Bukola Johnson LUMA-GIS, Sweden

 Objectives  Background  Datasets  Methodology  Results  Conclusion

E Effective planning and management of finite natural resources for sustainable development in Lake Victoria Region

 Lake Victoria: World’s 2 nd largest fresh water body  Surface boundary: Tanzania (49%), Uganda (45%) and Kenya(6%)  Economic contribution worth USD 3-4 billion annually  Sustenance for 25 million people (1/3 of the region population)  Economic activities:  Agriculture (Tea and Coffee plantation) & Fishing,  Source of water for industry & Transportation,  Recreation &Tourists attraction

Adm. Boundaries: Shape files for Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda from FAO Africover Shape file for Lake Victoria region (3 countries) from UNEP Climate Precipitation data for Africa in text (ASCII) format Peer- reviewed journal (New et al, 2002) DEM Two tiles from GTOPO30 E020N40.DEM covering Kenya and Uganda E020S10.DEM covering SE of Tanzania Land cover/ Land use IGBP raster in.bsq format for Africa. Population Raster files (.TIF format) for Africa population(1990 and 2000) from UNEP Protected Areas Personal Geodatabase (.mdb) for Africa from UNEP & World Conservation Union

 Conceptual planning and modeling.  Data previewed in Arc Catalog  Convert data to ESRI GRID format  Define data projection  Re-project data to WGS84 and Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection  The Study Area clipped from the Africa dataset.  Loading project data in Personal Geodatabase  Data Analysis

Country Area (Sq. Km) Population Yr Population Yr Annual GR (%) Kenya ,536,27823,465, Tanzania ,522,94425,782, Uganda ,961,63417,582, Table 1: Population Growth in Lake Victoria Region

Land coverKenya%Tanzania%Uganda% Forest Shrubland Savanna Grassland Permanent Wetland Croplands Urban and built-up Barren and Sparsely vegetated Water Bodies Total Table 2: Land Cover Statistics for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda

CountryPop 2000 Area of Cropland Pop 2030 Area of Cropland Required Additional Cropland Kenya30,536,27822,847916,101, ,244662,397 Tanzania34,522,94497,002950,153,040 2,669,9302,572,928 Uganda22,961,63461,729774,384,990 2,081,5472,019,818 Table 3: Additional Cropland for Population in Year 2030

 Crop needs sufficient and effective rain to grow and produce yields.  Croplands were located in the region with middle range precipitation.  Croplands were found around Lake Victoria.

 The croplands situated where the elevation relatively low.  In high elevation, rain water essential for productivity runs off.

 Croplands are largely located in elevation range of

 Finite natural resources with competing demands.  Sufficient rainfall in the region with Lake Victoria as a reservoir.  Biophysical constraint such as topography that affect land use.  Elevation influences geographical distribution of croplands.  The mean annual population growth rate is about 3% for the region.  Attendant decline in cropland per capita with population growth.

To ensure food security and social development:  Implement landuse regulation  Convert parts of forest land to croplands  Exploit species and hybrid plants with high yield and short maturity time  Promote Family Planning to control population explosion.