Satellite Remote Sensing of Aviation Hazards Gary P. Ellrod, CCM* NOAA/NESDIS-retired Granby, CT Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur.

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Presentation transcript:

Satellite Remote Sensing of Aviation Hazards Gary P. Ellrod, CCM* NOAA/NESDIS-retired Granby, CT Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY * AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist

Outline Current capabilities of satellite data Current capabilities of satellite data Fog and low clouds Inflight icing Turbulence Thunderstorms (initiation, convective gusts) Volcanic ash Future improvements (GOES-R) Future improvements (GOES-R) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

U.S. Weather Satellites Polar (low orbit) (NOAA- 18 / METOP-A) Polar (low orbit) (NOAA- 18 / METOP-A) 1 km resolution 4 looks per day 6 channels Geostationary (GOES- 11/12) Geostationary (GOES- 11/12) 4 km IR, 1 km visible min frequency 5 channel Imager 19 channel Sounder (10 km), hourly over CONUS Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Nighttime Fog Detection Using GOES Multi-spectral Image Data Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Fog in the Northeast: 14 June 2001 Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

GOES Low Cloud Base Product Based on GOES and surface minus GOES cloud top temperatures (now available on AWIPS) Based on GOES 11  m-3.9  m and surface minus GOES cloud top temperatures (now available on AWIPS) Red areas show where cloud bases 1000 ft, blue are cirrus clouds.

Fog Depth Estimates Estimates of fog depth also possible based on temperature difference (to forecast burn off time) Estimates of fog depth also possible based on 11  m-3.9  m temperature difference (to forecast burn off time) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Snow Snow and Fog Using Visible Imagery Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Fog Discrimination with 3.9  m Imagery

GOES Icing Risk Product Multi-channel threshold technique Multi-channel threshold technique Merged with Sounder cloud top heights Product available hourly day and night Product available hourly day and night Strengths Strengths Good spatial, temporal coverage Good POD (~50-75%), low FAR (~25%) Weaknesses Weaknesses Obscuration by high clouds Unable to distinguish SLD regions Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

GOES Combined Icing + Cloud Tops (‘ICECAP’) Available at: Icing intensity (3=mod, 4=mod/sev), aircraft type, altitude (feet)

GOES Water Vapor + IR Winds Jet Stream Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Detection of Mountain Waves Using Water Vapor Imagery Low and mid-Tropospherice waves can be seen in GOES 6.7  m water Vapor imagery, but not in IR or visible GOES-12 IR, 13 Nov 2003 GOES-12 WV, 13 Nov 2003 Mountain Waves Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Total Column Ozone from GOES Sounder Stratospheric Intrusion Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Convective Initiation Critical for air traffic management Critical for air traffic management GOES Visible Imagery Applications (boundary interactions, stability, etc) GOES Visible Imagery Applications (boundary interactions, stability, etc) Stability and moisture Products from Sounder (Lifted Index, PW, Cinh) Stability and moisture Products from Sounder (Lifted Index, PW, Cinh) Automated Nowcast Products Automated Nowcast Products Convective Initiation (UW-CIMSS and U. of Alabama-Huntsville) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Convective Initiation (CI) Product (U. of Ala-Huntsvile/ U. of Wisconsin CIMSS) Uses satellite parameters to identify convective clouds: Uses satellite parameters to identify convective clouds: IR temp. change WV - IR temp. difference Cloud motion vectors to advect developing clouds, produce nowcast Cloud motion vectors to advect developing clouds, produce nowcast CI valid 2000Z, 4 May 2003 Radar, 2100Z, 4 May 2003

Wet Microburst Severity Index Uses GOES Sounder retrieval data Uses GOES Sounder retrieval data Based on instability and vertical distribution of moisture (CAPE, dθ e /dz) Based on instability and vertical distribution of moisture (CAPE, dθ e /dz) Correlates well with observed peak surface wind gusts Correlates well with observed peak surface wind gusts WMSI > 200 indicates wind gusts > 65 knots possible. 85 knot gusts were reported at Patuxent River, Maryland at 2100 UTC (*). * Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Composite “Split Window” Imagery Mt. Spurr, Sept. 1992, NOAA-AVHRR (Schneider et al 1992)

International Warning System (VAACs) Established by International Civil Aeronautical Organization (ICAO) in mid-1990’s Volcanically active regions source: Smithsonian Inst.

