A RELATIVELY SLUGGISH RECOVERY EXPECTED IN 2010 Presented by Dan Meckstroth Chief Economist

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Presentation transcript:

A RELATIVELY SLUGGISH RECOVERY EXPECTED IN 2010 Presented by Dan Meckstroth Chief Economist

Widespread Excess Capacity in Manufacturing Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Source: Federal Reserve Board Capacity Utilization By Industry IndustryPercent Chg. Dec Oct Primary metal Machinery Motor vehicles/parts Wood product Fabricated metal Plastics/rubber Computer/electronic Paper Aerospace Electric power Mining Chemical Petroleum/coal prds Food8281

Global Exports Bottoming Out United States and World Exports of Goods, Inflation-Adjusted Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Nonfinancial Corporations Have Surplus Cash Nonfarm Nonfinancial Financing Gap* Source: Federal Reserve Board *Capital expenditures less the sum of US internal funds and inventory valuation adjustment

Diverging Business Investment Patterns in 2010 Business Investment, Inflation-Adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model F=Forecast

Nonresidential Construction Continues To Decline Nonresidential Construction TypePercent Change Nonresidential Structures Commercial and Health Care Manufacturing Other Structures Construction By Type Source: Left – U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Right – MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model

Most Industries Are In Recession Phase Relative To One Year Ago Source: MAPI Cyclical Position of Business Investment Industries in Third Quarter 2009

Capital Equipment Industries Were Pulled Into Recession Percent Change Industry Industry Elec. Equip. except Appliances-1229 Metalworking Machinery Architec. & Structural Metals-18-93Industrial Machinery Construction Machinery-2818 Commercial, Service & Other Engines & Turbines-29124Forging & Stamping Agricultural Equipment-9-35 Aerospace Products & Parts128 Drilling Equipment-21-64Ship & Boat Building-13-2 Source: Federal Reserve Board, MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model Investment-Related Manufacturing Production

Forward-Looking Manufacturing Indicators Improve Manufacturing Production and Purchasing Managers’ Production Indexes Source: Federal Reserve Board, Institute for Supply Management

U.S., Japanese, and Canadian Manufacturing Recovering From Severe Recession Industrial Production By Country Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI Industrial Production By Country CountryPercent Change United States-10+4 Canada-12+2 Japan-22+11

Asia Outside Japan Leads Manufacturing Recovery Industrial Production By Region Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI Industrial Production By Region RegionPercent Change Euro Zone-14+3 Asia ex. Japan+6+10 Latin America-7+5

A Severe Global Recession Followed By Strong Initial Recovery World Industrial Production Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, MAPI World Industrial Production