasher, Nyala, Omdurman, El Damer and El Obeid markets.. High levels of chronic food insecurity in Red Sea, Kassala, North Kordofan and White Nile States are compounded by high food prices and declining macroeconomic indicators,

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Somalia Conflict, high food prices, restricted humanitarian assistance, constrained labor opportunities and mediocre rains, accentuating food insecurity in the riverine and agropastoral livelihood zones. Many households in conflict affected urban areas (Buloburte, Jowhar, Qoryoley and Hudur), coastal pastoral areas in central and northeast regions and agropastoral (Middle Juba) are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Food security outcomes for poor households in conflict- affected areas in the Shabelle Valley including in Qoryoley and Jowhar Districts, parts of Galgaduud, northern Gedo, Bakool, and parts of Hiraan are deteriorating due to high food prices and unusually low access to labor opportunities. Trade restrictions in conflict-affected areas are increasing cereal prices reducing food access for poor households. Food insecurity is accentuating in the agropastoral areas in Gedo, Hiran and Togdher regions due to poor crop and rangeland development and limited milk availability after livestock migrated. Conflict is expected to intensify, affecting trade, population movement and humanitarian assistance among pastoralists in Bari, Central, Sanag and Gedo. An estimated 857,000 people are projected to remain acutely food insecure through June Food security is deteriorating in the South due to intensified conflict

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Karamoja food security further deteriorates as the lean season started earlier following below average harvest from the last season. Uganda Key areas of concern are the Central Sorghum and Livestock and Western mixed crop farming livelihood zone in Karamoja. Consistent low and erratic rainfall has delayed crop development, reduced livestock productivity and constrained labor availability in the Kaabong, Moroto, and Kotido Districts in Karamoja region. The lean season will be prolonged beyond July, and the current Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) could deteriorate further to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by the end of July, without assistance. Karamoja is Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) but only with the presence of humanitarian assistance. Without this assistance, they would most likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). About 40 percent of the population is depending on humanitarian assistance, higher by 20 percent in a normal year. The proportion of household food expenditure is high by percent compared to 40 percent in a normal year. Reduced agricultural labor income has lowered purchasing capacities constraining food access. Poor households will likely be unable to fully meet food needs through July, which if not met by food assistance may result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Over 108,000 South Sudan refugees have arrived into Northern Ugandan districts of Arua, Adjumani and Kiryandongo since start of the conflict.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Emergency situation in North – East of the Country Djibouti Poor pastoralists in the Southeast Pastoral Borderside livelihood zone, Obock Region, and Northwest Pastoral livelihood zone are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Obock region is worst – affected. A 50 percent reduction in humanitarian assistance during May, below average March to May Diraac/Sugum rains, and constrained labor opportunities have accelerated the decline in household food security. Less than 30 percent of the population that was targeted prior to June 2013 has access to humanitarian assistance. Poor households are unable access food needs without adopting irreversible coping strategies, including increased charcoal production. Rates of child malnutrition had surpassed WHO’s emergency thresholds as early as December 2013, in most regions, the worst being Obock.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Ethiopia Poor and very poor households exhausted their stocks earlier than normal, due to a poor Meher harvest in eastern, marginal, agricultural areas in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, and in the lowlands in East and West Hararghe Zone in Oromia Region. Poor and very poor households remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). About average February to May cumulative rainfall is likely to support a near average Belg harvest from June to August, improving food availability in Belg-growing areas. These areas in Amhara Region are expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from July. The March to May Sugum rains below normal in Dalul, Berhale, Erebti, Afedera, Elidar, Bidu, and Kurri Woredas in northeastern Afar Region. Pasture, browse, and severe water shortages are causing abnormally low livestock productivity, reducing household income and food access. Poor households in these areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). March to May rains have been below average in southern Somali and Borena Zone in southern Oromia. This is likely to lead to early depletion of pasture and water, reducing livestock production and productivity. Poor households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) but only with continued humanitarian assistance. Desert locusts have caused limited damage to crops and rangelands in northern Somali and eastern and central Oromia. With control measures underway and anticipated to continue, the infestation is not likely to significantly damage Belg crops or forage availability. Continued influx of South Sudanese refugees particularly in Gambella.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Kenya An estimated 1.3 million people in acute food insecurity, in the southeastern, agropastoral, pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas, with majority of the population in these regions remaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Most pastoralists remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2); except Loiyangalani and North Horr in Marsabit, and Kaaling, Lapur and Loima in Turkana in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Severe deterioration in the agro pastoral areas of Baringo, Narok, West Pokot, Laikipia and Kajiado), currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2 with likelihood of localized areas moving into crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July Slower than normal development of maize in the surplus- producing Rift Valley and western highlands will likely result in average to below average harvest. Likely delayed harvesting may contribute to food prices remaining elevated longer than normal hence constraining household food access. Food insecurity declining in conflict-affected pastoral areas of Wajir, Mandera, Moyale, Garissa, Marsabit, in addition to heightened food prices, reduced milk availability and below average seasonal rains. About 1.3 million people remain acutely food insecure in the southeastern, pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Stressed food security outcomes during the peak of the lean season. Rwanda Poor households in the Lake Kivu Coffee livelihood zone and the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming zone are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through June. Rainfall deficits are negatively affecting crops like beans, maize, soybeans, wheat, and peas which are currently at grain filling stages. Remote sensing and field reports suggest atypical dryness in many areas of the country which has negatively affected vegetation and crop performance. Poor households depleted stocks from own production one month early this year, becoming market dependent earlier than normal and have difficulties covering food requirements. Households in these areas resort to coping strategies such as atypical labor migration and sale of livestock, to meet essential food and non-food needs,. However, food security outcomes are expected to improve in June, when Season B harvests are available. Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Disease is threatening production of bananas and has been declared a national threat by the Rwanda Agricultural Board

