Are Public Power Utilities the More Cost Effective and Less Risky Solution for Renewable Energy Based Power Generation? Mohamed Mostafa El-Khayat New and.

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Presentation transcript:

Are Public Power Utilities the More Cost Effective and Less Risky Solution for Renewable Energy Based Power Generation? Mohamed Mostafa El-Khayat New and Renewable Energy Authority, NREA – Egypt LAS - Cairo, April 23-24, 2012

- Introduction - Current Situation of Renewable Energy - Financing Resources - Investment Risks - Needs of Public Power Utilities CONTENTS a) Effective Governmental Role b) Availability of Local Financing Schemes c) Effective Development Agencies d) Understanding Policy Life Cycle a) Effective Governmental Role b) Availability of Local Financing Schemes c) Effective Development Agencies d) Understanding Policy Life Cycle - Wrap-up of Key Messages

مــقدمــة Introduction

مــقدمـة  شركات المرافق العامة هى أحد آليات تنفيذ برامج الطاقة المتجددة وليست كل شئ.  لشركات المرافق العامة العاملة فى الطاقة المتجددة دور هام فى حفز شركات القطاع الخاص على الاستثمار فى هذه المجالات.  قد تنشأ شركات المرافق العامة مشروع ما لأغراض اجتماعية أو سياسية، وبالتالى لا تنظر لجانب الربح، ويتطلب نموذج العمل الصحيح تعويض هذه الشركات عما خسرته نتيجة تنفيذ هذا النوع من المشروعات، بحيث تحافظ على دخل شبه ثابت من تنفيذ المشروعات،  عدم تعويض الشركات العامة يؤدى إلى تدنى القدرة المالية وعدم القدرة على دعم موزاناتها ذاتيا، ومن هذا المنطلق يجب أن ننظر للشركات العامة على أنها شركات خاصة تملكها الدولة. Introduction: - Power public utilities is one of the mechanisms to achieve RE projects. - Power public utilities has an important role to catalyze private sector to invest in RE. - Power public utilities could establish a project for social aspects, regardless its profitability, consequently public utilities should be compensated to keep a reasonable income. - We have to deal with public utilities as a private companies owned by the state.

مــقدمـة  يبحث المستثمر عن الشروط الميسرة التي تتميز بانخفاض نسبة الفائدة وطول فترة السداد.  يعبر النمو السريع لتقنيات الطاقة المتجددة عن قدرتها على تنفيذ السياسات التى وضعت من أجلها سواء من حيث الاعتبارات البيئية أو الاقتصادية والتى تشمل :  الاستدامة،  إعادة هيكلة سياسات الطاقة،  منع انبعاث غازات الصوبة الزجاجية،  توزيع التوليد وتنويع مصادره،  زيادة القدرات المركبة،  تأمين مصادر الطاقة،  تطوير الصناعات الجديدة،  إيجـاد فرص عمل جديدة،  تطوير المناطق الريفية،  عدم اللجوء لتكنولوجيا بعينها ( مثل الطاقة النووية )  تخفيف الضغط على الوقود ( صعوبة الحصول على الوقود، ارتفاع تكاليف الاستخراج،...)  زيادة إنتاجية المصـادر المتجددة. Introduction: - Investors seek soft loan (low interest rate and long repayment period). - The high growth rate of renewable energy technologies reflects its ability to perform its goals which could include: - Sustainability - Reform of energy policies - Abatement of GHGs - Distribute Generation sources - increase installed capacity - Energy security - Local manufacturing - Develop rural areas - Decrease dependency on fossil fuel - increase share of RE

مــقدمـة  تتشابه آليات تمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة مع غيرها من الاستثمارات.  يحتاج تمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة إلى آليات وتشريعات تختلف طبقا لمراحل نمو سوق الطاقة المتجددة  قد تمثل السياسات والتشريعات المطبقة فى بعض البلدان عائق أمام نمو التكنولوجيات المتجددة المنافسة، فبعض أسواق الطاقة المتجددة تتبنى سياسات من قبيل :  دعم الوقود الإحفورى  وضع أهداف شاملة للطاقة المتجددة دون تحديد نصيب كل مصدر  تدابير غير واضحة Introduction: - The finance sector approaches investments in renewable energy in the same manner as any other investments. - Renewable energy investments require an additional level of understanding. These include the influence of policy and regulation on the viability of an investment, including the legal basis and durability of any subsidies, grants, tradable certificates or tax credits. - Renewable Energy pitfalls include: - Subsidy of fossil fuels - Cross-Cutting Objectives - Unclear measures

Policy Pitfalls ? 1- Governments should support either renewable energy or bread!! مــقدمـة Introduction:

Policy Pitfalls 2- Post is more secured than s, or s are faster than post. مــقدمـة Introduction:

المشهد الراهن للطاقة المتجددة Current Situation of Renewable Energy

Selected Indicators, 2008, 2009, & 2010 Source: Current Situation of Renewable Energy

Source:  20% Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production, 2010 Current Situation of Renewable Energy.. Cont.

