Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forescasting Howard J. Singer, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Space Weather Workshop Boulder, CO May 2, 2008 Acknowledgments: Bonadonna, Donovan, Fuller-Rowell, Green, Hill, Kunches, Maus, Onsager, Viereck

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forescasting Presentation Outline: Introduction to space weather observations NOAA satellite programs: GOES, POES, NPOES, Solar Wind Monitoring Collaborating with the Space Weather and Space Science community The Future GOES 8-12 GOES NOP ACE STEREO CORS - GPS POES SOHO And More… Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Space Weather Observations Space Weather observations extend from the Sun to interplanetary space, to the magnetosphere and ionosphere/upper atmosphere. Space Weather observations support a growing and diverse user community: DoD, NASA, FAA, Industry, Commercial Service Providers, International … Space Weather observations are used: to specify and forecast the environment in models (drive, assimilate, and validate) for research Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Monitor, Measure and Specify: Data for Today’s Space Weather NASA STEREO (Ahead) Ground Sites Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) SOON Sites (USAF) RSTN (USAF) Telescopes and Magnetographs Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) GPS (CORS) SOHO (ESA/NASA) Solar EUV Images Solar Corona (CMEs) ESA/NASA SOHO ACE (NASA) Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles Vector Magnetic field L1 NASA ACE NOAA GOES NOAA POES STEREO (NASA) Solar Corona Solar EUV Images Solar wind Vector Magnetic field GOES (NOAA) Energetic Particles Magnetic Field Solar X-ray Flux Solar EUV Flux Solar X-Ray Images POES (NOAA) High Energy Particles Total Energy Deposition Solar UV Flux NASA STEREO (Behind) Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

SXI: A NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation GOES 8-12 Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array SXI: A NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership AF Funded GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan, EOL 6/14/07) (Launch: 4/25/97, South America Coverage) GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, Operational) GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational) GOES 10 Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation GOES 8-12 Current Instrument Issues: Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) GOES 12: Two proton channels not usable Using GOES 11 and GOES 10 All other particle sensors functioning on GOES 10, 11, and 12 Magnetometer (MAG) Functioning on GOES 10, 11, and 12 X-Ray Sensor (XRS) X-ray Positioner failed on GOES 11 and 12 Using GOES 10 Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 No longer functioning Current Spacecraft Status: GOES 11 (west) and GOES 12 (east): operatonal GOES 10 over South America: SWPC using XRS and Protons Satellite inclination increasing GOES 8-12 Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

GOES NOP: SEM Enhancement Summary GOES 13 Launch May 24, 2006 First of New Generation Magnetometer (MAG) Two instruments operating simultaneously Energetic Particle Sensors (EPS) Lower energy electron (30 keV) and proton (80 keV) bands More look-directions X-Ray Sensor (XRS) (Limited functionality) Eliminate electronic range-changing EUV Sensor (EUVS) New instrument, five wavelength bands 10 - 125 nm Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) Improved sensitivity and resolution Autonomous event response GOES O planned launch Nov 5, 2008 Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Space Weather Instrumentation on GOES-R (Launch FY 2015) Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) Monitors solar, galactic and in situ electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes Medium energy electrons and protons begin on GOES 13 Low energy electrons and protons begin on GOES-R Heavy Ions begin on GOES-R Implementation phase (Contractor: Assurance Technology Corporation) Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors Earth’s time-varying vector magnetic field Included in spacecraft procurement Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite (EXIS) X-Ray Sensor (XRS) monitors whole-Sun X-ray irradiance in two bands EUV Sensor (EUVS) monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in spectral bands - improved for GOES R Implementation phase (Contractor: Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP)) Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) monitors solar flares, coronal holes, active regions-first GOES 12 New spectral bands for GOES R Implementation phase (Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center) Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) Operating Parameters Polar orbit at 850 km altitude (90 minute orbital period) AM and PM orbits to provide complete coverage Operational Satellites NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV) NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV) NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV) NOAA18 (working SEM, working SBUV) Future NOAA POES Satellites NOAA-N’ (2009) Future (NPOESS) Collaboration with DOD and NASA Collaboration with Europeans (METOP) Replaces POES, DMSP First NPOESS with space weather ~ 2013 Collaborative Polar Satellites METOP-1 (2006) European Collaboration METOP-2 (2011) European Collaboration POES SEM: Measurements of energetic particle energy deposition in upper atmosphere and solar irradiance to provide data of practical benefit to commercial and government activities and for extensive research. Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