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Tensions over 2015 election preparations continued. Risk of reviving ethnic demons. Burundi Poor households in the Plateaux Humides and Dépression de l’Est livelihood zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as Season B harvests become available. Rainfall deficits were observed over the last 30 days during the March to May Season B. Rainfall deficits are likely to reduce overall harvests. Prices are higher than average in many markets especially for beans, cassava flour and sweet potatoes, which are between 13 and 41 percent higher than the five-year average. Below-average Season B harvests will likely put further upward pressure on staple food prices, as the harvest will be exhausted earlier than usual. Poor households have very limited assets and few labor opportunities, and are particularly vulnerable to price variability and have a lower capacity to respond to shocks. Households in the Plateaux Humides livelihood zone reported reducing non-food expenditures on agriculture inputs, healthcare and education. Atypical migration from Kirundo Province to Bugesera District has been recently reported, due to food shortages.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Tanzania With access to food from markets and from recent harvests, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) is expected from June to September in most areas. However, localized pockets of food insecurity are likely in Dodoma, Mwanza, and Mara Regions following below normal March to May rainfall which will likely reduce the size of the Masika harvest. Maize and rice prices will likely continue to be stable due to adequate availability of stocks 2013 harvests and likely average to above-average production from the Msimu harvest from May to July. There is increasing demand for maize from Kenya, likely leading to higher prices in some border areas. Adequate moisture in the unimodal areas and above-normal rainfall received in most bimodal areas has allowed pasture regeneration, and the rains have fully recharged water points for livestock. Stable food prices across the Country ensure food access for poor households.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights CAR IPC May 2014, FAO Insecurity and tensions exacerbate food insecurity particularly in the northwest region of the country (IPC Phase 4). Country facing acute and complex emergency esp. in conflict affected areas. Performance of most economic sectors have declined since 2012 with implications on income generation. Food security situation has deteriorated with the beginning of the lean season. 1.7 million are in humanitarian phases (3 and 4), they were in those phases in November 2013 the number of people acutely food insecure has likely sharply increased. Access to food is curtailed by widespread displacement, depletion of household food stocks, destruction of livelihoods and loss of productive assets, inability to raise income, rising food prices, market disruption or limited access to markets.

June 2014 Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Conflicts a major driver of food insecurity in the country. DRC FEWSNET, IPC, FAO FEWSNET Prices of staples were stable or lower in February than in January. Conflict and displacement along the border with CAR, and armed groups in the Kivu region continue to be of concern and cause of food insecurity. Chronic food insecurity in some Provinces in the west. Poor and borderline consumption common among rural communities Food production in 2013 was at average levels. The number of people in acute food insecurity and livelihood crisis (IPC phases 3 and 4) estimated at 6.7 million (Dec 2013). Nutrition crisis in the west in Mitwaba: lives characterized by food distress (90.7 percent of households affected by food insecurity) and a nutritional emergency (21.6 percent of children six to 59 months prevalence of global acute malnutrition).