Small Distributed Capacity Source: UNEP Global New Investment in Renewable Energy, 2004 – 2010, ($bn) Current Situation of Renewable Energy.. Cont.31%

Source: UNEP Financial New Investment and SDC in Renewable Energy by Technology, 2010, and Growth on 2009 ($bn) Current Situation of Renewable Energy

Source: Total Global Investment in Renewable Energy, 2010 Current Situation of Renewable Energy.. Cont.

مصــادر التمـويل Financing Resources

Public Public Private partnership, PPP. Private Financing Resources Partnerships

Source: UNEP Global Transaction in Renewable Energy by 2010 ($bn) VC: Venture Capital PE: Public Equity, SDC: Small Distributed Capacity RD&D: Research, Development, and Demonstration. R&D: Research and Development. M&A: Merge and Acquisition. Financing Resources

US$ 90 bn (2006) US$ 129 bn (2007) US$ 130 bn (2008) US$ 160 bn (2009) US$ 211 bn (2010) Renewable Energy Investments in Last Five Years Financing Resources ….. Cont.

مخــاطر الاستثمـار Investment Risks

Renewable Energy Investment Risks General Risks Legislative Risks Market Risks Technical Risks Investment Risks

General Risks Economic Risks Inflation Local Procedures Financial Risks Interest Rate Insurance Re- Investment Political Risks Instability Changing of Laws Investment Risks …. Cont.

Other Risks Legislative Risks Incentive Ambiguity Short - Term Lengthy Procedures Market Risks Current Energy Prices Incentives for RE Future Energy Prices Carbon Market Potential Competitors Investment Risks …. Cont.

Other Risks Technical Risks Technology Suitability Construction Risks Environmental Risks O&M Risks Investment Risks …. Cont.

متطلبات الشركات العامة للكهرباء Needs of Public Power Utilities

Needs of Public Power Utilities Effective Role of Government Availability of Local Financing Effective Development Agencies Clear Policy Life Cycle

Needs of Public Power Utilities … Cont. Needs of Public Power Utilities a) Effective Role of Government b) Availability of Local Financing c) Effective Development Agencies d) Clear Policy Life Cycle

دور حكومى فـاعل ومؤثر فى شكل : - وضع إطار عمل يعطى شركات المرافق حق الاستثمار في منتجات بيئية نظيفة. - عرض حزمة من الآليات تشمل حوافز واسعة النطاق وطويلة الأجل لضمان استمرار الطلب. - التنسيق بين الجهات المعنية - وضع تدابير لإيجاد طلب على الاستثمار مع الحد من مخاطره. - الالتزام بتنفيذ مشروعات طاقة متجددة بمعدلات سنوية ثابتة أو متزايدة. - تحرير السوق وإيجاد تنافسية حقيقية فى أسواق الكهرباء المحلية. Effective Governmental Role through the following: Set a framework gives public power utilities the ability to invest in clean technologies. Set bundle of attractive and effective policies. Coordinate between designated parties. Perform mechanisms to ensure investment demand. Implement renewable energy projects with an increasing rate. Energy market liberalization. a) Effective Role of Government

الشفافية Transparency التحديد الجيد للأهداف Well-defined Objectives تحديد المصادر والتكنولوجيات Defined Resources & Technologies تطبيق حوافز مناسبة Appropriately Applied Incentives الاستقرار Stability إصلاح سوق الطاقة Energy Market Reform تخطيط استخدام الأراضي Land-use Planning المساواة في المخاطر Equalizing the Risk Distribution Features of Successful Renewable Energy Markets a) Effective Role of Government …… Cont.

Needs of Public Power Utilities a) Effective Role of Government b) Availability of Local Financing c) Effective Development Agencies d) Clear Policy Life Cycle Needs of Public Power Utilities … Cont.

- يعد توفير التمويل اللازم لمشروعات الطاقة المتجددة أحد النقاط الرئيسية الداعمة لنشر تطبيقاتها، - تخصص الدول المتقدمة القروض الميسرة التي تتميز بانخفاض نسب فوائدها وطول فترات السداد لتمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة، - تعتمد أغلب الدول النامية على المنح والقروض الخارجية، وهو ما لا يمكن معه وضع خطط مستقبلية آمنة. - مع ضعف استثمارات الطاقة المتجددة بالدول النامية يحتاج القطاع إلي آليات تشجيع تتطلب تحقيق استقرار اقتصادي، وتوفير حرية التجارة وتطبيق سياسات استثمار جاذبة مع خفض مخاطر التمويل. b) Availability of Local Financing Availability of financing is a crucial issue for supporting renewable energy technologies. Developed countries assign soft loans for such projects. Most of developing countries are grant-or-foreign loans- dependent, which could not guarantee its future targets. Renewable energy sector in developing countries need economic stability, attractive policies, and low risk investment.

Needs of Public Power Utilities a) Effective Role of Government b) Availability of Local Financing c) Effective Development Agencies d) Clear Policy Life Cycle Needs of Public Power Utilities … Cont.

