Chapter 6 Public Opinion, Political Socialization and the Media

Public Opinion Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population No one public opinion; many different “publics” Key role in policymaking A source of power in dealing with other politicians Helps candidates identify issue concerns Policy leaders respond to changes in public opinion about 2/3 of the time Sets limits on government action through public pressure Consensus opinion – general agreement on an issue Divisive opinion – polarized between two quite different positions

Figure 6-1: Consensus Opinion QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush handled his job as president in the first few weeks after the September 11 terrorist attacks? SOURCE: The Gallup Poll, January 23-25, 2003

Figure 6-2: Divisive Opinion QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush has handled his job as president over the past few weeks? SOURCE: The Gallup Poll, January 23-25, 2003

Qualities of Public Opinion Intensity – strength of a position intense opinions often generate public action intense minority can often win over a less intense majority Fluidity – extent to which public opinion changes over time Stability – extent to which public opinion remains constant Relevance – extent to which an issue is of concern issues become relevant when they are viewed as of direct concern to daily life Political knowledge – extent to which individuals are aware of an issue

Discussion Questions How much should public opinion influence government decisionmakers? Should policymakers ever ignore public opinion? Should policymakers simply “follow the polls”?

Measuring Public Opinion Opinion poll = a method of systematically questioning a small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population Simple random sample – each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample Most scientific; sample represents population’s diversity in demography and opinion Quota sample – less accurate; polling organizations predetermine the characteristics of the needed sample, and then find respondents with those characteristics to fill the slots Sampling error – difference between a sample’s results and the result if the entire population had been interviewed

Problems with Polls Polls are a “snapshot in time” of potentially shifting opinions Classic errors: presidential election polls in 1948 and 1980 (Dewey beating Truman; Carter beating Reagan) Sampling errors (e.g., biased samples, samples too small, etc.) Question wording/influence of interviewer Unscientific polls (Internet, phone-in, push polls) High non-response rates

Political Socialization Process by which individuals acquire political beliefs, attitudes, and opinions Agents/forces of political socialization… Family Education Peers Religion Economic Status/occupation/class Political Events Opinion Leaders Media/TV/Internet Demography/Age/Gender

Discussion Questions What agents of political socialization had/have the most important influence on your political opinions, beliefs, and attitudes? In what ways are political socialization agents working on you now? What influence has your college experience had on your political beliefs?

Effect of Family Most important agent of political socialization Link to other forces of socialization How does it work?…Communication and Receptivity Parents communicate preferences to children Children want to please parents and are receptive to their views Important for party identification Children generally follow in their parents’ footsteps when it comes to political party identification Class poll: How many of us have followed in our parents’ footsteps when it comes to party identification?

Party Identification from Parent to Child Democrat Independent Republican Both Parents Democrats 59% 29% 13% Both Parents Independents 17% 67% 16% Both Parents Republicans 12% SOURCE: 1992 National Election Study Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan

Effects of Education and Peers Learn patriotism, structure of government and how to form positions on issues The more education a person has, the more likely he or she will be interested in politics Peers Peer group = group whose members share common social characteristics Most likely to shape political opinions when peer group is politically active

Effects of Religion Traditional view was that religious groups transmit definite political preferences Roman Catholics  more liberal Protestants  more conservative Jews  more liberal More recent trends suggest… Jews  liberal socially and economically Non-religious  very liberal socially; mixed economically Protestants and Catholics vary socially and economically Powerful predictors of social conservatism among Christians (varied on economic issues) Degree of religious commitment Conservative, evangelical, or fundamentalist

Effects of Economic Status/Class Family income a strong predictor of liberalism or conservatism Lower income More likely to favor government action to benefit the poor or promote economic equality More likely to be socially conservative More likely to be Democrat Higher income More likely to oppose government intervention in the economy or support it only when it benefits business More likely to be socially liberal More likely to be Republican or Libertarian Socioeconomic status (SES) = best predictor of whether or not one participates in politics; an even better predictor as the activity becomes more demanding

Effects of Political Events Events can shape people’s political attitudes Generational effect = a long-lasting effect of events of a particular time on the political opinions of those who came of political age at that time Great Depression World War II Vietnam War 9/11?