June 2014 Population in Crisis and Emergency - June 2014 Country Population in IPC Phase 3 & 4 Burundi78,948 Rwanda260,650 CAR1,700,000 Djibouti120,000 DRC6,700,000 Ethiopia2,736,490 Kenya1,300,000 Somalia870,000 South Sudan3,500,000 Sudan 5,000,000 Uganda560,000 Tanzania50,000 Total 22,876,088 Table:

June 2014 Regional Food Security Outlook Key Areas of Concern: South Sudan – Famine (IPC Phase 5) outcomes likely in in localized areas of Unity and Jonglei States during the June-August 2014 period, in the absence of humanitarian assistance. Sudan – Emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely to persist in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, for at least 40 percent of IDPs and host communities, through September. Somalia – southern and central agropastoral and riverine areas, due to conflict, combined with restricted trade, heightened food prices, constrained humanitarian assistance and erratic Gu rains in some parts. Ethiopia – Poor households in northeastern Tigray and in the Tekeze River catchment; and pastoralists in northeastern Afar, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through September. Djibouti – Obock region where humanitarian access is restricted, including halving of food rations, coupled with exceptionally low household livestock holdings (less than one TLU) negating food access.

June 2014 Nutrition Update Kenya Situation analysis: Case load map to be updated in June following completion of several surveys Nutrition surveys completed in Garissa, Turkana, Samburu. Findings awaiting validation. Preliminary findings indicate deterioration of nutrition situation On going surveys include West Pokot, Baringo, Wajir and Mandera counties Planning for LRA has begun Sector provided support to NDMA in the roll out of new EWS on nutrition indicators to enhance component of the same KDHS during training and actual field work with focus on anthropometric measurements Other updates Annual Work plan being finalized. Nutrition website approved by NTF to go live. Comments to be sent to About 1.3 million people remain acutely food insecure in the southeastern, pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas. June 2014

Treatment of Acute Malnutrition Low acute malnutrition treatment coverage due to: Service disruption in conflict affected areas Increased needs and capacity issues  Operational plan underdevelopment to scale the acute malnutrition response

June 2014 MARKETS & PRICES UPDATE

June 2014

Somalia Post-Gu Early Warning (Situation Analysis) FSNWG, Nairobi 19 June 2014 Information for Better Livelihoods

June 2014 Post-Deyr Situation In January-June 2014, an estimated 857,000 people were classified in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) requiring urgent humanitarian; IDPs represent the majority ( or 74%) Additional 2 million people were Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through June 2014.

June 2014 Climate Late start and largely below normal rainfall in most parts of Somalia; Moderate March- May rains were received only in: Bay and southern Gedo; parts of Middle and Lower Juba; parts of pastoral areas (Hawd and West Golis) of Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed regions in the Northwest. April 2014 TAMSAT RFE Diff from LTM Mar-Jun 2014 TAMSAT RFE Diff from LTM June dk E-modis NDVI May 2014 TAMSAT RFE Diff from LTM

June 2014 Climate Forecast 37th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa (May 27-28, 2014) Hagaa and Karan rains (Jun-Aug 2014) Hagaa rains: Increased likelihood of average to slightly below average in the coastal line and adjacent agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions Karan rains: Normal to slightly below normal in the agropastoral areas and West-Golis livelihoods of the Northwest regions Short-rainy season (Oct-Dec 2014) 80 percent chances of El Niño occurrence in late 2014, leading to above average rainfall over Eastern Horn of Africa, causing a wide range of river floods and flash floods (Shabelle/Juba river basins; lowlands in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones across Somalia.

June 2014 Market Prices Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SOSH/SLSH) Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SOSH)  Local cereal prices increased at high rates across southern regions in Jan-May 2014; they have escalated drastically (51-102%) in the Bakool, Shabelle and Hiran regions  Highest increases since a year ago (May 2013) as well as compared to 5yr average are recorded in Bakool (136% and 57% respectively)

June 2014 Consumer Price Index  The CPI change in southern Somalia: 12% increase in Jan-May 2014; 27% increase over the May 2013-May 2014 period  The highest annual increases in the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket: Bakool (72%), Hiran (36%) and Middle Shabelle (32%) mostly driven by cereal price increases (40% of the basket cost)

June 2014 Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Terms of Trade : Labour (Unskilled) Wage to Cereals (Jubas, Shabelles Banadir) Regional Trend in Terms of Trade Labour Wage to Cereals (Bay, Bakool, Gedo Hiran) Jan-May 2014: ToT declined in most regions of southern Somalia; Lowest ToT in May 2014 is recorded in Bakool (4kg/ daily wage) Significant annual declines: Bakool (57%) and Hiran (41%) ToT goat/ cereals: increased in Jan-May; but fell from May 2013 levels Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Goat Local Quality to Cereals

