© 2012 VMG Health AARON MURSKI SENIOR MANAGER VMG HEALTH ASC Valuation Update & Current M&A Trends.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2012 VMG Health AARON MURSKI SENIOR MANAGER VMG HEALTH ASC Valuation Update & Current M&A Trends

Presentation Overview I. Current Market Analysis II. ASC Transaction Market III. ASC Valuation – In Practice 2

3 Current Market Analysis ●ASC Industry is mature ●Economic Downturn Continues to Impact ASC Volumes, but Volumes Clearly Gaining Traction ●Significant Managed Care & Medicare Reimbursement Pressure ●Uncertainty Regarding Healthcare Reform’s Long- Term Impact on ASCs

4 Current Market Analysis ●All Signs Point to a Mature ASC Industry Growth in ASC Development has Leveled Off Same Center Growth has Flat-Lined ASC Supply Exceeds Physician Demand in Most Markets Significant Capacity at Many ASCs Growth in Observed ASC Mergers & Consolidation Initial Stages of Consolidation among ASC Management Companies

5 Current Market Analysis >10% Annual Growth ●Declining Growth in New ASC Development 2-3% Annual Growth Prior to 2008: Significant ASC Development to Meet Physician Demand Post 2008: Supply of ASCs has Met or Exceeded Physician Demand

6 Current Market Analysis ●Same Center Volume Growth Recovering Source: Company’s Annual Reports USPI 7%6%2% (1%)1% AMSURG 5%4% 1%0%9.5% Market Forces Driving this Trend: 1.Diminishing Ability to Attract New Volume / Physicians 2.Trend stabilized and is beginning to show reversal after economic downturn (pent up demand)

7 Current Market Analysis ●Growth in Excess Capacity reached inflection point, currently trending in positive direction Source: VMG Health Intellimarker ASC Survey 25% Decline in OR Utilization from 2007 to 2010

8 Current Market Analysis ●Greatest Challenges Facing ASCs in Today’s Market I.Inability to Attract New Physician Investment & Volume  Declining Physician Investor Pool  Price Prohibitive Cost for Investment  Inability to show Attractive Return  Existence of Alternatives for Physicians II.Declining Reimbursement Rates  Out of Network Drying Up  Squeezed by Managed Care  Current & Projected Medicare Pressure

9 Current Market Analysis 9-10% Annual Growth in ASCs 2-3% Annual Growth in Eligible Drs >40% Decline In Eligible Drs Per ASC ●Supply of ASCs has Exceeded Demand from Physicians # of Eligible Physicians per ASC

Under & Over Age 45 and over Age under 44 Number of Physicians (Thousands) Age Group Current Market Analysis 1980 – Approx 20% over Age – Approx 30% over Age – Approx 40% over Age 55 ●Aging Physician Demographic will Further Limit Recruitment & Volume Source: “Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US” by American Medical Association (2009 Edition) Demographics of the Physician Workforce

11 First – Year MD Enrollment per 100,000 Population has Declined Since 1980 Current Market Analysis ●Supply of New Physicians will Likely not Meet Demand of Existing ASCs Source: “Help Wanted: More US Doctors – Projections Indicate American will Face Shortage of MDs by 2020” by AAMC

12 Current Hospital Employment Trends Current Market Analysis ●New Competition: Hospital Employed Physicians on the Rise Since 2000:  Employed PCPs has Doubled  However Employed Specialists has increased 5-fold Source: “Toward Accountable Care” from the Health Care Advisory Board at the 2010 Special CEO Sessions (June 2010)

13 Current Market Analysis ● What to Expect in a Mature Industry Environment? o Attracting new volume is the greatest challenge o Increase in mergers and limited ASC failure o Moderated returns for most ASCs o Hospitals becoming more involved ●Independent ASCs are not increasing in number – control valuations should remain high for well run ASCs with a good story ●The value range of minority shares should become wider, as ASCs struggle to find physicians

14 ASC Transaction Market ● ASC Acquisition Market – Who are the Buyers? I.Acute Care Hospitals – On the rise, better HOPD rates, physician affiliation strategy, growth in market share II. National Owner/Operators – Acquisitions, growth strategy and expense synergies III. Other ASCs – Mergers, expense synergies IV. Physician Owned Hospitals – Barred from adding capacity – need strategy to expand