NPOESS Space Environmental Data Capabilities Environmental Data Records (EDR) Pre-NM Performance Post-NM Performance Electron Density Profile Degraded EDR No capability Ionospheric Scintillation Neutral Density Profile Auroral Imagery Auroral Energy Deposition EDR satisfied Auroral Energy Particles Energetic Ions Electric Field Medium Energy Charged Particles Geomagnetic Field In-situ Plasma Temperature In-situ Plasma Fluctuations Auroral Boundary 2007: OFCM working with OSTP to assess N-M impact to national space environmental services. 2008: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting Bonadonna AMS 08

Uses of Space Weather Data: Magnetometer Data Needed for Space Weather Model Validation The geosynchronous magnetic field is used to validate models and eventually may be assimilated into models. It will be vital for models run in operations. CISM: Huang et al. U. Mich. Gombosi et al. U. Of Michigan (Gombosi et al.) Multiple groups of MHD modelers rely on the GOES magnetic field data for validating their models. UNH: Raeder et al. Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite Solar Observations: Irradiance (EXIS) Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite EUV Sensor (EUVS) Measures the solar EUV energy input to the upper atmosphere and improves the ability to predict upper atmospheric and ionospheric conditions. X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun X-ray irradiance in two bands and drives the Radio Blackout portion of NOAA’s Space Weather Scales. Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

High-Latitude D-Region HF Radio Absorption One-stop shopping for HF fade anywhere on the planet New product to combine polar and low latitude HF absorption Deployment as a tool later this year Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

In Situ Observations: Particles (SEISS)Space Environment In Situ Suite The SEISS is an ensemble of electron, proton, and heavy ion detecting telescopes. SEISS data drives Solar Radiation Storm portion of NOAA’s Space Weather Scales. CRRES Electron Radiation Model AF-Geospace, Courtesy of Greg Ginet, AFRL SEISS products serve user communities in the airline industry, the satellite industry, and manned space flight operations. Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

GOES-12 SXI color composite. Solar Observations: Imaging (SUVI) Solar Ultraviolet Imager GOES-12 SXI color composite. SUVI will image the same portions of the Sun’s atmosphere as SXI, but in different spectral bands that provide better access to temperature and density. SUVI will locate coronal holes, flares, and coronal mass ejection source regions. It will also detect “Over the horizon” active regions and observe active region complexity. Together, these observations support all space weather customers. Simulated GOES-R SUVI color composite (SOHO EIT data, a joint NASA/ESA research program). Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SWPC can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to provide data for operational use. ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data. IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data. Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition panels, SWPC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs that include utility to space weather forecasting and specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …) STEREO: Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by operations for forecasts and warnings of impending geomagnetic storms. Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Examples of Future Satellite Programs That Can Contribute to Space Weather COMMUNICATION/NAVIGATION OUTAGE FORECASTING SYSTEM (C/NOFS) 2008 AF/NASA S0LAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY 2008 NASA RADIATION BELT STORM PROBES 2012 NASA SWARM 2010 ESA Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Observations and Predictive The Future Observations and Predictive Capabilities Enable Space Exploration Space Shuttle, Space Station and extravehicular activities Cislunar and lunar orbits and lunar surface operations Mars Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration National Research Council Report 2006 Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Good ground-based coverage will foster conjugate studies with GOES . Ground-based Observations Contribute to Space Weather Forecasting Canadian All-Sky Imagers and Magnetometers are a ground-component of the NASA THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms) Mission. Locations of Ground Stations and the GOES Field-line Intercept GOES 12 GOES 11 Good ground-based coverage will foster conjugate studies with GOES . Movie Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting Donovan, U. of Calgary

Conclusions Space weather forecasting requires observations, but also modeling and scientific understanding. NOAA assets in space include GOES and POES, efforts to provide a new solar wind monitor, and partnerships with NASA for ACE, STEREO, … We have valuable partnerships with other agencies, and national and international organizations for using non-NOAA space-based observations as tools to improve space weather services, and as prototypes for possible future operational observations. New observations and new priorities are guided by new challenges and customer needs. Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Howard J. Singer, Chief Scientist NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Contact Information: Howard J. Singer, Chief Scientist NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303 497 6959 howard.singer@noaa.gov Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting