January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays1 Stray Dogs & Cats Draft Conservation Assessment of Commercial Sector Stand-Alone Measures

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays2 Context Technical & Economic Potential –Not yet adjusted for achievable potential –Not yet adjusted for baseline adoption of measure due to practices or price –Economic Potential based on TRC Benefit/Cost Ratio >=1.0

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays3 Costs & savings modeled under Council Inputs –4.75% Discount Rate –Zero Externalities Credit –Program costs at 20% of capital cost Context

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays4 List of Measures

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays5 Quiz: Which is the biggest? Answer: Later

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays6 Process Optimization Sensors & Controls Remote Monitoring Training Municipal Sewage Treatment

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays7 Municipal Sewage Treatment Facilities 842 Total Electricity Use Total Treated Flow Pilot Savings NEB 2000 MGD 340 MWa 30% to 70% Big and Bold

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays8 MST Major Input Assumptions Use per MDG from 194 facilities by type Total capacity from survey of 842 with capacity data on about 500 Costs, NEB and Savings from BacGen pilots and site visits Current penetration minimal

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays9 MST Major Input Assumptions Savings Potential Inputs % –Activated Sludge >10 MGD = –Activated Sludge 1-10 MGD = –Activated Sludge < 1 MGD = –Extended Aeration Lagoons = –Aerated/Mixed Lagoons = 9% 25% 30% 25%

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays10 MST Non-Energy Benefits Labor (automation of sampling & report) Solids reduction (removal & disposal) Chemical reduction Capacity enhancement (not quantified)

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays11 Municipal Sewage Treatment

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays12 Municipal Sewage Treatment

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays13 Municipal Sewage Treatment Natural Utility Program –Each facility is different –Strong non-energy benefits –Lots of barriers Industrial sewage treatment loads are similar magnitude –Add to industrial supply curve

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays14 LED Traffic Lights Still remaining retrofit potential Spotty penetration –Seattle & Portland completed R&G –Ada County Idaho at 10% Costs dropping Green now cost-effective It’s a question of when

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays15 LED Traffic Lights Stock Inputs –Based on national data on signal density –Growth with population Retrofit Penetration of LED –Based on informal phone survey by state – Red 56%, Green 38%, Walk 4% New Signal Penetration of LEDs –Red 90%, Green 90%, Walk 50%

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays16 LED Traffic Lights

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays17 LED Exit Signs Stock estimates vary widely –Used conservative estimate –2,000,000 units Retrofit penetration –20% LED & CFL –Previous CFL available for retro New construction penetration –80% LED

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays18 Cost & Savings Potential –Used RTF assumptions Retrofit Technologies –LED 80% –Electro-Luminescent 10% –CFL 5% –Cold Cathode 5% LED Exit Signs

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays19 Exit Signs

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays20 Municipal Water Supply Identified during sewage treatment pilots Municipal use for treatment is 120 –150 MWa Aging systems 4600 facilities PNW Savings potential 20-30% –24MWa to 45 MWa Need cost estimates – pilot

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays21 Municipal Water Supply Population Served Number of Systems Total Population ,528469, , ,805 3,301-10, ,064,488 10, , ,265,912 >100,000122,705,212 Total4,5749,469,538

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays22 Municipal Water Supply Real-Time System Modeling & Optimization Pump Systems Benchmarking & Optimization Low-cost Metering & Data Collection Automated Pressure Management Automated Monitoring, Control & Optimization Leak Detection & Pipeline Monitoring

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays23 Network PC Management Better enabling of power management controls Savings 200kWh/PC Existing Savings 160kWh/PC New Stock changeover

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays24 Network PC Management Stock Assumptions –Growth tied to commercial employment –Plus 20% increase in density of desktop PC –Conversion to LCD display –Conversion to hotter chips Savings Assumptions –200 kWh/PC existing PCs per RTF –160 kWh/PC new PCs

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays25 Network PC Management

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays26 Network PC Management

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays27 Network PC Management

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays28 LCD Computer Monitors Market share now 20%+ Costs dropping with production capacity increases Assume in Forecast Remove 45 MWa at 2025

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays29 Power Supplies in Equipment TV Cordless phone Computers UPS Visa machine Answering machines Chargers

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays30 Power Supplies in Equipment US Stock – 8 per person 2.5 Billion Units US Power Supply Losses – 350 MWa Efficiencies –40% Low End –90% High End Savings Potential –US 175 MWa, PNW 7 MWa and growing

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays31 Packaged Refrigeration Appliances Vending Machines Ice Makers Reach-ins Beverage Merchandisers Walk-ins Water Coolers

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays32 Packaged Refrigeration Appliances

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays33 Not Yet Estimated Commercial clothes washers Printers and copiers Parking garage ventilation Air compressors GFX heat exchangers Street and highway lighting High velocity hand dryers

January 21, 2003Coommercial Sector Strays34