When to Invest in a Micro-neighborhood Using metrics to determine when neighborhoods are on the cusp of commercial revitalization (working title) Chad Shuskey (8/4/15)

When to Invest? | Neighborhood Commercial Cycle time place/people favorable data local national local / national Investor emerging neighborhood

too early? too late? When to Invest? | Timing

When to Invest? 1.How do you prove a market is ready before there are obvious signs? 2. What metrics can an investor follow to determine when they should invest in a micro-neighborhood? 3. Is there a tipping point? Investor = small (or micro) business, entrepreneur / start-up or small developer

When to Invest? | The Opportunity By determining the next growth areas investors can make more knowledgeable real estate decisions to determine the next location to open a business. Economic development organizations can help facilitate and spur growth in these targeted neighborhoods Governments can better utilize incentives or services to help these identified areas gain their own momentum.

Sample Study | Emerging Markets > 50% 20 – 50% 10 – 20% < 10% Poverty Rates National Mall

Sample Study | Rhode Island Avenue, NE 2300 block of Rhode Island Avenue, NE (2009)

2300 block of Rhode Island Avenue, NE (2014) Sample Study | Rhode Island Avenue, NE

2010 v 2014 $8.60 PSF rent increase $17,000+ annual difference (assuming 2,000 SF tenant) Sample Study | Rhode Island Avenue, NE

2012/13 v 2014 $21 PSF v $24 PSF ~$6,000 annual difference (assuming 2,000 SF tenant) New Business Openings | 2000–2400 block of Rhode Island Avenue, NE Sample Study | Rhode Island Avenue, NE

Building Permits Issued | 2000–2400 block of Rhode Island Avenue, NE 286 avg. 412 avg. Sample Study | Rhode Island Avenue, NE

When to Invest? 1.How do you prove a market is ready before there are obvious signs? 2. What metrics can an investor follow to determine when they should invest in a micro-neighborhood? 3. Is there a tipping point? Investor = small (or micro) business, entrepreneur / start-up or small developer

Approach | Site Criteria Micro-neighborhood Criteria 4. Stable housing stock 1. Two – five block commercial corridor 2. Minimum of 3 new business openings/commitments since Lack of Metrorail Access

Approach | Data Demographics education attainment, household incomes and age distribution Real Estate home sales, building permit activity, tax delinquent properties, rent Crime type of crime / perception of safety Business Environment zoning, liquor license caps/moratoriums, neighborhood advocate Transportation Metrobus, Capital Bikeshare Trendsetters (i.e. pioneers)

Approach | Data - Surveys Select Questions 1. When did you open at your current location (month/year)? 2. Was this a relocation, expansion or first-time business? 3. Please select the relevance that each factor impacted your current location Not at All | Weak Relationship | Moderate Relationship | Strong Relationship Real Estate Costs (e.g. rent, mortgage) Customer Parking Perception of Safety Neighborhood Advocate X Trendsetter Business 4. What is your current base rent (NNN)

Preliminary Observations, Assumptions & Challenges GIS analytical models by themselves will not suffice visual inspection, surveys, data “smell test” Data Acquisition historical data Data relevance what can we learn from the dataset? Are patterns really there (e.g. business licenses are issued every 2 years) Geographical limitations of data Census block groups, Census tracts, zip codes, point level data

GIS Challenges

Questions/Comm ents When to Invest in a Micro-neighborhood Using metrics to determine when neighborhoods are on the cusp of commercial revitalization Chad Shuskey (8/4/15)