Technology Outlook Operational Spacecraft Near-Term Near-Term GOES-N (launched May 2006) through P Improved navigation, power to operate through satellite eclipse (Spring, Fall) Improved navigation, power to operate through satellite eclipse (Spring, Fall) Mid-Long Term Mid-Long Term NPOESS VIIRS imager (NPP prototype launch in 2010) Twenty-two bands at 370 to 740 m resolution Twenty-two bands at 370 to 740 m resolution Includes day/night visible Includes day/night visible Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Technology Outlook Operational Spacecraft Long-Term Long-Term GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (2015) Sixteen spectral bands Sixteen spectral bands Resolution: 0.5 km visible, 2 km IR Resolution: 0.5 km visible, 2 km IR Five minute CONUS, 15 min Full Disk Five minute CONUS, 15 min Full Disk GOES-R Lightning Mapper GOES Hyper-spectral Sounder - ???? Hyper-spectral capabilities, hourly global coverage Hyper-spectral capabilities, hourly global coverage Good resolution (4 km horizontal, ~1 km vertical) Good resolution (4 km horizontal, ~1 km vertical) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

22 ABI Improvements 1/5 Disc GOES-I/P 5 Minute Coverage GOES-R Full Disc ABI covers the earth approximately five times faster than the current Imager.

23 Imager Coverage in ~30 minutes Current Imager (Rapid Scan mode) Future Imager (“Flex” mode) Full Disk02 Northern Hemi1- CONUS36 Mesoscale060 Full DiskN. HemisphereCONUSMesoscale

IR Resolution – ABI versus GOES-12 Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Use of 1.6  m “Near-IR” on ABI 1.6  m

Simulated GOES-R Fog Image Based on AVHRR IR (3.7  m and 11.0  m) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

GOES-R Icing Product (NASA LARC) Explicit parameters from GOES (droplet size, liquid Water path) can estimate Potential icing severity

Simulated Water Vapor Imagery (Low, Mid, High) on ABI Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY Observed GOES-12 Band 3 (6.5 micron) Simulated ABI Band 9 (7.0 micron)

Automated Turbulence Detection – GOES-R Water Vapor ( U. of Wisconsin – CIMSS) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Simulated GOES-R Ash Image Based on MODIS IR, Near-IR, Visible Channels Volcanic ash (red) Volcanic ash (red) Composite of 8.5, 11, 12  m channels Land (green) Land (green) Near-IR (1.6  m) Ocean/ice clouds (blue) Ocean/ice clouds (blue) Visible (0.6  m) Popocatepetl, 20 Dec 2000, 1715 UTC Based on data from Terra MODIS Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Detects total strikes: in cloud, cloud to Day/night total lightning (in cloud, intra-cloud, and cloud to ground) –Compliments today’s land based systems that only measures cloud to ground (about 15% of the total lightning) Increased coverage over oceans and land –Currently no ocean coverage, and limited land coverage in dead zones Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Example from Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Supercell Storm

Simulations of Low vs High Spectral Resolution Retrievals Geo-I gets <1 K rms for 1 km T(p) and <10% rms for 2 km RH(p) Moisture Temperature Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

34 BT(K) Capability: Vertical Profiling Eye AIRS alone moisture AIRS alone temperature Eye Hyperspectral sounder on geo will provide rapid observations need to monitor hurricane eye temperature anomaly, which is a surrogate measurement of hurricane intensity Temperature and moisture cross section along AIRS scan line 119, demonstrating profiling capability, but AIRS does not provide the monitoring requirement BT(K) Analysis courtesy of Jun Li, CIMSS.

Summary Satellite remote sensing is critical in providing needed observations to support aviation warnings and forecasts Satellite remote sensing is critical in providing needed observations to support aviation warnings and forecasts Future instruments will provide excellent opportunities for improved products Future instruments will provide excellent opportunities for improved products Much work is needed to fully utilize future deluge of high quality data! Much work is needed to fully utilize future deluge of high quality data! Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Internet Resources: GOES Aviation Products (Imager and Sounder) (NESDIS) (NASA GHCC) (NRL-Monterey) GOES-R Information GOES-R Information (GOES Program Office) (UW-CIMSS) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY

Acknowledgments Slides obtained from: Slides obtained from: Brian Motta (COMET) Ken Pryor (NESDIS) Tim Schmit (NESDIS) William Smith, Jr. (NASA) Anthony Wimmers (UW-CIMSS) Kris Bedka (UW-CIMSS) Aviation Weather Users Workshop, Nov 18-19, 2008 Islip/Macarthur Airport, NY