Nile River Basin – Case Study Elaine B. Darby CE 397 Fall 2005

The Basin Blue Nile Sudd Swamp White Nile Nile

Basin Population Ten Riparian States –Egypt –Sudan –Ethiopia –Uganda –Rwanda –Tanzania –Kenya –D.R. Congo –Eritrea –Burundi

Issues in the Nile Basin Ethiopia Generates 85% water reaching Egypt’s Aswah Dam Second most populated riparian state “The Single most important strategic interest is striving to attain food security in a chronically famine-prone region…and all scenarios [involve] more intense use of the western Nile watershed” Waterbury Sudan 60% of Land Mass in Basin Sudd Swamp – Evap loss of 50% of all Water in White Nile Civil war Historically always sided with Egypt in Nile Issues Egypt 96% of population live in Nile Delta/Basin Entirely dependent on Nile waters – Only 4% from underground reserves Considered the most powerful riparian state in basin

Unique Issues to Nile Basin Historic precedence –Colonial and Egyptian control Egypt and Northern Sudan do not contribute to water generation in the Nile Majority of the riparian states became independent nations since the 1960’s Political and economic basis weak

International Agreements 1899 Anglo-Egyptian –No water withdrawn upstream of Egypt without Egyptian and British consent 1929 – Egyptian and British Agreement –British represented Kenya, Tanzania and Sudan –93% water of Nile allocated to Egypt, 7% to Sudan –All upstream projects approved by Egypt 1959 – Egypt and Sudan –75% to Egypt, 25% to Sudan –Rejected by all of the other riparian states when they became independent

Water Allocation in the Basin

Riparian States Interests Status Quo –Egypt –Uganda New Allocations –Ethiopia –Sudan –Eritrea Indifferent –Kenya, Tanzania, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi

Current Situations “The ultimate nightmare for Egypt would be for Ethiopia and the Sudan to overcome their domestic obstacles to development and to examine their shared interests in joint development of the watershed…given Ethiopian and Sudanese regional behavior in the 1990’s, Egypt need not lose sleep”. – Waterbury, 2002, The Nile Basin

How do you allocate the water in the Nile?

Beaumont’s Proposal 50/50 Historical/Generation Proposed Allocation

“Equitable and Reasonable” Beaumont (1997) – 50% generation/50% historical usage (MCM) Allocation- Generation Allocation- HistoricalTotalCurrentChange Egypt Ethiopia Sudan

Brichier-Colomba (1996) 33% weight to each factor Population of Riparian’s country in Basin Riparian's Area of Basin Average amount of water used

Brichier-Colomba (1996) 33% weight to each factor Population of Riparian’s country in Basin Riparian's Area of Basin Average amount of water used Norm alized Proposed TotalCurrentChange Egypt94%13%76%54.0% Ethiopia50%14%0%19.2% Sudan10%60%24%26.8%

What factors do you think should considered for allocations in the Nile Basin?

Waterbury’s Criteria Equal Weighting for each factor The proportion of water flowing across a riparian's border to the total discharge of the water course The proportion of the ripairan's total population living in the basin The total amount of irrigable land that could be farmed with watercourse water without extra-basin transfers The amount of alternative, utilizable water available in aquifers, regionally appropriate rainfall and stored water (deductions) A basin needs per cap allocation to protect life and basic health An allocation necessary to protect existing wetland and nature's "use rights"

What’s Happening in the Basin?

Recent History of Cooperation 1992 – Council of Ministers of Water Affairs (Nile-COM) – all ten riparian states represented 1995 – Nile River Basin Action Plan – develop a co-operative framework for management of the Nile – endorsed by all

Nile Basin Initiative Goal: To achieve sustainable socioeconomic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from the common resources Objectives: –Develop water resources in a sustainable and equitable way to ensure prosperity, security and peace for all its people –To ensure efficient water management and optimal use –To ensure cooperation and joint action between states –To target poverty eradication and promote economic integration –To ensure the program results in a move from planning to action

Recent Cooperation – cont… 1997 World Bank agrees to play a lead role in coordinating external finances 1997 – Egypt announces (unilaterally) New Nile Valley Development 1998 Shared Vision Plan of NBI – developed 1999 Approved list of priority projects/Nile Basin Initiative formally established (legal status for NBI)

New Valley – South Egypt Development Plan 1997 – New Valley Plan Announced Add approx. 49 million acres of irrigated lands New Canal to provide water from the Nile Strongly opposed by Ethiopian government

Recent Developments, cont – Sub-Basin agreements between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia –Agreement to build dams and expand irrigation within Ethiopia with the plan to sell power to Sudan and Egypt Sept. 28, 2005 – Largest ever dam to be built in Ethiopia at Kara Dobe on the Awash River with Sudan and Egypt providing financial support

Nile Basin Initiatives 2001 Shared Vision Plans formulated 2002 – 2005 Goals and Funding plans approved 2005 Applied Training Programs begin

Shared Vision Project Portfolio Applied Training Nile Transboundary Environmental Action Nile Basin Regional Power Trade Water for Agriculture Water Resources Planning and Management Confidence-Building and Stakeholder Involvement Socio-economic Development and Benefit Sharing

Questions for Discussion Peter Beaumont, proposes a water allocation scheme to fit the “equitable and reasonable” call in the 1997 UN Convention on a 50% generation/50% historical split. Do you feel this is applicable to the Nile River Basin? (Reference pages 486 – 488 and pages 491 – 494). In contrast to the Egyptian’s Century Storage Scheme of 1946 the Nile Basin Initiative did not start with specific water projects, but rather education, development of skilled personnel and inclusiveness of all stakeholders. Will this work? What do you think will be the primary factors in achieving development in a reasonable time frame? Or is the lack of specific projects in the NBI causing individual countries to move forward with building projects?