Decision Support Services: A Review of NWS Buffalo Operations following the Crash of Continental Flight 3407 Judith Levan Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service, Buffalo NY

Continental Flight 3407 Operated by Colgan Air February 12, 2009 Departed Newark, NJ at 9:20 p.m. enroute to Buffalo, NY On Board: Two pilots Two flight attendants 45 passengers

Continental Flight 3407 February 12, 2009 Bombardier Dash 8 Twin-engined turboprop Length 107’ 9” Wingspan 93’ 3” Fuel Capacity 1724 US gal

Continental Flight 3407 February 12, 2009 Last communication with flight 10:17 p.m. Flight 3407 crashed into a house during an instrument approach to Buffalo-Niagara International Airport. 

Continental Flight 3407 50 Fatalities (49 on-board, 1 on the ground)

Continental Flight 3407

Continental Flight 3407 WFO BUF

Continental Flight 3407 Clarence Center VFD

6038 Long Street, Clarence Center Continental Flight 3407 6038 Long Street, Clarence Center

Continental Flight 3407 Lot size: 75’ x 210’ Dash 8 93’ span 107’ long

Weather and Forecast Note: WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours (Accident occurred at approx 0320z) KBUF 130020Z 1300/1324 24015KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN OVC015         FM130200 25014G24KT 5SM -SHSN BR OVC020         FM130600 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060         FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025         FM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120         FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030 KBUF 130254Z 24015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN021 OVC027 01/M01 A2979 AMD KBUF 130322Z 1303/1324 25014G24KT 3SM -SHSN BR OVC020 FM130500 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060 FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025F FM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120 FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030= KBUF 130354Z 24011KT 3SM -SN BR SCT011 OVC021 01/M01 A2981 Note: WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours

How does one react to disaster? A Review of Support Provided by NWS Buffalo to Emergency Responders

Weather Forecast Office Typically “ramp up” to event Outlook, Watch, Warning Conference Calls with Partners Extra Staffing Emergency Managers / Responders React to events

NWS Buffalo NY On duty Office remodeled in 2008 Two forecasters Workstations focus on Situational Awareness Displays

Continental Flight 3407 ~10:20 p.m. Accident Occurs 10:00 p.m. Newscast ends with breaking news of a possible plane crash

Continental Flight 3407 10:40 p.m. FAA Approach contacts NWS 10:45 p.m. Forecaster calls office Office begins notifications to Regional Headquarters MIC and WCM are called Archiving of data begins

Continental Flight 3407 11:30 p.m. WFO contacts AOMC Initiate Aircraft Incident Report

Continental Flight 3407 2:30 a.m. MIC arrives at office 4:30 a.m. WCM arrives at office Between 2:00 and 4:00 am – Numerous media sources begin calling Initial speculation that weather was a cause All inquiries are referred to the FAA

On-site Support By 6:00 a.m. the NWS had a presence at the EOC and began providing on-site support Still considered a fire-fighting operation With no survivors WCM “to-go” kit included Laptop Printer Aircard Cell phone Power Cords

Continental Flight 3407 Several forecasters on-station, including the WCM, Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and IMET-trainee, had ICS training As part of the planning branch, we provided real-time and forecast information During “down-time” assisted in logging and planning branch activities

Erie County utilizes Disaster Lan (D-Lan) for incident management The program has a weather “page” which displays current conditions, forecasts, radar loops. All of this is NWS data. Active weather statements/products are also highlighted.

Continental Flight 3407 NWS provided weather briefing at ops meetings (held twice daily)

Spot Forecasts An internet-based interactive program In support of a wildfire – available to any federal, state, tribal or local official For non-wildfire purposes – available to Public Safety Officials when essential to public safety 43 spots forecasts from 2/13 thru 2/21

Spot Forecasts Focus transitioned as the recovery operations progressed Initial forecasts: smoke dispersion / HAZMAT releases Recovery Operations: temperatures/precipitation Recovery Operations Heavy Equipment: winds

Continental Flight 3407 Recovery Operations took five days Other than firefighting, no work was done during nighttime hours “Five day recovery plan” was forced by a Friday 2/13 forecast of rain and snow on Thursday 2/19

National Transportation Safety Board Meanwhile, back at the NWS Forecast Office, support provided to NTSB Aircraft Incident Reports ASOS Data (observations) RAOBs (balloon data) Other Warnings Short Term Forecasts Spot Forecasts

Summary Reaction to Disasters Built on Instinct Instructions To Support Emergency Operations and Station Duty Manuals are Critical Rely on your “team” e. g. Regional Headquarters / IMETs Recent Efforts in Short Term Forecasting and Aviation Support paid off Situation Awareness Displays and Ops Area reconfiguration were an asset

Summary Prior Rapport Between the Local National Weather Service Office and Emergency Management Community is Essential Knowledge by EM community of what types of support NWS can provide, including on-site

Summary We were extremely fortunate to have four days of sunny skies and fair weather after the crash. Community outreach by NWS Staff makes the office a part of the local community

Questions?