Primaries and caucuses

Timing of primaries  The national parties usually lay down the earliest and latest possible dates but within that period the state decides the date Some states try to schedule their primaries on a date when no other primaries are being held to get their state prominence Other states create a regional primary A Tuesday in Feb when a number of states arrange their primaries together has come to be known as SUPER TUESDAY In 2008 Super Tuesday was in early Feb and was the biggest ever with 22 Democrat and 21 Republican contests being held.

Front-loading This is the phenomenon by which an increasing number of states schedule their presidential primaries or caucuses earlier in the cycle This is usually an attempt to increase the importance of their state In 1980 only 11 states had their primary before March By 5 February % of delegates to the Democratic and Republican conventions had been chosen (see sheet)

Iowa and New Hampshire By tradition they always hold the first primaries. These contests often shape the character of later contests. A serious candidate always looks to win in one of these states However, Bill Clinton failed to win either one Also, Howard Dean did badly here, (hence the scream) even tho he had won the invisible primary Kerry had put all his time and money into winning Iowa (which was first) which he did and this seemed to be a winning strategy as he then built up momentum and then won New Hampshire This seems to show these contests are more important than the invisible primary?

How representative are Iowa and New Hampshire? These contests seemed more important in 2004 than the invisible primary Answer the question using the sheet

Advantages of front loading Party settles its nomination early thus avoiding a protracted and expensive battle lasting for months

Disadvantages of front loading Unfairly favours well-known, well-organised and well-financed candidates and makes it much more difficult for so-called insurgent candidacies to be successful e.g. Jimmy Carter in 1976 Democratic race Because the nomination is decided so early, there is little opportunity for any reassessment of a candidate’s potential weaknesses. Can lead to ‘buyer’s remorse’. Has also lead to a chaotic timetable which makes it difficult for candidates to campaign

The 2008 Republican primary There were 8 candidates but only 4 were realistic ie McCain, Thompson, Romney and Guiliani McCain was the front-runner at the start of Any ideas why? Romney was the CEO of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City in 2002 and was also Governor of Massachusetts, a Republican governor of a Democrat state. But he is a Mormon and also seen as quite liberal

The 2008 Republican primary Guiliani was ‘America’s mayor’ after 09/11 However, he was also seen as too liberal for some Republicans and had a colourful private life Fred Thompson was in Law and Order but he dithered too much and then dropped out

The 2008 Republican primary Guiliani took a risk that did not pay off – he decided to sit out the first 6 contests as he felt he would be too liberal to play well with Republican voters He had failed to build up momentum or get media attention and thus bombed in Florida Romney thus put all his money into winning Iowa in the hope of building up momentum, however, Huckabee won Huckabee was seen as more ‘normal’ than the slick Romney

Continued New Hampshire helped McCain, he had done what Bill Clinton had in 1992 when he labelled himself the ‘comeback kid’. He had been behind in the money primary but then started to build momentum McCain had beaten Romney in every demographic except the over 65s In the following contests it was his support amongst ‘independents’ which helped him

Crowning of McCain Super Tuesday sealed McCain’s fate as the Republican nominee He won 6 of the 7 ‘winner-takes-all’ contests including California. Huckabee had played a key role as he had taken votes away from Romney having support from evangelicals and the South

Why did McCain win? Mainly because his opposition imploded e.g. Guiliani’s disastrous strategy Romney being liberal but pandering to the conservative right of the Republican party Thompson dithered Huckabee only really appealed to southerners and evangelicals McCain had remained true to himself even on unpopular issues e.g. immigration, Iraq and campaign finance reform

The 2008 Democratic primary There were 3 front-runners - Clinton, Obama and John Edwards Clinton was the clear front-runner, 2 months before Iowa she was 28% ahead of Obama However, she came 3 rd in the Iowa caucuses She never really recovered from this Charlie Cook ‘National Journal’ – ‘The Democratic nomination fight may not be over but the landscape has completely changed’

2008 Democrat primary contest The poll after the Iowa caucuses put Obama and Clinton at 33% each Hillary tried to show her more human side as she was now fighting for her political life 05Fk 05Fk She won New Hampshire but only by 8000 votes. More women had voted for her and the younger voters

2008 Democratic primary contest Between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday Clinton won Nevada and Obama won South Carolina Most women voted for Clinton and the over 65s but every other social group voted for Obama in South Carolina Obama got the endorsement of Ted Kennedy Bill had campaigned in South Carolina and he seemed to be losing his cool Ted Kennedy said that the contest had ‘fundamentally altered the dynamics of the Democrat presidential contest’

Super Tuesday The result was a draw, with Obama just ahead on points Obama won 13 to Clinton’s 9 but Clinton’s tally included large-population states of California and New York Obama won 847 delegates to Clinton’s 834 Clinton had not expected the primary contests to last and thus had no plan to move forward Obama now had the big mo

The end of Clinton Hillary’s contest ended in February Obama won 9 contests in 11 days and pulled ahead in terms of delegate numbers Clinton sacked her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle By mid-February Obama was ahead in the polls and was now winning votes amongst women, low income earners and conservatives away from Clinton Symbolically, the Obama team started his speech before she had even finished hers Clinton hoped to win Texas to show she could still win big

Hillary’s last hurrah Clinton team were running out of the big mo and money and everyone was waiting for to bow out However, she had a better March and April – winning Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island Clinton focussed on Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience Her ’sniper fire’ quote was found to be misleading However, Obama had his own bad press due to his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his controversial comments Clinton clung on until June when Obama finally received the 2,118 delegate votes he needed

Why did Clinton lose? The 2008 Democratic nomination race was supposed to be a coronation for Clinton not a competition She had been planning her victory for more than a decade But this was part of her problem, the air of inevitability, this counted against her with voters

Poor organisation, personnel and management Based organisation similar to Bill’s campaign in 92 Chief personnel were Patti Solis Doyle and Mark Penn who were friends and not necessarily the best people for the job There seemed to be no clear plan Some of her team were fighting with each other

Losing the money primary ‘Mrs Clinton built the best fund-raising machine of the 20 th century but Mr Obama trumped her by building the best fund-raising machine of the 21 st century’ The Economist Clinton campaign was raising money the old way – thru fat cats and ‘whales’ i.e. big donors who only donate once Obama was raising money thru the internet getting $50 or $100 but many times

Change, not experience Voters according to polls wanted change but Clinton had based her campaign on ‘experience’ and tried to attack Obama for lack of it

The Iowa defeat Clinton finished third in Iowa and from then on was always on the defensive She needed to have a big win in New Hampshire to pull things back but altho she did win it was only by 3 percentage points

No plan past Super Tuesday ‘It’ll be over by 5 February’ Clinton had claimed just days before the Iowa caucuses She thus had no plan to move forward and was running out of money

Bill Clinton The campaign started to be about Bill and his erratic behaviour He was supposed to be an asset but had turned from ‘statesman into attack dog’ Newsweek The issue became if she can’t control her husband, who the hell is going to run this White House – a Clinton insider pw

Primary calendar and party rules ‘It was the primary calendar that killed Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign’ New York Observer If the Democrats had allowed winner- takes-all primaries If Florida and Michigan had been a bit later etc