15 ASC Transaction Market Acquisition Multiples have remained High but Widened All ASCs are Not Created Equal with Respect to Valuation Multiples Control EBITDA Multiples 2005Present ● And What Do They Pay? I.Acute Care Hospitals – industry-wide capital constraints, balance many priorities II. National Owner/Operators – usually very motivated, focused on ASCs III. Other ASCs – Mergers, usually no cash changes hands – relative valuation

16 ASC Transaction Market ● Rationale for sellers continues to evolve… I. Physicians – recruiting help, capital partner, better leverage, operational know how, reform worries, life-cycle of professional practice, etc. II. Regional Owner/Operators – Dramatic shifts in physician employment locally, physician frustrations force divestitures III. National Owner/Operators – Limited, but it happens ● Increase in turnaround opportunities ● Increase in multi-party joint ventures – best of both worlds o Two mgmt companies partner as controlling member o Mgmt company / hospital partner as controlling member ● De novo development still happening, but limited

ASC Transaction Market Evidence of management company consolidation 2011  Amsurg acquires National Surgical Care  18 surgery centers  $173.5 million in cash  1.4 x Revenue, 8.0 x EBITDA  Surgery Partners acquires NovaMed  37 surgery centers, 19 states  $214 million, assumes $105 million of debt  1.4 x Revenue, 5.1 x EBITDA 17

ASC Transaction Market All ASCs are Not Created Equal with Respect to Valuation Multiples Minority Share Valuations 2005Present Minority Multiples Minority multiples have Declined and Widened Minority share valuations affected by macro trends  Range of minority valuation multiples have declined  Many ASC opportunities for physicians – large supply, moderate demand  Alternative investment risk is higher  Turnarounds and de novos are attractive alternative to high cost of ownership in profitable ASC’s  Leads to decline/moderation of minority value for profitable ASC’s

19 ASC Valuation – In Practice Summary Purposes for ASC valuation Primary drivers of value Valuations of a controlling interest Valuations of a non-controlling equity interest Considerations for hospitals acquiring and converting ASCs

20 ASC Valuation – In Practice Purposes for ASC Valuation Over-riding purpose for most ASC Valuations is compliance with the Federal Anti-Kickback Statute  No specific application of Stark Law or limitations on physician ownership since outpatient surgery is not a designated health service (DHS)  Statute prohibits offer, solicitation, payment or receipt of remuneration if intent is to induce referrals of patients or other business paid for in whole or in part by a federal program  Includes certain exceptions, or Safe Harbors, that allow certain conduct that would otherwise violate the statute, one of which is  ASC Safe Harbor

21 ASC Valuation – In Practice Purposes for ASC Valuation (continued) ASC Safe Harbor  Protect opportunity for investment in ASCs by physicians who use the ASC as an “extension of practice”  4 Categories 1.100% surgeon-owned ASCs 2.Single-specialty ASCs 3.Multi-specialty ASCs 4.Hospital / Physician ASCs  Permitted Investors:  Physicians performing surgery that meet the “one-third” tests  Multi-specialty groups whose individual physicians all meet the requirements to invest individually  Physicians and others not employed by the ASC or an investor and are not in a position to make or influence referrals to the ASC or any of the investors

22 ASC Valuation – In Practice Purposes for ASC Valuation (continued) ASC Safe Harbor (continued)  “One-third tests”  One-third of practice income comes from ASC procedures (“one-third income test”) Not applicable to single-specialty ASC  One-third of physician’s ASC procedures performed at the subject ASC (“one-third procedures test”)  Investment returns must be directly proportional to capital investment  Safe Harbor does not consider investment at different times / prices  OIG Advisory views subsequent purchases at fair market value as reasonable basis  Not all, and perhaps not even a majority, of ASCs fit in the safe harbor

23 ASC Valuation – In Practice Primary Drivers of Value ASC Inputs Analysis  Revenues  Case volumes analysis  Net revenue per case analysis Net revenue per case varies widely by specialty Impact of reimbursement changes on net revenue per case varies widely by specialty  Operating expenses  Not complex  Largest components, staffing and supplies are mostly variable  Need to determine the ongoing sustainable EBITDA ● Benchmarking is helpful to understand opportunities and trends