Effects of Opinion Leaders and Media Opinion Leader = one who is able to influence the opinions of others because of position, expertise, or personality Leaders sometimes influence the opinions of others Media = channels of mass communication Newspapers, television, radio and the Internet strongly influence public opinion Sometimes shape opinion Oftentimes not what to think, but certainly what to think about, known as agenda setting

Demographic Effects Region South, Great Plains, and Rockies  Republican West Coast and Northeast  Democratic Residence (urban/suburban/rural) Big cities  liberal and Democratic Small communities  conservative and Republican Ethnicity African Americans more liberal Whites  more conservative Gender Men more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate Women more likely to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Gender Gap = difference between percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of men who vote for the candidate

Public Opinion and Political Process Public opinion influences policymakers and political process Source of power Identify key issues Shape campaigns Political culture = collection of beliefs and attitudes toward government and the political process held by a community or nation Symbols Shared beliefs liberty, equality, property Support for religion Community service and personal achievement Structure of government Provides environment of support (trust, legitimacy) Political trust = degree to which individuals express trust in the government and political institutions Standard for evaluation of performance

Public Opinion About Government Considerable ambivalence regarding governmental institutions Tend to rise and fall with attitudes toward general state of the nation Even though people may not have high levels of trust in institutions, we turn to government to solve major problems See Tables 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3

Table 6-1: Trends in Political Trust QUESTION: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 1968 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 % saying: Always/ Most of the time Some of the time 61 36 53 45 33 63 29 67 25 73 32 64 46 51 42 55 44 54 27 23 75 20 79 71 34 66 40 59 35 52 SOURCES: New York Times/CBS News Surveys; the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, National Election Studies; the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press; Council for Excellence in Government; a Washington Post poll, September 25-27, 2001; and a Gallup poll, September 2-4, 2002.

Table 6-2: Confidence in Institutions Trend QUESTION: I am going to read a list of institutions in American society. Would you please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little? Percentage Saying “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 Military 57 54 50 53 61 63 69 67 64 60 68 66 79 82 Church or organized religion 65 62 52 56 58 45 Banks and banking na 46 51 42 30 38 43 41 44 47 U.S. Supreme Court 39 49 Public schools 48 35 40 36 Television 25 29 28 24 21 33 34 Newspapers 31 32 Congress 18 19 22 26 Organized labor 23 Big business 20 na = not asked SOURCE: Gallup poll, June 9-10, 2003.

Public Opinion and Policymaking Public opinion important in policymaking Politicians not always guided by opinion polls Choices involving trade-offs have to be made Informed policy choice requires understanding of policy area and consequences of any given choice Politicians attempt to maximize the net benefits to his or her constituents while keeping within whatever the politician believes government can afford

Media and Politics Functions of the Media Entertainment Reporting the news Identifying public problems setting the public agenda = issues perceived by the political community as meriting public attention and governmental action Socializing new generations Providing a political forum Making profits Enormous impact on politics Shapes and reflects public opinion

Primacy of Television Most influential medium (primary source of information for 90% of Americans) Big business Increase in news-type programming Influence on political process Highly superficial “Sound bites” Narrowcasting Talk-show politics on TV, radio, internet Internet (increasingly important source for political communication and fund-raising)

Media and Political Campaigns Politicians use TV widely because of its importance to the public Advertising (very costly; driving up costs of campaigns) Negative advertising works Can reduce participation and increase cynicism Management of news coverage spin = interpretation of campaign events or election results that is favorable to the candidate’s campaign strategy spin doctors = political campaign advisor who tries to convince journalists of the truth of a particular interpretation of events Presidential debates Media’s impact on voters – hard to know exactly; influential among people who are undecided

Political Ad Spending on Broadcast TV, 1992-2000 Millions of Dollars SOURCE: Television Bureau of Advertising, as presented in Lorraine Woellert and Tom Lowry, “A Political Nightmare: Not Enough Airtime,” Business Week, November 23, 2000, p. 111.

Audiences Reached by Leading Media ABC 9,940,000 Time 4,122,699 New York Times 1,258,853 Chicago Tribune 669,629 CBS 8,020,000 NBC 9,950,000 Los Angeles 1,135,682 Times Newsweek 3,147,497 Washington Post 658,828

Media and Government Media can influence government and elected officials Media and the Presidency Relationship of codependency; they need each other White House Press Corps = reporters assigned full-time to cover presidency President’s press secretary = presidential staff member responsible for handing White House media relations and communications Primary role of media in the U.S. = setting the public agenda; determining the policy issues that need to be addressed

Discussion Questions Does the media have too much power in America? Is it possible for news organizations to remain independent of the pressure to generate ever-increasing profits through ad revenues? Does corporate ownership influence what is and is not covered by the media? Do we have a “free” press in the U.S.?

Hot Links to Selected Internet Resources Book’s Companion Site: http://politicalscience.wadsworth.com/schmidtbrief2004 Wadsworth’s Political Science Site: http://politicalscience.wadsworth.com Yale University Library Public Opinion Subject Guide: http://library.yale.edu/socsci/opinion National Election Studies: http://www.umich.edu/~nes The Gallup Organization: http://www.gallup.com U-Wire.com: http://www.uwire.com