Northwest Power and Conservation Council Achievability Issues Conservation Resources Advisory Committee March 12, 2009

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 Outline How Achievability is Used & Calculated How Achievability is Used & Calculated Consequences of Assumptions Consequences of Assumptions Interaction with Stock Estimates Interaction with Stock Estimates Near-Term Penetration Assumptions Near-Term Penetration Assumptions Long-Term Penetration Assumptions Long-Term Penetration Assumptions

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 3 How Achievability is Used Conservation Resources Generating Resources Prices for Fuel, Capital, CO2, Siting, … Load Demand Response Imports Similarly Reliable & Available Resource Options Reliability Constraints Regional Portfolio Model Develops Plans & Analyzes Cost & Risk for Plans (Plans are Amount and Timing of Resource Decisions) Time-Dependent Cost & Availability

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 4 Consequences: Near-Term Achievability Penetration Near-Term Achievability Penetration –Acts as Practical Limit on Deployment –Impacts Near-Term Targets –Impacts Risk-Mitigation Premium »Higher Cost-Effective Limit for Lost-Opportunity Long-Term Achievability Long-Term Achievability –Recognizes Can’t Get it All –Retain 85% Max Penetration for 6 th Plan »Some Less (HPWH, Solar PV, Set-Top, LED Sign)

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Non-Lost Opportunity How Achievability is Calculated Remaining Stock Estimate (or Technical Potential) Achievable Penetration Lost Opportunity Long-Term Achievable over 20 Years Near-Term Penetration Rates Year by Year Maximum Penetration

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 6 Limited to Annual Stock or Unit Availability Limited to Remaining Stock 2029 Systems & Equipment with Slow Turnover Rates (e.g. windows) Replacement Systems & Equipment (Driven by Stock Turnover Rates) Lost-Opportunity & Retrofit Stock Estimates Lost-Opportunity Conservation Incremental Cost & Savings Compared to New Baseline Retrofit Conservation Incremental Cost & Savings Compared to Retrofit Baseline Existing Building Stock not addressed by turnover (e.g. weatherization) New Homes, Buildings & Equipment (Driven by Population Growth & Equip Saturation)

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Applicable Stock Estimates Estimates are Measure-Specific & Interactive Estimates are Measure-Specific & Interactive Lost-Opportunity Lost-Opportunity –New Stock »Function of Population & Employment & Economy –Replacement Equipment »Function of equipment turnover & remodel rates »Ex: Lighting system turnover rate higher in Retail than Schools Retrofit Retrofit –Existing Stock –Minus Demolition & Conversion & Replacement –Plus New & Replacement not addressed as Lost-Opps

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 Applicable Stock Estimate Example

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 5 th Plan Achievable Penetration Rates Lost-Opportunity Conservation Retrofit Conservation Ramp 15% to Max 85% in 12 Years (Ramp Up 14 MWa to 85 MWa per Limited to 120 MWa per Year Based on High Historical Performance Max 85%

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 10 Developing 6 th Plan Achievable Penetration Rates Two Approaches Historic Perspective Historic Perspective –Recent Regional Performance Forward-Looking Forward-Looking –Build from Bottom Up –Measure-by-Measure Penetration Rates

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 11 Near-Term Achievability Historic Perspective Program Performance Program Performance Pace of Codes & Standards Pace of Codes & Standards Periodic Survey of Current Stock Periodic Survey of Current Stock Forward Looking Considers Character of Measures Implementation Strategies Size & Cost Physical Availability of Equipment Training & Education Requirements

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 12 Historic Perspective BPA, Utility & NEEA Programs Averaged 150 MWa per year since 2001 Averaged 150 MWa per year since 2001 Over 200 MWa in 2007 Over 200 MWa in 2007 Probably >200 MWa in 2008 Probably >200 MWa in 2008 At $40-50 /MWh Avoided Costs At $40-50 /MWh Avoided Costs Codes & Standards One third of Savings since 1991 Large Long-Term Potential Near-Term Impact Limited by New Stock Additions & Turnover Rates

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Forward-Looking Use a Bottom-Up Approach to Estimate Penetration Rates Estimate Annual Penetration Rates by Measure Bundle Estimate Annual Penetration Rates by Measure Bundle Distinguish Features that Impact Penetration Rate Distinguish Features that Impact Penetration Rate –Complexity of Measures –Delivery Mechanisms & Decision Makers –Current Market Saturation –Equipment & Infrastructure Availability –Subject to Code or Standard –Size & Cost (Annual Penetration Rate) x (Annual Units) x (Unit Savings) (Annual Penetration Rate) x (Annual Units) x (Unit Savings) Then Sum of All Measure-Level Supply Curves by Year & Levelized Cost bin Then Sum of All Measure-Level Supply Curves by Year & Levelized Cost bin

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Penetration Rate “Families” Lost-Opportunity Lost-Opportunity –Emerging Technology –LO Slow –LO Medium –LO Fast Retrofit –New Measure –In 20 Years –In 10 Years –In 5 Years

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 15 Family of Lost-Opportunity Penetration Rates

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 16 Family of Retrofit Penetration Rates

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 17 Residential Lost-Opportunity Achievable Penetration Rate Themes LO Slow Refrigerators Refrigerators Freezers Freezers Cooking Cooking Heat Pump Upgrades Heat Pump Upgrades Elec Furnace to HP Conversions Elec Furnace to HP Conversions LO Medium Clothes Washer Dishwasher Clothes Dryer Shell & Window Measures Window AC Units About 540 MWa by 2029 About 340 MWa by 2029 LO Emerging Technology Heat Pump Water Heater Heat Pump Water Heater Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Gravity Film Heat Exchanger About 600 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 18 Residential Retrofit Achievable Penetration Rate Themes Retro in 5 Years Showerheads Showerheads Lighting Lighting Retro in 15 Years Weatherization HVAC Conversions About 240 MWa by 2029 About 750 MWa by 2029 New Measure Ramp-Up Solar DHW Solar DHW Solar PV Solar PV About 610 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 19 Commercial Lost-Opportunity Achievable Penetration Rate Themes LO Fast Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Lighting Controls Lighting Controls Premium HVAC Equipment Premium HVAC Equipment Variable-Speed Chillers Variable-Speed Chillers Glass – New & Replacement Glass – New & Replacement Simple HVAC Measures – New Simple HVAC Measures – New Package Refrigeration Equip Package Refrigeration Equip Exterior Building Lighting Exterior Building Lighting Street & Roadway Lighting - New Street & Roadway Lighting - New LO Medium Integrated Building Design Daylighting Complex HVAC Measures Street & Roadway Lighting - Repl Parking Lighting Signage About 740 MWa by 2029 About 180 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 20 Commercial Retrofit Achievable Penetration Rate Themes Retro in 10 Years Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Lighting Controls Lighting Controls Glass – Retrofit Glass – Retrofit Simple HVAC Measures Simple HVAC Measures Insulation Insulation DCV Restaurant Hoods DCV Restaurant Hoods Computer Servers & IT Computer Servers & IT Retro in 20 Years Controls Commissioning Complex Complex HVAC Measures Grocery Refrigeration Network PC Controls Sewage Treatment Water Supply About 180 MWa by 2029 About 350 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 21 Industrial Lost-Opportunity Achievable Penetration Rate Themes LO Fast Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Lighting Controls Lighting Controls LO Medium Material Handling Motor Rewind About 70 MWa by 2029 About 60 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 22 Industrial Retrofit Achievable Penetration Rate Themes Retro in 10 Years Compressed Air Measures Compressed Air Measures Centrifugal Fans Centrifugal Fans Belts Belts Transformers Transformers Refrigeration & Food Storage Refrigeration & Food Storage Chip Fab Measures Chip Fab Measures Retro in 20 Years Fan & Pump Optimization Premium Fan & Pump Equip Pulp & Paper Equipment About 250 MWa by 2029 About 170 MWa by 2029 New Measure Ramp-Up (?) Plant Energy Management Plant Energy Management Energy Project Management Energy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy Management Integrated Plant Energy Management About 250 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 23 Agriculture Retrofit Achievable Penetration Rate Retro in 10 Years Scientific Irrigation Systems Scientific Irrigation Systems Irrigation Hardware Irrigation Hardware Dairy Dairy About 110 MWa

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 24 Distribution System Retrofit Achievable Penetration Rate New Measure Ramp-Up Medium Line Drop Compensation Line Drop Compensation VAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, & Feeder Load Balancing VAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, & Feeder Load Balancing Substation Voltage Regulators & Select Re-Conductoring Substation Voltage Regulators & Select Re-Conductoring End-of Line Voltage Control Regulators End-of Line Voltage Control Regulators About 420 MWa by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 25 Initial Results Bottom Up Lost-Opportunity Supply Curve

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 26 Initial Results: Bottom Up Retrofit Supply Curve

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 27 End

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 28 Reference Slides Residential Measures Residential Measures Commercial Measures Commercial Measures Industrial Measures Industrial Measures ALL NUMBERS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION!

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 29 Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Heating, Lighting and Appliance Supply Curve

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 30 Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Space Conditioning Supply Curve

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 31 Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Potential by End Use by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 32 Building-Related Measures Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 33 Equipment-Related Measures Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

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Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 37 Industrial Bundles

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 38 Savings By Industry

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 39 Industrial Supply Curve

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 40 Industrial Measures