24 ASC Valuation – In Practice Primary Drivers of Value (continued) Primary Drivers of Value = Revenues  Case volumes considerations  By physician – critical to understand where individual physician utilizers are at in respective practices Risk associated with wide vs. narrow distribution of physicians Physicians approaching end of productive path  By specialty – critical to understand changes in operating expenses and reimbursement Growth associated with lower revenue or higher revenue specialties  By payor type – critical to understand impact of changes in reimbursement, particularly Medicare Impact of transitioning from out-of-network to in-network with commercial/managed care payors

25 ASC Valuation – In Practice Primary Drivers of Value (continued) Primary Drivers of Value = Revenues (continued)  Reimbursement considerations  Impact of changes in Medicare reimbursement Largest negative impact GI Pain Largest positive impact General Surgery OB/GYN Orthopedics ENT  Impact of Workers Comp reform in many states  Impact of transition from out-of-network to in-network  OON is NOT valued the same as In Network reimbursement by most buyers

26 ASC Valuation – In Practice Primary Drivers of Value (continued) Medicare ASC reimbursement rate impact

27 ASC Valuation – In Practice Primary Drivers of Value (continued) Out of network reimbursement impact  Timing – immediate vs. future  Converting to in-network likely impacts volumes as well  Consider impact on operating expenses  Similar impact on reimbursement if a joint venture ASC is receiving hospital or hospital-like reimbursement

28 ASC Valuation – In Practice Valuations of a Controlling Interest National ASC companies generally price transactions as a multiple of EBITDA  Generally 7.0x + less Debt  Before applying the multiple, EBITDA may be adjusted for projected changes in reimbursement  Medicare  Transition from out-of-network to in-network May also take into account change in volumes associated with this transaction  Not in all cases, but in most, the national ASC companies get a management contract for management fees that are typically 5% to 7% of net revenues

Valuations of a Non-Controlling Equity Interest Converting the value indication for a controlling interest in an ASC to a non-controlling equity interest requires consideration for the somewhat unique provisions typically included in the operating / ownership agreements  No management fee  Most ASCs not only make regular distributions of virtually all distributable cash but are often required to do so  Provisions to buy or sell ownership interests at fair market value or based on a formula such as 3.0 to 5.0x EBITDA less debt  Non-compete agreements  Physician owners actively participate in clinical and operational management  Physicians are not only owners but customers 29 ASC Valuation – In Practice

30 ASC Valuation – In Practice Considerations for Hospitals Acquiring ASCs Valuations of ASCs historically operated as a department of a hospital (HOPD) – much less relevant today than 2 years ago  Historical financial data may require a great deal of adjustment  Revenues converted to free-standing levels  Operating expenses presented on hospital department income statements usually not all inclusive and at the same time may include a number of complex cost accounting allocations  Some case volume not eligible for performance post-conversion to free- standing facility  Complexities in reflecting conversion to a free-standing entity while at the same time, not anticipating the change in ownership when projecting earnings / cash flows  Consideration for potential competition

31 ASC Valuation – In Practice Considerations for Hospitals Acquiring ASCs (continued) Valuations of ASCs being purchased for the purposes of converting to HOPD – more relevant today than 2 years ago  Often involve marginal or underperforming centers but not always the case  Physicians and operators understand the potential impact on reimbursement  May be pressure from all sides to move toward Investment Value standard  Historical financial data should be used as is  Revenues in the valuation remain at free-standing levels  Operating expenses considered in the valuation should reflect continuing operations  Usually inappropriate for FMV – but hospital’s business case should consider impact on volumes  Reliance on Cost Approach not at all uncommon – consider relevant intangibles such as CON, Development Fees, Licensing, etc.

32 What Does the Future Hold? Summary  Continued Consolidation in the Industry  Increased Hospital involvement in the ASC Industry  Industry Participants should Expect Reduced Reimbursement  Completely Independent ASCs will have Greater Risk Exposure  As a Low Cost Provider, ASCs will Have a Place at the Table

33 Questions Aaron Murski Senior Manager