VTrans2040 VTrans Multimodal Transportation Plan (VMTP) Blueprint for Livable Communities - Citizen Advisory Group Henrico, VA July 17, 2015 Kelli Nash (OIPI)

2 What is VTrans2040? Vision Guiding Principles Goals Objectives VTrans Vision Document 2025 Needs Assessment 2040 Scenario Analysis VTrans Multimodal Transportation Plan

3 3 INTRODUCTION KEY QUESTIONS “Demographic and market studies consistently show that workers in the 21 st century economy prefer walkable communities that are served by rail and public transit, as well as roads. If we want to cultivate this work force, which we need to do, we need to get ahead of these trends.” Governor McAuliffe June 18, 2014

4 4 INTRODUCTION Part of the first phase of developing VTrans2040 Understanding the future trends that may shape current policies TRENDS (what the world may look like in 2040) OUTCOMES (what transportation may look like in 2040) TRENDS ANALYSIS:

5 Growth by 2040: Virginia 28.6% USA 21.7% Highest Millennial growth: Urbanized Regions Not Just Urban Centers Seniors (65+): in 2012: 13% in 2040: 18% Virginia is Growing Virginia is Aging Millennial Concentrations 71% of Growth by 2040 is concentrated in 10 cities/counties Growth Concentrations

6 Professional Medical Government Admin. & Support Prof. Services & Finance in urban areas Health Care & Manufacturing more dispersed Statewide Real Estate Manufacturing Professional & Scientific Public Administration Top Industry Sectors ( 56% of payroll Statewide by 2040) Top Sectors for GDP Concentrations By Region Will hold steady to 2040 with declines in agriculture offset by growth in health care Rural Employment (Statewide by 2040)

7 Port of VA growth since 2009 will continue Inbound coal freight will continue declines Rail up 88% Truck up 31% Air up 100% Pipeline down 17% Intermodal up 107% Future Freight Trends Freight Modal Shifts (Statewide by 2040) Tourism Impacts (Statewide in 2012) $21.2 B in spending Supported 210,00 jobs Contributed to $4.7 B in payroll Future Commodities Trends By value, Pharmaceuticals, Electronics & Machinery are fastest –growing

8 Ride sharing Car sharing Bike sharing Ride matching Wireless vehicle communication Wireless elec. Charging Driverless cars/buses Test bed on I-66, I- 495 Smart Road by VTTI & VDOT Anti icing Shared Use Mobility Smart Technology - Infrastructure Smart Technology - Vehicles Rural Employment (Statewide by 2040)

9 Coastal VA is 2 nd most vulnerable region in US 308 ac. Port property 129 ac. Airport runways 253,990 ac. total Sea level rise greater than average Low elevations, land subsidence Ecosystem degradation Climate Change Sea Level Rise Impacts At Risk Transportation Infrastructure (Statewide) Heat Waves Impacts Road/bridge expansion Rail track deformation Airport lift off limitations

10 Draft Final Vision Plan

11 VTrans and VMTP Steps Trends Research Vision/Goals/Objective Complete Vision Plan Performance Measures Needs Assessment Scenario Analysis Recommendations Complete VMTP VTrans2040 Vision Plan VTrans2040 Multimodal Plan We are Here HB2

12 VMTP Framework Three types of needs: CAPACITY & OPERATIONS NEEDS CoSS Regional Networks UDAs State of Good Repair Safety Capacity/Operations HB2

13 VMTP Needs Assessment - Three Travel Markets

14 CoSS - Analysis Segments

15 CoSS 2025 Needs Assessment Categories of Needs and Focus of Assessment Safety Reliability Congestion Multimodal Choice & Redundancy

16 VMTP Needs Assessment - Three Travel Markets

17 DESIRED FUTURE ECONOMIC CONDITION “GAP” = Transportation “NEED” CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITION CURRENT TRANSPORTATION CONDITION TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM NEEDED TO SUPPORT FUTURE ECONOMIC CONDITION VMTP Planning Process – Regional Networks

18 Regional Profiles

19 Needs Address the Area, Corridor and Regional Improvements Needed to Serve the 2025 Economy

20 Example Regional Network Needs Needs Derived From Economic and Transportation Profile – Central Virginia Region

21 VMTP Needs Assessment - Three Travel Markets

22 Urban Development Areas - Background VMTP Needs Assessment Context sensitive multimodal transportation solutions Last-mile access to jobs and non-work attractions Safe bicycle and pedestrian circulation Improve connections to local multimodal networks and regional transportation options Local planning assistance

23 Urban Development Areas 1. Location Research 2. Data Assessment 3. Local Needs Assessment 4. Confirm & Organize Needs 5. Share with Stakeholders Ongoing April May June/July Regional Forums Public Outreach CTB Meetings

24 Updated UDA Locations Designated UDAs per Section Current Status* Total UDAs *Note: OIPI is working with localities to identify other locally designated growth areas (not mapped here) that meet the intent of (but are not called UDAs). Localities are formally referencing the Code of Virginia for these places to ensure eligibility for HB2.

25 UDA NEEDS Update on VTrans Multimodal Transportation Plan 2025 Needs Assessment

26 Process Update

27 Thank You