June 2014 Early Warning Late/ erratic Gu rains and conflicts that resulted in looming below average cereal production and increased cereal prices are the major factors affecting food security situation (both rural and urban livelihoods) in the post-Gu 2014; Limited humanitarian assistance as per current projection is unlikely to mitigate the impact (source: Food Security Cluster). If the El-Nino projection (80% chance) during the next short-rainy season is materialised, further deterioration could be expected in the last quarter of the year due to floods, particularly in riverine areas of southern Somalia The worst affected areas in the post-Gu, which may lead to downgrading of the IPC phase include: Bakool (agropastoral and urban); Southern Agropastoral livelihood of Gedo and Middle Juba regions; Hiran (agropastoral, riverine and urban); parts of Lower Shabelle region; Cowpea Belt of Central. Current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation is also likely to sustain in Middle Shabelle and coastal areas of Central and Northeast. Scaling-up of humanitarian assistance is required from now at least up to December 2014.

June 2014 GHACOF 37 Climate Outlook and El Niño Update By Zachary K.K. Atheru IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

June 2014 GHA Consensus Climate Outlook for the June to August 2014 rainfall season

June 2014 Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

June 2014 ENSO prediction (Courtesy of IRI/CPC) The chance of El Niño is 70% during JJA and reaches 80% during SOND 2014

June 2014 Thank you

June 2014 Situation and Response Analysis Framework: A new approach to Contingency Planning

June 2014 CONTEXT ECHO funded Capacity Building Grant Food Security in Slow-onset Crises Concern, Oxfam & Save the Children Phase 2 (Oct Dec 2014) Focus Countries: Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Mali, Niger, Afghanistan, Myanmar

June 2014 SELECT APPROPRIATE INTERVENTIONS IDENTIFY AGENCY PRIORITIES & PARTNERS COMMUNICATE to Communities & Partners MAP START-UP TIMELINES & PREPARE Strategic CONTINGENCY PLAN 1: RESPONSE ANALYSIS (CONTINGENCY PLANNING) LIVELIHOODS & MARKETS BASELINES MAP LIVELIHOODS CALENDAR DEVELOP DETAILED SCENARIOS DETERMINE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Forecast Operational 0 : BASELINE ANALYSIS 2: SITUATION ANALYSIS (SEASONAL LIVELIHOOD ANALYSIS) SITUATION VERIFICATION REFINE SCENARIOS UPDATED CONTINGENCY PLAN RESPONSE PLAN FEED INTO IPC TECH WORKING GROUP/ CLUSTERS HEA KEY PARAMETERS HEA OUTCOME ANALYSIS DECISION TREES/DECISION- MAKING TOOL HEA DASHBOARD (Outcome Analysis ) RAPID HEA PRE-CRISES MARKET ANALYSIS GUIDANCE MARKET RESPONSE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK (linked to/included in Decision Making Tool) INTEGRATED MARKET ANALYSIS GUIDANCE MARKET KEY PARAMETERS CEP/ CTP TRAINING AND RESOURCES Why do we need the situation and response analysis?

June 2014 Contingency Planning Key Findings Lack of predictive livelihood analysis = unclear what response options/budget needed; Contingency plans did not give a clear idea of what point they should be implemented; Actions proposed generally were not seen to be part of a wider strategy for response; Contingency planning often a heavy process leading to a ‘dead’ document in a drawer.

June 2014 Response Analysis Tools 1.Emergency Market Mapping & Analysis (EMMA) 2.WFP Market Analysis Framework (MAF) 3.FEWSNET Structure – Conduct – Performance Tool 4.LEGS: Participatory Response Identification Matrix (PRIM) 5.Seed Security Systems Assessment (SSSA) 6.WHO Decision Chart (Selective Feeding) 7.WFP Decision Tree (Nutrition Interventions / Food Products) 8.FAQR Decision Tree (In Improving the Quality of US Food Aid) 9.Market Information for Food Insecurity Response Analysis (MIFIRA) 10.ODI Good Practice Review Cash Transfer Programming in Emergencies 11.ECHO Decision Tree for Response Option 12.Save the Children Risk Assessment Tool 13.ACT Food Security & Livelihoods Assessment Guidelines 14.ICRC Global FSA Guidelines 15.ICRC Guideline for Cash Transfer Programs 16.ACF Implementing Cash Program 17.CARE Benefits / Harm Analysis Tool 18.Do No Harm 19.Prevention Corruption in Humanitarian Operations 20.FAO Response Analysis Framework (RAF) 21.WFP Response Analysis Project (RAP) 22.Oxfam Response Analysis Guide 23.IPC Response Analysis Tool

June 2014 Response Analysis Key Findings Little Formal Response Analysis takes place Where it does happen it is focused on secondary Level, Operational Response Analysis Agency Mandate & Perceptions of Donor Preferences are key determinants of response choice – but seldom make explicit

June 2014 Conclusions 1.Improving causal / problem analysis is essential for good Response Analysis 2.Response Analysis should be part of contingency planning & emergency preparedness 3.Contingency planning should be an ongoing ‘living’ process not a single step 4.How the work of an agency fits into the larger picture is critical 5.How contingency plans relate to decision-makers and timing of decisions is crucial.

