The Future of Weather-Related Disasters Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss: A Potential Culprit in Recent Weather Extremes

$15 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 (NCDC)

Costliest U.S. Weather Disaster in History: Drought and Locust Plague of 1874 – 1877, $169 billion (2012 dollars)

$15+ Billion non-U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 Source:

The Future of Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms

12) Tampa Bay Hurricane Probability: 20% Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

11) Japanese Super Typhoon Probability: 10% Flooding from Category 5 Super Typhoon Vera, September 26, 1959 Strongest typhoon on record in Japan: 160 mph winds, 5,098 killed

Potential tracks of a $100-billion Japanese super typhoon

China floods and landslides, 2010: 4245 killed, $51 billion damage 10) China Flood Probability: 20%

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane Probability: 30% 1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) Miami Hurricane Probability: 40% Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

7) New Orleans Hurricane Probability: 30% New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Northern China dust storm, April 6, ) China Drought Probability: 20%

Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, ) New York City Hurricane Probability: 10%

New York's LaGuardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter

PATH Train Station in Hoboken, NJ during the December 12, 1992 Nor’easter

June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta 4) California ARkSTORM Flood Probability: 20% 4) California ARkSTORM Flood Probability: 20%

3) U.S. Drought Probability: 50% Texas drought, 2011: $12 billion in damage

A $100 billion, 1-in-100-year U.S. drought would seriously strain world food prices

1988 Drought: 7,500 killed, $71 billion in damage

Dust Bowl Drought: 5,000 killed, 2.5 million people displaced

The future of drought, 30 years from now?

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water 2) Mississippi River Changes Course Probability: 10%

Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, and 14th busiest ports: $300 million per day. Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports. Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver. Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City (population 12,000) No fresh water for: - One million people, including all of New Orleans - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals Costs of Mississippi River changing course

1) Volcanic or Nuclear Winter Probability: 10% Mt. Pinatubo eruption, June 15, 1991, Philippines

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