يمكن أن تقوم المؤسسات الإنمائية مثل البنوك والصناديق النقدية الوطنية بدور بارز في جمع المعلومات ذات الصلة بقطاع الطاقة المتجددة وإعدادها لتكون نواة للاستثمار المستقبلي، فعلى سبيل المثال، يمكن للمصارف :- بناء قواعد معلومات عن أسواق الطاقة النظيفة ومدي قدرة هذه البنوك في تمويلها وتقديم برامج تتميز بالمرونة في دعم كافة المشاركين في هذه السوق ( المستثمرين، الوسطاء، المستهلك ). تحسين قدرة البنوك على تقييم المخاطر بطريقة صحيحة ومناسبة علي غرار تلك المتبعة في أسواق العقارات وتمويل السيارات، ويمكن للبنوك أن تقلل من عوائق الاستثمار بأن تتحمل هذه المؤسسات - بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر - جزءاً من المخاطر الائتمانية الممثلة في ضمانات القروض. c) Effective Development Agencies Development Agencies; i.e. Banks, monetary funds, could perform a remarkable role through: Establish knowledge database about renewable energy technologies, and check its capabilities to finance these projects. Enhance banks ability to estimate investment risk based on correct basis to avoid obstacles.

بحث إمكانيات التعاون المشترك بين عدد من البنوك وصناديق الأموال الوطنية والدولية بهدف تخصيص رأس مال مشترك لتمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة على أسس التمويل الميسر. توفير تدابير ونفقات بناء القدرات البشرية للعاملين بها كأساس لتفهم هذه التكنولوجيات وتقدير مستوى المخاطر فى الاستثمار. c) Effective Development Agencies Check the availability to establish a joint venture between different banks “national/international” to finance renewable energy projects. Perform capacity building programs for its employees.

Needs of Public Power Utilities a) Effective Role of Government b) Availability of Local Financing c) Effective Development Agencies d) Clear Policy Life Cycle Needs of Public Power Utilities … Cont.

d) Clear Policy Life Cycle Market and operating regulation adaptation. Supporting technologies (e.g. power grids) Manage growth and policy cost Public acceptance Economic deployment support for mass market Priority market access Supply chain development Financing Targets Initial plants/large-scale demonstration Institutional and human capacity building Resources/cost, technology portfolio assessment Inception Take-off Consolidation Source: Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies (IEA, 2008)

ملخص Wrap-up of Key Messages

Wrap-up of Key Messages Source: Framework conditions for Investments in Wind Parks in Emerging and Developing Markets, Support Mechanisms 2- Financial Aspects 3- Non-Financial Aspects4- Grid Access

Source: Framework conditions for Investments in Wind Parks in Emerging and Developing Markets, Support Mechanisms 2- Financial Aspects 3- Non-Financial Aspects4- Grid Access  50% Wrap-up of Key Messages

لا توجد سياسة محددة تملك حل إسار الطاقة المتجددة ولكن يجب أن نراعى طبيعة وخصوصية كل دولة. علينا أن نعى أن الطاقة المتجددة ليست أمرا يعنى الحكومات وحدها، بل علينا أن ننقلها إلى المواطنين سواء على مستوى الاستخدام أو تصنيع مكوناتها ذات التكنولوجيا البسيطة. تعد التنمية المستدامة أحد أهدافنا المستقبلية، وعلينا أن نتذكر أن الطاقة المتجددة هى أحد الطرق المختصرة لتحقيقها وأيضا للوصول إلى اقتصاد أخضر. لا يمكن البدء بتطوير مشروعات طاقة متجددة على أسس صحيحة دون هيكلة حقيقية وصحيحة للجهات المعنية، No magic recipe for RE. Tailored policies are needed. Understand that RE is not a matter for Governments only, but we need to move it to citizens level, either for using it or manufacturing its simple systems. SD is one of our targets and we have to know that RE is one of the real roads to reach it and also greening our economy. Wrap-up of Key Messages

البحث عن آليـات تمويل وشراكات جديدة تتميز بانخفاض حد المخاطر، وتحقيق عوائد مقبولة، وعليه فقد تكون الشراكة بين القطاعين العام والخاص أحد هذه الآليات. التمويل الوطنى هو أحد الروافد الضرورية لتمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة يمكن للبنوك وصناديق التمويل الوطنية دراسة تمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة من خلال الدخول كشريك فى الاستثمار إلى جانب الإقراض. دراسة مدى إمكانية الإعلان عن صكوك Sukuk خضراء لتمويل مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة فى المنطقة العربية. Look for new financial mechanisms and partnerships enjoy with low risk and reasonable profitability. Consequently, Public Private Partnership, PPP, could be one of these mechanisms. National financing is a must. National banks could study its to support RE as a partner in addition to offering loans. Study availability of issuing Green Sukuk to finance RE projects. Wrap-up of Key Messages

تكلفة التأخر فى تنفيذ مشروعات الطاقة المتجددة أعلى بكثير من تكلفة الإنجاز. Cost of do-nothing is higher than cost of achievement.

Wrap-up of Key Messages No Comment!!!

شـكرا Thank You

تزدهر الحضــارة من جذور كثيرة.. وتماما تزدهـر أسواق الطـاقة من مصــادر عديدة Civilization can flourish from different roots.. Just booming of energy markets from many resources