June 2014

Approach THREE STAGES: 1.BASELINE ANALYSIS 2.CONTINGENCY PLANNING 3.CONTEXT MONITORING Understanding the way populations live is critical to understanding the impact of shocks Understanding livelihoods and markets is seen as minimum (other baseline info can be added)

June 2014 BASELINE ANALYSIS UNDERSTANDING THE SITUATION 1.LIVELIHOOD BASELINE: HEA 1.Standard approach in many Agencies & Countries 2.Quantifies Household Food, Income & Expenditure 3.Compares to Survival & Livelihoods Protection Threshold 4.Enables Modeling of Seasonal Changes - Rapid HEA 2. MARKET BASELINE: MIFIRA/EMMA -Minimum Guidance for Market Baselines

June 2014 Approach THREE STAGES: 1.BASELINE ANALYSIS 2.CONTINGENCY PLANNING 3.CONTEXT MONITORING Focus on Preparedness: Contingency Planning using Forecasts Envisaged to happen every season through district/County level 2 day workshop

June 2014 RESPONSE ANALYSIS CONTINGENCY PLANNING A.Develop Detailed Scenarios – e.g. HEA Outcome/scenario analysis B.Map Livelihood & Scenario Calendars – e.g. predicted rains and impact on pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. C.Determine Strategic Objectives – comprehensive e.g. immediate food/nutrition needs, livelihoods support, WASH,etc. D.Select Appropriate Interventions – appropriate eg food assistance, cash transfer, etc. E.Identify Agency Priorities & Partnerships – based on agency capacity and experience, priorities of partners, etc. F.Map Start-up Timelines & Decision Points – to ensure timely/early response, decision based on forecasts. G.Communicate - internally & externally

June 2014 Forecast

June 2014 Approach THREE STAGES: 1.BASELINE ANALYSIS 2.CONTINGENCY PLANNING 3.CONTEXT MONITORING Additional timely info is vital to support decision makers at decision making points Ongoing context monitoring and specific assessments for verification are recommended

June 2014 Monitoring & Refinement SEASONAL LIVELIHOOD ANALYSIS 1.Ongoing Monitoring: HEA Key Parameters, Market Information, Seasonal Calendar 2.Situation Assessments: Verification REFINE SCENARIOS UPDATE CONTINGENCY PLAN ACTIONS “FEED” RESULTS INTO IPC TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP

June 2014 SELECT APPROPRIATE INTERVENTIONS IDENTIFY AGENCY PRIORITIES & PARTNERS COMMUNICATE to Communities & Partners MAP START-UP TIMELINES & PREPARE Strategic CONTINGENCY PLAN 1: RESPONSE ANALYSIS (CONTINGENCY PLANNING) LIVELIHOODS & MARKETS BASELINES MAP LIVELIHOODS CALENDAR DEVELOP DETAILED SCENARIOS DETERMINE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Forecast Operational 0 : BASELINE ANALYSIS 2: SITUATION ANALYSIS (SEASONAL LIVELIHOOD ANALYSIS) SITUATION VERIFICATION REFINE SCENARIOS UPDATED CONTINGENCY PLAN RESPONSE PLAN FEED INTO IPC TECH WORKING GROUP/ CLUSTERS HEA KEY PARAMETERS HEA OUTCOME ANALYSIS DECISION TREES/DECISION- MAKING TOOL HEA DASHBOARD (Outcome Analysis ) RAPID HEA PRE-CRISES MARKET ANALYSIS GUIDANCE MARKET RESPONSE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK (linked to/included in Decision Making Tool) INTEGRATED MARKET ANALYSIS GUIDANCE MARKET KEY PARAMETERS CEP/ CTP TRAINING AND RESOURCES

June 2014

So what is different? Some key messages Effective and relevant contingency plans rely on good quality baseline information, including livelihoods and markets data, as part of a response analysis process; Contingency plans that recognise and prepare for agency start-up times support the delivery of timely response activities; Response analysis allows for the generation of early ‘no regret’ activities, that could protect livelihoods early in crisis evolution; Individual agency contingency plans should form part of an overall multi-agency response strategy, which is based on identified needs rather than on individual agency mandate; To remain reflective, accurate and useful, contingency planning refinement is an ongoing and iterative process.